Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what recent assessment he has made of trends in the level of avian influenza.

The Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) leads Government action on animal disease control and carry out assessments (published on gov.uk) of disease risks in the UK and globally, to help the Government anticipate future threats to animal health. Both highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) HPAI H5N5 and H5N1 have been detected in both wild and kept birds in Great Britain this winter. Currently, the risk of HPAI H5 in wild birds in Great Britain is assessed as very high (event occurs almost certainly). While the risk of poultry exposure to HPAI H5 in Great Britain is assessed as high where there is suboptimal or poor biosecurity and medium where good biosecurity is consistently applied at all times.

It is too early to predict the outlook for future seasons and risk levels may remain heightened for some time or increase further this winter, associated with the migratory pattern of waterfowl and environmental conditions becoming more favourable for virus survival over winter. Forecasting the future number of HPAI outbreaks is difficult. Uncertainty includes how effective biosecurity is on poultry farms, whether wild bird populations have now been exposed in high enough numbers to reduce the impact, and whether pre-exposure reduces transmission in wild birds.