Question to the Department for International Development:

To ask Her Majesty's Government whether the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing in Africa at a slower rate than they expected; and if so, what assessment they have made of why that is the case.

The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is currently increasing more rapidly in Africa today than many other regions in the world. Currently cases in Africa are growing by approximately 5% each day compared with 3% in Asia and 1% in Europe. Cases continue to rise in Africa and while overall it took 52 days to reach the first 10,000 cases, it took only 11 days to move from 30,000 to 50,000 cases, and Africa now has over 100,000 cases.

However, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are growing at a slower rate than was the case in Europe and Asia at the same stage of their epidemics. This slower growth in Africa may be explained by under-reporting due to low testing rates. For example, as of 7 May, an average of 69 tests were carried out in Africa per 100,000 people compared to over 30 times this rate in Europe. It is possible that the lower mortality to date could be as a result of Africa being the youngest continent demographically, with a lower proportion of older people who are at higher risk of death. It is important to remain vigilant for the potential increase in cases that Africa could see in the coming months. Africa is also likely to see disproportionate indirect impacts of COVID-19 on wider health, economic, and social outcomes, which will be important to mitigate.

So far, the UK has pledged £764 million of UK aid to help end this pandemic as quickly as possible. This includes support to Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine to model the future trajectory of the pandemic in low- and middle-income countries. This will help understand how COVID-19 is progressing in Africa and help to inform governments in the region on how best to respond to the pandemic.