Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what estimate he has made of the potential impact of the Border Target Operating Model on food price inflation in (a) 2024, (b) 2025 and (c) 2026.

Initial analysis has indicated that the policies introduced under the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM)would lead to an approximate increase in consumer food price inflation of less than 0.2% over a 3-year period. The cost of BTOM controls is equivalent to 0.4% of the UK’s agri-food Gross Value Added of £127bn in 2021, which serves as a proxy for food prices.

An outbreak of a major disease could have a much more significant impact. The 2001 outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease cost £12.8bn in 2022 prices, £4.8bn of which was cost to Government and £8bn cost to the private sector.