Question to the Ministry of Justice:

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, pursuant to the Government's early release scheme, (a) which categories of serious offenders are eligible for release and (b) how many offenders convicted of rape and other serious violent or sexual offences have been released, or are expected to be released, under the scheme.

First, I would like to express my sincere sympathy with all victims of these appalling crimes. This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model which will help ensure there are always enough places for the courts to be able to send people to custody in order to keep the public safe. The worst thing for victims would be running out of prison space and not being able to lock up dangerous offenders.

The progression model amends release points for offenders on Standard Determinate Sentences.

Over 18,000 offenders serving more serious sentences like Extended Determinate Sentences or life sentences will be unaffected by these reforms and will be kept in prison for as long as they are now. Once released, offenders will be managed under strict licence conditions in the community. Offenders released on licence can be recalled if they breach their conditions or if they cannot be safely managed in the community.

It is not possible to know future release data precisely so far in advance, including because eligible offenders might be sentenced to additional time in prison between now and implementation, nor can we estimate any added days for bad behaviour committed which will determine their release point.

The Ministry of Justice routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.