Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask His Majesty's Government what the proven reoffending rate for prisoners released on licence from indeterminate sentences for public protection was across all periods for which data is held.

On 1 September, the Lord Chancellor announced that the Government will bring an end to the sentence of imprisonment for public protection for those who continue to serve it and will bring forward legislation to do this by the end of this Parliament. These are complex cases, involving important public protection and victim considerations. Reform will take time to get right.

The Ministry of Justice publishes data on adult proven reoffending as part of its regular Proven Reoffending Statistics. These statistics are broken down by custodial sentence length and include offenders serving Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences.

The proven reoffending rate for offenders released from custody between July to September 2024 from IPP sentences was 3.3%.

Annual average figures for the proven reoffending rate for IPP offenders released from custody, from April 2012 onwards, have been provided in the table below.

(1) These figures have been derived from administrative IT systems which, as with any large-scale recording system, are subject to possible errors with data entry and processing.

(2) Proven reoffences are measured across a one year follow-up period, and a further 6 month waiting period to allow for offences to progress through court.

(3) Annual figures are calculated by adding up the number of offenders in the cohort, and the number of reoffenders in the four preceding 3-month offender cohorts.

(4) A certain proportion of offenders who could not be matched to the Police National Computer (PNC) are excluded from the offender cohort. Therefore, these numbers do not represent all proven offenders

(5) Data regarding offenders released from indeterminate sentences up to September 2015 are extracted from the Public Protection Unit Database (PPUD). Data regarding offenders released from indeterminate sentences from October 2015 onwards are extracted from nDelius.

(6) Caution should be used when comparing rates between different years or quarters. The size of the underlying cohort of IPP releases has been falling in recent years and quarters, making the figures more volatile. For example, the number of IPP releases in the cohort in 2023/24 was 176, in comparison to 595 in 2017/18.

(7) Cohorts from 2018/19 onwards are affected by either the Covid-19 pandemic and related lockdowns or operational restrictions, or the continued recovery of the courts system post the pandemic. Additionally, more recent cohorts may have been impacted by policy changes such as Probation Reset. It is not possible to separate out any individual policy changes on the overall rates.

The next publication is scheduled for 29 October 2026.