Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what assessment he has made of the effect of the abolition of the M4 second Severn Crossing tolls on 31 December 2018 on levels of road congestion on the M4 between Bristol and Cardiff.

Prior to the Severn Crossings consultation in 2017 the Government modelled several policy options.

Modelling results for future traffic and congestion impacts are available for certain strategic roads, including the M4 between Bristol and Cardiff, comparing toll levels prior to the recent end of concession continuing and a scenario with no toll from 2018. For 2022, with the previously existing toll, the modelling shows a section of the M4 adjacent to Bristol, specifically between junctions 20 and 21 westbound, would be operating with traffic levels above free flow capacity. With no toll, the modelling shows that the free flow capacity is exceeded more often.

The removal of toll barriers is expected to speed up traffic in the immediate vicinity of the crossing, since there will no longer be a need to queue to pay.

The modelling enabled estimates to be made of economic benefits from the no-toll scenario. This reflects the increased affordability following the abolition of tolls at the end of 2018 accruing to users of the crossing in both directions. This will support motorists, residents and businesses across Wales and the south-west, helping rebalance the economy as part of the Industrial Strategy.