Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to the Office for Budget Responsibility's March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: expenditure, Table 4.11 on Health- and disability-related welfare spending, what assessment has his Department has made of the potential causes of the forecast rise in Personal Independence Payment expenditure for working people from £21.9 billion in 2024-25 to £37.0 billion in 2030-31, and what proportion is due to (a) cost inflation and (b) more people claiming.

Chapter 4 of the Timms Review evidence pack (Annex B – DWP evidence pack - GOV.UK) sets out factors which have influenced the increase in claims and expenditure in recent years. While this is based on historical influences, many of these factors will continue to apply to the forecast including demographic changes, increasing recognition of certain types of health condition and growing awareness of PIP within a much larger population of disabled people.