Transport

(asked on 21st January 2021) - View Source

Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report by the Economics Statistics Centre of Excellence Estimating the UK population during the pandemic, published on 14 January, what plans they have to change their plans for transport provision including HS2 as a result of population changes following (1) the COVID-19 pandemic, and (2) the UK’s departure from the EU.


Answered by
Baroness Vere of Norbiton Portrait
Baroness Vere of Norbiton
Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
This question was answered on 27th January 2021

The Department’s investment decisions are based on a fair and rigorous appraisal system which assesses schemes in relation to their strategic fit, value for money, deliverability, commercial and financial considerations. This appraisal is based on forecasts of travel demand underpinned by official projections for population and economic growth produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

While it is too early for us to fully understand the impacts that Covid-19 and the UK’s departure from the EU may have on travel demand, DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance requires scheme promoters to undertake sensitivity tests to understand the resilience of investment decisions to key input assumptions. For HS2, it is worth noting that the Full Business Case for Phase One published in April looked at both high and low demand scenarios, underpinned by population and economic growth forecasts. The analysis showed that even in a scenario where demand is relatively low, there is still value in pressing ahead with HS2. We have committed to publishing an uncertainty toolkit this year which will provide advice on the analysis and presentation of uncertainty in transport appraisal and modelling, including the use of scenarios.

The Department is also committed to longer term strategic priorities, publishing three Priority Outcomes as part of Spending Review 2020. One of these is to improve connectivity across the United Kingdom. HS2 will play an important role in improving connectivity and will help to spread jobs and opportunity across the country. This will be key in the country’s recovery from the COVID pandemic.

Reticulating Splines