Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what steps her Department is taking to monitor capacity in state schools in the context of potential pupil transfers from the private to state sector following the introduction of VAT on school fees.

The government predicts that 35,000 pupils will move into UK state schools in the long-term steady state following the removal of the VAT exemption to school fees. As such, the impact on the state education system as a whole is expected to be small.

This increase in the state sector represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. The number expected to move before the end of the 2024/25 academic year is around 3,000. The government expects the associated revenue costs of pupils entering the state sector to steadily increase to a peak of around £0.3 billion after several years.

Every year lots of pupils move between schools, including between the private and state-funded sectors. Local authorities routinely support parents that need a state-funded school place, including where private schools have closed. Where local authorities are experiencing difficulties in ensuring there are enough school places for children that need them, the department will offer support and advice.

The department collects pupil forecasts and school capacity data from local authorities annually through the School Capacity survey and this data shows that in May 2023, 11.7% of primary capacity and 11.5% of secondary capacity was unfilled nationally, meaning school places are available in many parts of the country. The department will monitor demand and capacity using our normal processes and continue to work with local authorities to meet any pressures.

The department provides capital funding through the Basic Need grant to support local authorities to provide school places, based on their own pupil forecasts and school capacity data. They can use this funding to provide places in new schools or through expansions of existing schools.