Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health, what the obesity rate is for (a) adults and (b) children under the age of 16; and what forecast the Government has made of such rates in 2020.

Data published by the Health and Social Care Information Centre in December 2014 showed that in England in 2013 24.9% of adults and 15.2% of children aged from two to 15 years were obese. New data will be published later this month.

The UK Health Forum modelled adult obesity prevalence, ‘Risk factor based modelling for Public Health England’ (2014), and estimated 30% of adults aged 18-100 would be obese by 2020. This was based on Health Survey for England data from 2000 to 2010 and assumes trends continue.

No assessment has been carried out on the likely level of child obesity in 2020 specifically. However, predictions for rates up to 2050 were modelled for both adults and children in the Government's Foresight report: “Tackling Obesities: Future Choices” (2007) using data from 1994-2004. This modelling suggested that by 2025, 21% of boys aged 6-10 years and 11% of boys aged 11-15 years were predicted to be obese. For girls 6-10 years and 11-15 years, 14% and 22% respectively were predicted to be obese. These predictions assumed that the 1994-2004 trends continued and that no interventions successfully changed the direction of these trends.