Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether he has made an estimate of the number of (a) cars and (b) vans on the road in (a) 2030, (b) 2040 and (c) 2050.

Vehicle numbers are estimated as an intermediate step in the process of forecasting of future vehicle milage.

In 2022 the Government published the National Road Traffic Projections (NRTP)¹, which projects future demand for road transport under a range of scenarios. The outputs provided below correspond to the ‘core’ scenario of the NRTP. As set out in the NRTP there is significant uncertainty related to forecasts of this nature and a range of alternative futures are also feasible. These projections are estimated using DfT’s Road Carbon and Fuel Fleet (RoCaFF) model which forecasts changes in fleet composition and can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dft-analytical-assurance-framework-strength-in-numbers/dft-register-of-business-critical-models-april-2021

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-road-traffic-projections