Travel
(asked on 7th June 2016) - View Source
Question to the Department for Transport:
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, with reference to the Answer of 24 November 2014 to Question 214853, on travel, whether his Department has produced an updated National Transport Model estimate of future (a) annual trips by mode per person and (b) average length of trips by mode.
The Department last published forecasts of road traffic in 2015 www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015. Estimates of future trips by mode in the format set out in UIN 214853 were not in this publication but are set out below for one of our five forecast scenarios (scenario 1)
Average Trips per person annually by mode (GB, RTF15 Scenario 1)
Annual trips | Walk | Cycle | Car Driver | Car Passenger | Bus | Rail | Total |
2015 | 307.0 | 22.1 | 453.4 | 228.1 | 84.9 | 24.4 | 1,119.9 |
2020 | 302.3 | 21.1 | 468.3 | 223.7 | 79.3 | 23.9 | 1,118.5 |
2025 | 298.2 | 20.1 | 483.1 | 219.5 | 73.3 | 23.2 | 1,117.4 |
2030 | 296.1 | 20.0 | 488.2 | 216.4 | 71.5 | 23.7 | 1,115.9 |
2035 | 291.7 | 20.6 | 497.0 | 215.0 | 67.0 | 23.5 | 1,114.8 |
2040 | 290.4 | 20.5 | 503.9 | 213.8 | 64.8 | 24.1 | 1,117.5 |
Average length of trips by mode (GB, RTF15 Scenario 1)
miles | Walk | Cycle | Car Driver | Car Passenger | Bus | Rail | Total |
2015 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 24.6 | 7.1 |
2020 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 24.5 | 7.2 |
2025 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 24.5 | 7.2 |
2030 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 24.6 | 7.3 |
2035 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 24.5 | 7.3 |
2040 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 24.7 | 7.3 |
Notes on the tables:
- These are for personal trips based on main mode of travel. The National Transport Model (NTM) does not produce mode information for different stages of the same trip.
- These estimates are based on scenario 1 in the Road Traffic Forecasts 2015 (see www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-traffic-forecasts-2015).
- Figures are for Great Britain and so cannot be directly compared to published National Travel Survey statistics on average trips and trip lengths by mode, which are for England only.
- The estimated number of walking trips is higher than latest National Travel Survey statistics. This is due to the estimates being based on older NTS data when walking trips were at a higher level. Forecasts for car travel are calibrated to actual traffic statistics so are not considered to be affected by this variance.
- The forecasts do not account for the Departments Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy, which was still in development when these forecasts were estimated.
- There were five scenarios published in RTF15. Scenario 1 has been presented here for consistency with the methodology used in the answer to UIN 214853. The other scenarios are based on alternative forecasting assumptions and will produce different forecast numbers of trips.
- The NTM road traffic forecasts are based on our understanding of the way people make travel choices, the expected path of the key drivers and travel behaviour at the time the forecast is made and assume no change in government policy beyond that already announced.
- Estimates of future trips and trip lengths by modes other than car travel are calculated solely for the purpose of forecasting traffic, and are not used as forecasts by the Department for policy or appraisal purposes.
- The NTM is not the Department’s primary forecasting tool for rail. The forecasts will not match with rail forecasts the Department has published elsewhere.
- The National Transport Model is being updated to incorporate latest data on travel behaviour, including on mode of travel and distances travelled.