Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate her Department has made of the number of pupils in Bedfordshire who will leave the independent school system as a result of VAT on school fees.

The department has made no estimate of the number of pupils in Bedfordshire who will leave the independent school system as a result of VAT on school fees.

The government predicts that, in the long-run steady state, there will be 37,000 fewer pupils in the private sector in the UK as a result of the removal of the VAT exemption applied to school fees. This represents around 6% of the current private school population. This movement is expected to take place over several years.

Of the 37,000 pupil reduction in the private sector, the government estimates an increase of 35,000 pupils in the state sector in the steady state following the VAT policy taking effect, with the other 2,000 consisting of international pupils who do not move into the UK state system, and domestic pupils moving into homeschooling. This state sector increase represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. This movement is expected to take place over several years.

The impact on individual local authorities will interact with other pressures and vary. Local authorities have a statutory duty to provide full-time education for all children of statutory school age in their area, suitable for their age, aptitude, ability and any special educational needs and/or disabilities.

The department works with local authorities to help them fulfil their duty to secure school places. Requirements for state-funded places for children that would have attended a private school will be addressed in each local authority through normal processes.