Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to the Answer of 19 May 2025 to Question 52414 on Personal Independence Payment, how many recipients of PIP are forecast by her Department to lose their PIP Daily Living Entitlement after all PIP reassessments have taken place over the projected six year timeframe.

It would take 10 years for all claimants on Personal Independence Payment (PIP) to be assessed under the new criteria as many claimants receive 10-year awards. For claimants receiving PIP when the 4-point policy is introduced in November 2026, we estimate that by 2036/37, 440,000 claimants will not receive the daily living component of PIP who would have under current rules, after behavioural effects are taken into account.

No one will lose access to PIP immediately. The changes, subject to parliamentary approval, would be brought in from November 2026. After that date, no one will lose PIP without first being reassessed by a trained assessor or healthcare professional, who assesses individual needs and circumstance. Reassessments happen on average every 3 years. Someone who didn’t score 4 points in an activity in a previous assessment may well score 4 points in a future assessment – not least as many conditions tend to get worse, not better, over time.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has taken into account expected behavioural changes in its numbers and determined that 370,000 (1 in 10) current PIP recipients may lose entitlement by 2029/30 at their next award review after changes to PIP eligibility come into effect in November 2026. We use the same methodology as the OBR to provide the comparable figure for 2036/37.

We are consulting on how best to support those who are affected by the new eligibility changes, including how to make sure health and eligible care needs are met. PIP is not based on condition diagnosis but on functional disability as the result of one or more conditions, and is awarded as a contribution to the additional costs which result.

We have also announced a wider review of the PIP assessment which I will lead, and we will bring together a range of experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience to consider how best to do this and to start the process as part of preparing for a review. We will provide further details as plans progress.

Even with these reforms, the overall number of people on PIP and DLA is expected to rise by 750,000 by the end of this parliament and spending will rise from £23bn in 2024/25 to £31bn in 2029/30.