Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to the statistics on support for a maximum of two children published by HM Revenue & Customs and the Department for Work and Pensions on 28 June 2018, what analysis his Department has (a) commissioned and (b) undertaking on the number of affected households in (a) the first year of that policy and (b) the estimate published in the Government’s Impact Assessment in July 2015.

The Government has already undertaken analysis of the estimate published in the Impact Assessment in July 2015. The analysis found that the difference between the estimate in the Impact Assessment and the published statistics is due to a combination factors, including improvements to the methodology used to identify the affected population, divergences between the economic determinants used to model the policy and actual outturn, and changes in the underlying claimant population. No formal analysis of the separate impact of these factors has been made.