Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what (a) forecasts and (b) modelling the Government has conducted on the potential effect of a second wave of covid-19 infections this winter; and what steps he has put in place to manage potential increased demand on the NHS.

The Government is actively planning and preparing for the potential impact of COVID-19 infections during winter 2020-21. National COVID-19 planning is in part informed on a reasonable worst case scenario, reflecting current scientific advice.

As the evidence base and scientific understanding evolves, the Government seeks to update planning assumptions, informed by advice and modelling from Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and its subgroups. In recognition of the importance of transparency in these unprecedented times, SAGE has been publishing minutes and papers on the Government website.

To prepare the National Health Service for winter, the Government is providing an additional £3 billion of funding to the NHS. This includes funding to allow the NHS to maintain the Nightingale surge capacity and continue to use the extra hospital capacity available within the independent sector.