Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, pursuant to the Answer of 3 February 2020 to Question 9041, what assumptions the National Transport Model (NTM) makes on the (a) levels of cycling, walking, rail and bus travel (i) in 2020 and (ii) after 2020; and (b) changes in those levels compared with the model’s baseline year, in order to produce NMT's forecasts of future motorised road traffic.

The National Transport Model (NTM) does not make explicit assumptions about levels of cycling, walking, rail and bus travel. To account for the influence of these modes on road traffic the NTM includes assumptions about the convenience and cost of these alternatives.

For cycling and walking this was based purely on travel time. In Road Traffic Forecasts 2018 (RTF18) assumed cycling and walking speeds were set in the model base year and remained constant in all scenario and forecast years.

For bus and rail, this included both travel time and fares. In RTF18 the assumptions around rail fares were based on current fares policy. Bus fares were assumed to grow in line with the Retail Price Index (RPI) plus an average of historical increases.