Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, whether his Department has conducted an impact assessment for the ongoing covid-19 restrictions on international travel and the economic impact of those restrictions on the economy.

The Government’s priority remains to protect public health, and we have to take a cautious approach to opening up international travel, given the risk posed by variants remains significant. The traffic light system commenced on 17 May and the list is reviewed every 3 weeks; decisions are taken by Ministers based on the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) risk assessments and wider factors. The Government has also announced the intention to remove isolation rules for those travelling from amber list countries who are fully vaccinated, which will support the safe return of international travel.

The Government recognises the challenging circumstances facing sectors, including the travel industry, that are dependent on international travel as a result of Covid-19. The Government will continue to support the travel industry, businesses and individuals during this period - including through various government-backed loans, new grants and the extended furlough and self-employed support schemes. The aerospace sector and its aviation customers are being supported with over £11 billion made available through loan guarantees, support for exporters, the Bank of England’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility and grants for research and development.

As set out last November in the Government’s published analysis of the health, economic and social effects of Covid-19, we cannot forecast with confidence the precise impact of specific changes to specific restrictions, as this will depend on a broad range of factors which are, in many cases, difficult to estimate. This includes the economic impact of restrictions on international travel.

The Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy and public finances, these are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR’s latest forecast (March 3) highlighted that the economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the unprecedented fiscal support has caused significant but necessary increase in borrowing and debt.