Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, whether she has made an estimate of the number of children who may move from independent to state sector schools as a result of the planned introduction of VAT on independent schools in Reigate constituency; and whether she has made an assessment of the adequacy of local state school places available.

In line with research from the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, the government does not anticipate the ending of the VAT exemption that private schools enjoy to prompt notable movement into the state sector, and any movement is expected to take place over several years. This research can be found here: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.

There is significant spare capacity in existing state schools. The department collects pupil forecasts and school capacity data from local authorities annually through the school capacity survey and this data shows that in May 2023, 11.7% of primary capacity and 11.5% of secondary capacity was unfilled nationally, meaning school places are available in many parts of the country. The department will monitor demand and capacity using its normal processes and continue to work with local authorities to meet any pressures.