Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what plans they have to publish up-to-date forecasts of future demand for travel by rail; whether any such forecasts (1) will provide separate data for (a) commuting, and (b) long distance travel, and (2) will include reductions in peak and other passenger rail services; and what plans they have to ensure that any freed-up rail capacity will be made available to improve rail freight services.

The Department has not historically published forecasts of future rail demand.

The Department continues to actively work to understand the impact of coronavirus on rail demand, including close working with industry. As part of this we are ensuring that we use a range of rail demand scenarios based on a series of factors that could drive rail demand over the short and long term to influence decisions, and which does consider the impact on commuting and long-distance travel. These scenarios do not consider reductions in peak and other passenger services.

Given the considerable uncertainty that the pandemic has caused, these scenarios cannot be used as forecasts. However, they do reflect some of the possible impacts of the pandemic on future rail demand.

Network Rail (NR) has enabled Freight Operating Companies (FOCs) to run longer and heavier trains on the network in light of the reduced passenger timetable during the COVID-19 pandemic, delivering environmental and efficiency benefits. The Department continues to work closely with NR and FOC’s to explore further opportunities.