North Africa and the Near and Middle East
William Bain Excerpts(13 years ago)
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Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)
It is always a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Beckenham (Bob Stewart). I congratulate him on his speech and his generosity in leaving time for others to speak.
I follow the sentiments of the hon. and learned Member for Sleaford and North Hykeham (Stephen Phillips), my hon. Friend the Member for Ilford South (Mike Gapes) and my right hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Mr Alexander) in saying how fitting it is that, on this day, when the people of Egypt start to go to the polls in their parliamentary general election, we are holding this debate on the future of the middle east and north Africa.
I shall restrict my remarks to the situation in Syria and Bahrain. I hope it is helpful to the House for me to take us back to the origin of the protest on 18 March, when Syrian Government forces detained 15 children for spraying anti-regime graffiti on a wall. When civilians took to the street to protest against that heavy-handed crackdown, the same security forces brought the uprising to a brief and brutal conclusion by killing four protestors. The next day, thousands more people took to the streets.
To date, Syria continues its ruthless practice of violently extinguishing protests, no matter how peaceful, as a precondition to any engagement with the opposition parties. The UN estimates that 3,500 protestors have been killed since the protests began. The non-governmental organisation Freedom House estimated that in 2010 between 2,000 and 2,500 political prisoners in Syria were held. It described Assad’s regime as an “ossified dictatorship”.
Until the early part of this year, Syria had perhaps somewhat successfully portrayed an image of stability to the media in the west. In an interview in The Wall Street Journal on 31 January, President Assad asserted with some confidence that Syria would not fall victim to the same fate as the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. He said:
“Where there is divergence between your policy and the people’s beliefs and interests, you will have this vacuum that creates disturbance. So people do not only live on interests; they also live on beliefs”.
The ideology of the Syrian people to which Assad referred in that quote was the opposition to Israel. Syria and Israel have clashed militarily on a number of occasions. However, he failed to recognise that the people’s beliefs transcend religion and that Syrians believe in genuine economic and social reform and in democracy and equality.
At an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Indonesia last week, the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the situation in Syria could soon result in civil war. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has taken the view
“that it already looks like one.”
It is difficult to refute that argument when recounting the unfathomable cruelty that Assad has waged against his own people. However, unlike the Libyan opposition, whose strategy appeared haphazard but who were coherent and single-minded, the Syrian opposition are unfortunately splintered. There have been some interesting diplomatic developments. The Turkish Prime Minister recently said:
“It is not heroism to fight against your own people.”
His criticism is particularly significant, as he previously referred to his Syrian counterparts as “his brothers”. The Turkish President, Abdullah Gul, last week noted that Syria had reached
“the point of no return.”
Where to now for Syria? Michael Broning, director of the east Jerusalem office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, a German political foundation, has noted:
“Syria has recently experienced annual economic growth rates of around 5 percent, but the country is still plagued by staggering unemployment, increasing costs of living, stagnating wages, and widespread poverty.”
The UN estimates that in eastern Syria alone 800,000 people live in extreme poverty, owing to a sustained period of low rainfall. When he succeeded his father Hafez in 2000, Assad moved towards economic liberalisation with the creation of a stock market and the opening of the banking sector to private banks, yet Syria is rated 144th out of 183 countries in the World Bank’s latest report on the ease of doing business. Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at Oklahoma university, considers the prospects for economic development to be bleak, noting recently:
“Eventually things will fall apart.”
Unlike with events in Libya, the Arab League has been reticent in its approach to the uprising in Syria. Although the causes of the Arab uprisings in recent months are deeply complex and entrenched, in some cases, they stem from a culmination of decades of repression and underdevelopment. Although the eventual catalysts differ from state to state, the long-term causes appear to be consistent: high inflation, rising food prices, mass unemployment, absence of social mobility and human rights abuses. Economic and social reform in the middle east is arguably as important as political reform in the shape of overthrowing autocrats.
Like Syria, Bahrain is an example of an unrepresentative regime—a 70% Shi’ite majority is governed by a Sunni, pro-US regime. Indeed, some commentators have argued that the US has been reticent in its stance on Bahrain, relative to its sharp condemnation of other Arab autocrats, but the US Secretary of State said recently that the tumult in Bahrain serves Iran’s interests. She said:
“Meaningful reform and equal treatment for all Bahrainis are in Bahrain’s interests, in the region’s interest, and in ours—while endless unrest benefits Iran and extremists.”
Last week the Bahrain independent commission of inquiry cleared Iran of being the hidden hand behind the Shi’a protests, which in itself is encouraging, but under no circumstances should we see the heat taken off the Bahrain Government. Last week’s report also surprised many middle east commentators for its candour and acceptance of the Bahrain Government’s accountability. The report contains a number of damning indictments of the security forces’ conduct, including: the admission of deaths of 35 protesters; the admission of lethal force being used against protesters, leading to civilian deaths; the admission that torture was pervasive among those detained and led to five deaths; the admission that female prisoners were threatened with rape; and, most importantly, the admission that the reforms must now be rapidly implemented to inhibit the litany of human rights abuses that mark the spring uprising in Bahrain. But that acceptance of culpability has also to be followed by purposeful reforms to ensure that the victims of human rights abuses receive justice, and that safeguards are established in law to prevent any repeat. The BICI report details evidence that imprisoned protestors were beaten, whipped, hooded and subjected to electric shock treatment, and those findings must lead to real change.
Dramatic changes are also needed to the economy in Bahrain. Unemployment stands at 15% and youth unemployment is at 20%—and that, too, is reflective of other states in the Arab region. In Libya, unemployment is at 30%, and in Yemen, where President Ali Abdullah Saleh last week signed the deal to transfer power, it stands at 35%.
We have a new generation of young people who are unwilling to accept the inequality experienced by past generations, and it falls to the international community to ensure that the brave efforts of protestors in Manama and elsewhere throughout the middle east have not been in vain, and that the promise of the Arab spring is not squandered this winter.
North Africa and the Middle East
William Bain Excerpts(13 years, 9 months ago)
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Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)
It is a pleasure to speak in the debate and to follow the interesting and thought-provoking speech made by the hon. Member for Penrith and The Border (Rory Stewart).
We are living through extraordinary times when a single incident in Tunisia has sparked a movement against dictatorship and repression, and a movement for democracy, human rights and freedom, throughout the regions of north Africa and the middle east. It is still too early to say whether these times possess the precise significance of the events that led to the fall of the communist regimes in eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but the international community must ensure through its collective action over the coming days and weeks that the Arab spring does not become simply another Prague spring. While democracy should never be imposed by external forces, we should endeavour to assist those who are campaigning for human rights and freedoms in their hour of need.
Let me turn first to the most pressing area of concern: Libya. The unrest there began on 16 February following the arrest of Fathi Terbil, the human rights lawyer, and peaceful demonstrations in the east of the country, which for many years has been left in a state of under-development by the Gaddafi regime. Those protests led to a widespread rebellion against the regime and then the bloody fight back that the regime has launched against its own people. It is clear that the Gaddafi regime has lost its authority to remain in power, and the Libyan people should be supported in their efforts to remove it.
There is a need for immediate action by the international community to prevent further attacks by the Gaddafi regime on the protesters and the interim national council. While we have been engaged in this debate, the BBC and Reuters have said that air strikes have been reported on the outskirts of Benghazi and at Benghazi airport, so the situation is clearly fast-moving. If the regime launches a brutal counter-attack, there is a strong possibility of a severe loss of life in Benghazi, so the international community must be ready to consider measures such as a ceasefire and a no-fly zone over Libya. Latest reports, and indeed the Foreign Secretary’s opening speech, indicate that the UN Security Council might consider and vote on the draft resolution on Libya in the next few days.
Views differ about the nature of any no-fly zone. General McPeak, the former US air force chief of staff who helped to oversee no-fly zones in Iraq and the Adriatic, has advocated a no-fly zone over rebel-held areas, which would not require the incapacitation of air defence systems. Other no-fly zones have been extremely demanding to police, as they have required AWACS, aircraft refuelling support and round-the-clock monitoring. We should be mindful of what we might ask of the pilots involved in policing a no-fly zone, as well as the risk of incidents of friendly fire. A no-fly zone did not stop the Srebrenica massacre in 1995, but if such a measure proves vital for humanitarian reasons in the coming days and weeks, the Security Council should follow the lead of the Arab League.
Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Con)
A no-fly zone did not stop what happened in Srebrenica—I was there earlier than that—but the no-fly zone over Bosnia was ineffective because it was not properly set up. If we are going to do something, let us do it properly and make sure that it works—otherwise forget it.
Mr Bain
The hon. Gentleman makes an important point, and one I will refer to later in my remarks.
We ought to follow the lead of the opposition national council and the EU and take the steps required to protect against future and further atrocities by the regime. There are important contrasts with the more complex no-fly zone that operated in Iraq between 1991 and 2003, which required on average 34,000 sorties a year, at an annual cost of nearly $1.5 billion. Shashank Joshi said recently:
“In Libya, by contrast, NATO might only need to cover Tripoli, its transport corridors, and… urban areas threatened by Qadhafi loyalists.”
As he also pointed out this week, arming the opposition would cause a serious risk. Portable anti-aircraft missiles could slip out of responsible hands and be used against western targets, and small arms proliferation is already a blight in that part of the world.
Mr Cash
Does the hon. Gentleman realise what he has just said? I think that he said that we should not arm the resistance movement. Does he realise that Richard Dannatt and many others who have great experience are calling for these people to be properly armed? Otherwise, there will be a massacre. Does he really appreciate what he is saying?
Mr Bain
There is a range of views on this, and we should proceed very carefully and in full recognisance of all the arguments before taking steps over the next few days, particularly on arms.
It is clear that any no-fly zone would require a sound legal mandate invoking chapter VII of the UN charter where possible. There are also practical difficulties in enforcing a no-fly zone against helicopters, as a breach of it might require attacks against ground targets.
The humanitarian situation in Libya and its neighbouring states has worsened over the past few weeks, with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reporting that more than 280,000 people have fled Libya and crossed the borders into Tunisia and Egypt. This week, the UNHCR reported that people seeking to flee combat areas in search of refuge are unable to do so or are being prevented from doing so, with a particularly critical situation affecting trapped refugees and asylum seekers who have been detained. We should support UNICEF in its efforts to make an immediate response to alleviate the humanitarian crisis as soon as it can safely enter the country.
The key point is that the international community cannot abandon the Libyan people in this time of need. This must not be another situation like 1992 where, having supported the Shi’a community in Iraq, we then abandoned them when Saddam began to attack them and gave little other than moral support thereafter.
In the few moments remaining I will turn to some of the other states in the neighbouring areas. In Bahrain, movement towards a genuine constitutional monarchy seems to me to be the most likely step to bring about reconciliation and progress. Other middle east Governments must respond to the movements for political and economic reform, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. As many Members have said, we need to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and secure a viable Palestinian state, cohabiting alongside an Israeli state, in order to begin the process of providing a better future for people in the region.
I saw some very interesting data from the Pew global attitudes project last year, which found a decline in support in the Muslim world for radicalism and terrorist attacks. I think that that shows the genuine beliefs of the people in the middle east. They want peace and security and, above all, economic development and reform. As Secretary of State Clinton set out in her speech in Doha on 13 January, there are many signs of the potential for a new and innovative middle east, but there are also huge problems, such as mass youth unemployment, which is approaching 20%, a stagnant political order and depleted resources. We in the west can play our part by securing a completion of the WTO Doha round to liberalise trade and to encourage growth in poorer states, and by building links between the EU and the middle east and north Africa.
Developing civil society, helping to reform the economy and helping the peoples of the middle east and north Africa to increase their human rights and freedoms will be vital to their future and to the security of the region, and in an interconnected world it will be increasingly important for our security here at home in Britain, too.
Oral Answers to Questions
William Bain Excerpts(14 years ago)
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Alistair Burt
I am sure that is the case, and may I say in passing that we welcome the recent visit of a Commonwealth Parliamentary Association group to Sri Lanka? I have already met representatives who were on that trip. The visit shows the Commonwealth’s strong interest in Sri Lanka’s continuing development post-conflict. I was greatly appreciative of the efforts made by Members of this House in going on that trip and reporting back, and I am sure that they will report back to the House more fully at a later stage.
Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)
8. What recent assessment he has made of the prospects for a resolution of the dispute in the Korean peninsula.
Stephen Pound (Ealing North) (Lab)
9. What recent assessment he has made of the security situation in the Korean peninsula.
The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (Mr William Hague)
Tensions are likely to remain high until North Korea abandons its provocative behaviour and violation of UN resolutions, and creates the conditions for the resumption of talks by making verifiable progress towards denuclearisation. Talks between relevant parties offer the best prospect for achieving a resolution of the dispute, but cannot succeed without trust.
Mr Bain
I thank the Foreign Secretary for that reply. Does he agree with the statement issued from last week’s trilateral summit of Japanese and South Korean Foreign Ministers with Secretary of State Clinton that North Korea’s actions have jeopardised peace in northern Asia and that North Korea’s provocative and belligerent behaviour will be met by solidarity from all three countries? What representations will the UK continue to make to demonstrate the dissatisfaction of the British people with North Korea’s continual flouting of UN resolutions?
Mr Hague
The hon. Gentleman is right to draw attention to the statement from the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union, and also the associated statements from Japan. The Prime Minister spoke to the UN Secretary-General and President Lee of South Korea on 24 November, and expressed our strong support for South Korea. In addition, we have held meetings in the past week: senior FCO officials have met North Korean counterparts to relay our messages and our clear view on recent events that North Korea should resume co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and ensure that all nuclear activity adheres to the requirements of that agency, and that it faces increasing isolation unless these matters are dealt with.
Oral Answers to Questions
William Bain Excerpts(14 years, 5 months ago)
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Mr Hague
It is not within the UK’s power alone to deal with Mugabe’s regime. It is possible to do many things to try to improve the situation, some of which I mentioned in answer to previous questions, such as working with South Africa and other partners in Africa, supporting the implementation of the constitution with development money—my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for International Development will continue to support that while reviewing the situation—and stressing the need for economic progress and the possibility of economic regeneration in Zimbabwe. It is a case of continuing all those things to try to help the situation in Zimbabwe rather than introducing one bold new initiative.
Mr William Bain (Glasgow North East) (Lab)
2. What plans he has for the future of his Department’s strategic programme fund for human rights and democracy.
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Mr Jeremy Browne)
My right hon. Friend the Foreign Secretary announced a 10% reduction this year in the strategic programme fund for human rights and democracy, as a contribution to reducing public expenditure, while making clear our desire to sustain such programmes in future years. Programme funds are only one way in which the British Government uphold human rights, which are also a major focus of our overall bilateral and multilateral diplomatic activity.
Mr Bain
I thank the Minister for that reply, but will he go a little further to allay the concerns of right hon. and hon. Members and say that there will be no further reductions in the funds available for this important project, which boosts human rights, democracy and the abolition of the death penalty in countries such as Iran, China and Russia?
Mr Browne
I share all the hon. Gentleman’s objectives, and we wish to minimise the impact of this reduction. We certainly do not seek further reductions. It is worth making the additional point that programme funds are not the only means by which we deliver these policies. Our ambassadors and our network of staff around the world are delivering these foreign policy objectives for Britain every single day.