Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of potential growth in passengers on high-speed services from Snodland to London St Pancras in the next rail franchise period.

In developing the specification for train services and rolling stock capacity in the next franchise, the Department considered forecast changes in population and employment alongside other factors which influence rail demand such as fuel prices.

For the purpose of this analysis, the Department groups stations. Snodland forms part of the ‘West Kent’ group. Demand is considered on a flow basis – for example West Kent to London rather than for individual stations or services.

Forecast demand growth over the next franchise for the West Kent group is 0.55% per annum. In reality individual stations may grow higher or lower than this rate. In determining the specification for the new franchise the Department sought to cater for this demand across conventional and high speed services. The next franchisee must meet this specification no later than December 2022.