Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to changes to travel patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, what plans they have to review the forecasts in their report HS2 Phase One full business case, published on 15 April 2020, specifically the findings that (1) passenger demand between (a) London and Birmingham/Coventry, and (b) London and Manchester/Stockport/Manchester Airport would grow by over 80 per cent, and (2) passenger demand between London and Glasgow would more than double, by 2036–7.

The impact of COVID on demand for travel continues to unfold, and the Department is undertaking research and surveys to develop demand scenarios and understand possible impacts on business cases across the transport portfolio.

The Phase 2b Western Leg strategic outline business case, due to be published in early 2022, will use demand scenarios that explore the impact of COVID to inform the business case. This will be the first time an initial assessment of the pandemic’s impact on the HS2 project will have been undertaken.

HS2 is a long-term project and delivers travel opportunities over a long period of time (i.e. in excess of 100 years), limiting any shorter-term effects of COVID on travel patterns. The project will open up new employment and regeneration opportunities for millions of people, contribute to regional and national economic development, and have long-lasting impacts which we are not able to fully model or appraise.