UK Economy: Growth, Inflation and Productivity

Viscount Hanworth Excerpts

Thursday 29th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Hanworth (Lab)]

Britain has a lower rate of economic growth than—and its per capita income compares poorly with—many of its European neighbours and others further afield. Questions must be asked about the causes of these deficiencies and what can be done to overcome them. People of different political persuasions give quite different answers.

Prime Minister Liz Truss and her close colleagues had answers to these questions. They proposed that our low rate of growth was attributable to the laziness of the British workers and a lack of sufficient incentives to activate managers and entrepreneurs. In their opinion, the economy was entrammelled by bureaucracy and burdened by a Civil Service and a public sector that were required to be drastically reduced. These aspersions paid little attention to economic reality. The programme of tax cutting and job cutting met with an adverse reaction from financial markets, and Truss was expelled from office.

An indication of the unreality and carelessness of Truss’s programme was her proposal to cut £11 billion in Whitehall waste, to be accompanied by reductions in the salaries of public servants not working in the metropolis. It was quickly revealed that the entire annual salary bill of the Civil Service amounts to some £8 billion. That is significantly less than the size of the proposed cuts. It seemed that there had been an error of categories. Truss was mistaking the size of the public sector for the size of the Civil Service. The idea that the economy is entrammelled in bureaucracy and regulation that needs to be swept away is an enduring, atavistic notion of the Conservative Party that continues to inspire its policies.

The proponents of Brexit assert that we have been suffering from an oppression of regulation imposed by the EU. The falsity of that opinion has been demonstrated during our consideration of the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill. The complaints of bureaucracy tend to be loudest when bureaucratic agencies are understaffed and when, as a result, they are forced to make decisions in a summary and inflexible way. Some of the loudest complaints nowadays are aimed at local authorities, which lack sufficient resources and manpower adequately to fulfil their many bureaucratic functions.

An explanation for Britain’s low economic growth is easy to come by: there is little in the economy on which to base that growth. Britain’s industrial sector, which is where one would expect to find the growth, has been severely diminished; nowadays it accounts for a bare 10% of our gross domestic product. What may not be so evident to many observers is that the hypertrophy of our financial sector has been both an accompaniment to and a cause of our industrial decline. The financial sector has been mediating the sale of our national infrastructure and of our industrial assets to foreign owners. That has maintained demand for the pound and inflated its value, and the overvalue of the pound has made Britain’s exports uncompetitive while lowering the costs of imports. That has been a major cause of our industrial decline.

Among the dogmas that have prejudiced our economic prospects is the belief, which has been central to Conservative economic policy, that the private sector must be relied on to undertake investments that maintain our industrial infrastructure. According to this doctrine, the Government should minimise their involvement and any initiatives that the Government might propose should be assessed on strictly commercial criteria.

The dogma has been maintained in the face of undeniable evidence to the contrary. It has been responsible for a failure to develop our energy infrastructure and for the collapse of the crucial programme for nuclear power, which cannot be sustained by private finance. An industrial transformation is required in order to staunch the global emissions of carbon dioxide. The British Government have been prominent in declaring the need for that transformation but have failed to take the necessary actions. Our targets for the electrification of road transport have been the most ambitious among the European nations, but our support for our automotive industry has been the very weakest. We have failed to promote the manufacture of batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, and the inevitable consequence will be the loss of our automotive industry.

An industrial transformation aimed at achieving net-zero carbon emissions requires strategic economic planning organised by central government. It requires a major expansion of the supply of carbon-neutral energy, which is bound to come preponderantly from nuclear energy. The experience of the present Government indicates that we cannot expect the necessary investment to come from the private sector.

As in the immediate post-war era, we must look to the Government to provide the necessary finance via taxation and government borrowing from the financial sector. Indeed, the taxes should be imposed on those who can afford to pay them, including the large corporations, which have proved adept at avoiding taxation while reaping exorbitant profits. In the absence of major government initiatives to support the necessary industrial transformation, our economic decline will continue. The consequence will be widespread economic and social misery, which may be accompanied by increasing political instability. Further opportunities will be created for populist movements proposing spurious panaceas, such as we have witnessed in the Brexit movement.