Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what are the reasonable worst-case scenarios that they have asked local resilience forums to work on.

Local Resilience Forums are required under the Civil Contingencies Act to compile and publish community risk registers setting out the main risks in their areas to both raise awareness and guide contingency planning. In doing this, they are guided by, among other things, the National Risk Assessment (NRA) which covers the range of risks that could cause a civil emergency in the UK, and provides a list of the common consequences of these risks in the form of planning assumptions. These cover the maximum scale, duration and impact that could reasonably be expected to occur as a result of emergencies.

The NRA is classified for national security reasons, and it is therefore not possible to share details of the reasonable worst-case scenarios or planning assumptions. A declassified version is available in the form of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (NRR). This is also provided to the local planning community, and has been placed in the House of Lords Library. Most Community Risk Registers are also available online.