Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact of a decrease in GDP as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic on (1) legislative, and (2) manifesto, commitments for expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

The UK’s fiscal council, the Office of Budget Responsibility, makes forecasts for GDP. They have published a coronavirus reference scenario, which they continue to develop and update, which can be found on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s website. In their public commentary the Office for Budget Responsibility have said that the fiscal and monetary support measures of the UK authorities “help to limit the adverse impact on potential output and thus future GDP once the crisis has passed”.

The government will take stock of the impact of the covid-19 public health and economic emergency on the forecast for the economy and public finances through the Budget process. Further details of spending plans will be set out in due course, including through a Spending Review later this year.