Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made about the likelihood of the UK falling into recession during the course of this year; and what plans they have to avoid it.

Like other advanced economies, the UK is affected by global economic challenges, including the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine. Support provided over the past two years has put the UK economy in a good position to deal with these challenges, with a record number of employees on payrolls and a strong economic recovery from the pandemic. Annual growth in 2021 was the fastest in the G7, and GDP data for Q1 2022 showed the UK had the joint fastest growth in the G7.

The government continues to make progress against our plan for growth to support the economy, including a landmark capital uplift in the Spending Review 2021, the creation of the UK Infrastructure Bank, more funding for apprenticeships and skills training, a commitment to double public investment in R&D, and the launch of the UK-wide Help to Grow scheme. We are also taking significant action to support households with the cost of living totalling around £37bn this year.

The Office for Budget Responsibility are the government’s official forecaster, and they will update their forecasts for UK GDP in the Autumn.