Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to his evidence to the Work and Pensions Select Committee on 30th November 2022, HC 549, for what reasons his Department estimates that 400,000 of the one million remaining Employment Support Allowance recipients will now naturally migrate onto Universal Credit through a change of circumstances by 2028.

The Department estimates there are currently around 1m Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) income-based claimants (who are not also on Child Tax Credits) and around 600k of these might still be claiming ESA in April 2028.

This number is lower because, claimants have a change of circumstances and naturally migrate to Universal Credit, (i) claimants leave benefit altogether (e.g., find a job), (ii) claimants reach State Pension age and are no longer eligible for working age benefits.