Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020

Viscount Trenchard Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Trenchard (Con)]

My Lords, I do not envy my right honourable friend the Prime Minister for having to decide where the balance should lie between saving jobs and the economy or saving lives. When I watched his press conference on Saturday, however, I felt immediately sceptical about the data we were shown by his advisers. Part of the reason for the much higher incidence of infections in this second wave is that very many more people are being tested. Therefore, many more people with only mild symptoms, or no symptoms, are appearing in the statistics than was the case in March and April. The proportions of infected people who are dying, and of those who are hospitalised, are also very much lower than was the case in the first phase. In particular, the graph showing scenarios for expected winter deaths—not predictions or forecasts—produced by several modelling groups looked suspicious, as did the graph with an enormous shaded area projecting possible hospital admissions.

I find the arguments put forward by Professor Carl Heneghan and Ross Clark persuasive, and they have not been given enough weight, particularly when there is some evidence that the regional measures were actually working in the areas where they had been introduced and no likelihood whatever that hospital capacity may be threatened in the rest of the country.

It has been argued that immunity provided by antibodies may not last long, and statistics have been presented showing a declining proportion of people possessing antibodies. Having had the virus, without realising it at the time, in late March, I tested positive for antibodies both in early May and at the end of September. I am not aware of anyone who had tested positive for antibodies who has subsequently tested negative. Could the Minister tell the House if he knows what data exists in this area? Without specific data it is clearly misleading to argue definitively that the possession of antibodies offers little mitigation of the risk of being hospitalised or dying as a result of contracting Covid for a second time.

I am no epidemiologist but, based on the evidence I have seen, I do not believe that the state is justified in intervening to deprive citizens of their freedoms in the way that it is doing, particularly if it is using powers granted by an Act of Parliament which was never intended to restrict the activities of healthy people, as was so convincingly argued by Lord Sumption.

I have attended in two cases, and been prevented from attending in one case, the funerals of three close relatives during the period since the pandemic struck. It is welcome that the number who may attend funerals—which had been increased from nine to 30—remains 30 under this current lockdown. However, I think it is most regrettable that the Government have now banned marriages altogether. I have another close relative whose wedding has already been postponed for several months by Covid-induced travel restrictions. He had planned to marry this month, albeit with only 15 people in attendance, but that is not now possible.

[The Deputy Speaker (Lord Haskel) (Lab)]

The noble Lord, Lord Loomba, has withdrawn, so I now call the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford.