Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of import duties on goods entering the UK from the EU on inflation.

Latest data from the Department for Business and Trade shows that 94.9% of goods entering Great Britain from the EU did so tariff-free in 2023, broadly unchanged from 94.7% in 2022. This data is available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/preference-utilisation-of-uk-trade-in-goods-2023/preference-utilisation-of-uk-goods-in-2023.

The Government wants to find ways to make it easier for businesses to trade with our partners and so is seeking views on potential UK accession to the Pan-Euro Mediterranean Convention on Rules of Origin through a call for evidence led by the Department for Business and Trade. You can find this information here: https://www.gov.uk/government/calls-for-evidence/pan-euro-mediterranean-convention-on-rules-of-origin-pem

Forecasting the economy, including the impact of Government policy decisions, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which published its latest forecast on 26 March 2025. HM Treasury does not produce forecasts for the UK economy and has not made an assessment of the impact of import duties on inflation.