Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, with reference to the Written Statement of 17 April 2023, HCWS710, on Achieving Smokefree 2030: cutting smoking and stopping kids vaping, whether his Department has conducted modelling on the potential impact of the measures outlined in the statement on progress towards the target of reducing smoking rates to 5% or less by 2030.

Annex 1 of ‘Stopping the start: our new plan to create a smokefree generation’ sets out the modelling used to forecast changes in smoking prevalence over time based on legislating for a smokefree generation. This modelling is preliminary and will continue to be further refined ahead of publication of a full impact assessment.

Annex 1 is available at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stopping-the-start-our-new-plan-to-create-a-smokefree-generation/annex-1-modelling-assumptions