Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Tobias Ellwood Excerpts

Wednesday 15th March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

There is so much to digest from this Red Book in such a short space of time, but let me begin by welcoming the Budget statement, which reflects not only a return to economic stability, but a viable plan to energise UK growth.

It has been a busy year since the last spring fiscal event. The Russian invasion continues afoot in Ukraine, causing geopolitical and economic ramifications and impacting on energy and fuel prices. There is the aftermath of covid, which cost the Government an intervention of £400 billion from the Treasury’s coffers. Let us also put up our hand about the fact that the political turmoil of moving through three Prime Ministers was testing for the markets and was not our finest hour. Certainly, stagnation summarises 2022, with slow economic growth inhibiting economic development or expansion, and inflation bringing rising prices, but falling GDP.

So it is good to see a return to fiscal responsibility, as efforts are made to bring inflation under control and restore confidence in the markets, and to secure new, reliable sources of energy imports and become more energy self-sufficient. That includes, I am pleased to say, investment in modular nuclear reactors. As the Chancellor stated, the forecast looks more optimistic, and as our economy begins to strengthen, growth is forecast to return. The Government’s key objectives of halving inflation, growing the economy and reducing debt are all on track.

However, significant challenges remain, as we have heard today. Many are still impacted by the cost of living crisis, there is still not enough investment in business to make our economy grow faster, and our labour market needs invigorating to entice many of the economically inactive back into work. The actions announced today address these very issues, and they will be welcome in Bournemouth East and, indeed, across the country. For example, there are those extending the energy price guarantee to help keep fuel bills low and freezing fuel duty, as well as extending childcare to include one and two-year-olds and providing additional funding to support nurses, so that more parents can return to work after building a family. I hope that increasing the annual pension allowance to £60,000 will encourage doctors in Bournemouth and across the country to delay thoughts of retirement.

What I did not see in the Red Book—I look to the Front Bench—were any plans to reduce VAT for the hospitality industry from 20% to 10%. Tourism destinations such as Bournemouth were affected by the pandemic. I am, of course, grateful for the Government’s intervention then, but as hospitality recovers today it is hit by the perfect storm of inflation driving up wages, higher food prices and increased utility costs. There is a petition on the parliamentary website about this, which has now reached over 11,000 signatures. I hope the Treasury will do the maths, lower VAT and allow hospitality operations to survive, build and grow, thus increasing productivity, which will help to advance our GDP. Please, Chancellor, I invite you to do the maths.

On defence, even today the Chancellor connected the state of our economy with events in eastern Europe. With around half our GDP subject to international headwinds, our connectivity, our access to international markets, and our ability to source global goods and services are all impacting on our economy. That has been powerfully illustrated by the conflict in Ukraine. Had the invasion not taken place, UK inflation would be at 4% today, not 10%. Imagine what would happen if the threat picture were to deteriorate. Yet that is exactly what the Government predict will happen, as written in the new integrated review:

“There is a growing prospect that the international security environment will further deteriorate in the coming years, with state threats increasing and diversifying in Europe and beyond. The risk of escalation is greater than at any time in decades”.

If ever there was a call to move away from peacetime defence spend, that was it.

I have crunched the numbers in the Red Book. Simply put, away from Ukraine support and ammunition replenishment, £5 billion has been allocated for the next two years, of which £3 billion goes to the new nuclear enterprise, leaving just £1 billion a year to improve our conventional forces. That will not allow our hollowed-out Army to be regenerated. It will not allow all the swathing cuts we saw in the last review to be reversed, such as tank numbers, troop numbers, armoured fighting vehicle numbers, and even Typhoon and Hercules aircraft numbers.

We should recognise—I say this loud and clear—that we are sliding towards a new cold war, as Russia and China further align themselves to challenge and exploit the frailty of our global order. As global security further deteriorates, a failure to invest in upgrading our peacetime defence posture now will not only harm our economy, as our markets are slowly closed off, but diminish our voice on the international stage. This is not the time to blink. We must have political courage, backed by hard power. That is what earned us a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. I urge the Treasury to reconsider its investment in our UK defence posture.

After the Windsor framework, the Paris summit and the AUKUS deal, what we saw from the Chancellor today was another example of statecraft returning to No. 10. Domestically, the Budget will help tackle the cost of living crisis, strengthen our economy and boost growth. I commend the Government for their actions here today, but with storm clouds gathering I hope they understand that I will keep pushing for an increased defence budget.

Oral Answers to Questions

Tobias Ellwood Excerpts

Wednesday 1st December 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

Thank you, Mr Speaker.

The Prime Minister will be aware that British citizens affected by the 7/7 bombings were supported by the criminal injuries compensation scheme. However, when such attacks take place abroad, such as in Bali, Mumbai or Sharm el Sheikh, no such compensation for things such as prosthesis and long-term care exists. Does the Prime Minister agree that any Britons caught up in terrorist attacks deserve our support, no matter where in the world that attack takes place?

[The Prime Minister]

My hon. Friend is entirely right to raise that issue. People who are victims of terror, whether at home or overseas, deserve our support, as he says. People might not know, but my hon. Friend’s brother was tragically killed in the Bali bombing—that horrific attack that took place some years ago. We are looking at this very difficult issue of trying to make sure that, when we consider criminal injuries compensation and what has been proposed for injuries overseas, we have a fair and reasonable system. The Justice Secretary is looking at that, and we will come forward with proposals.

Summertime (Scotland)

Tobias Ellwood Excerpts

Tuesday 16th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mr Harris]

I am almost grateful to my hon. Friend for raising that point and intruding into personal grief. Now that I am no longer a blogger, I may consider going into politics.

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

On a more serious note, the hon. Gentleman brings up an important issue that will be debated in a private Member’s Bill very shortly. May I commend what he is saying to the House? I did some studies on this in Scotland and found that the farmers who were once against this, on passionate and logical grounds, are now either neutral or in favour of it. They appreciate the extra hour in the evening, because many of them have diversified into the tourism market where bed and breakfast and so forth provide value. The other aspect is road deaths. A net decrease in road deaths would be a significant improvement were the clocks to be changed. I welcome the debate that has been brought to the House tonight.

[Mr Harris]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for making those valid comments and trying to pre-empt the points that I hope to make in the next few minutes.

It is up to the Lighter Later campaign and its many supporters here in the Commons to make the case for all the benefits that will accrue from pushing the clocks forward an hour, and they can do that during the debate on the private Member’s Bill promoted by the hon. Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris), who is in the Chamber. I will return to that issue shortly.

As a father of young children, I approach this subject from a particular direction. The other alleged benefits that I mentioned earlier notwithstanding, it is the effect on Scotland’s road safety record, particularly as it affects children, that most concerns me. We already know that road accidents are more likely to occur in the evening peak hour than in the morning. One will often hear the protest that drivers are not fully alert first thing in the morning when they drive to work, and are more alert as they return. I do not believe this to be the case, and the evidence is indeed to the contrary.

The 1998 study by Transport Research estimated that a move away from GMT would lead to an overall reduction in road deaths and serious injuries of 0.7% in Scotland alone. Based on the figures for 2009, that would mean 20 fewer deaths and serious injuries on Scotland’s roads, and 30 fewer casualties across all categories of severity.

John Scott MSP said that Scottish children should not have to go to school in darkness. Mr. Scott represents Ayr, and I grew up in that same county, and I know that by December children there will be doing precisely that anyway. Dawn can arrive after classes have begun.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Harris]

I will not belabour this particular point. I am speaking in favour of a move to single/double summertime. I hope that the hon. Gentleman understands the meaning of that.

[Mr Ellwood]

There is a serious point here. We have 53 days on one side of the winter solstice and about 100 days on the other side. It is not symmetrical, and therefore this proposal would make sense. I ask SNP Members to allow the Bill to go through to Committee stage so that such detail can be debated. It needs to be given more time so that the country can understand the detail instead of the Bill being kicked into touch by talking it out on a Friday, which happens so often. I hope that the SNP will listen, wake up to what the nation is calling for, and support this proposal so that we can have a debate and see it through to fruition.

[Mr Harris]

The problem with such debates, in most cases, is that various Members raise specific and detailed technical objections which prevent the progress of the Bill and which, nine times out of 10, are intended to do so. The Bill promoted by the hon. Member for Castle Point is before the House, and I hope that the House will make a decision in due course.

Contrary to some rather excitable critics—yes, I am looking at you, John Scott MSP—the Daylight Saving Bill would not implement any permanent change to single/double summertime. It would simply oblige the Government initially to conduct a cross-departmental analysis of the potential costs and benefits of advancing time by one hour for all or part of the year. Only at that point, and entirely dependent on the results of that analysis, would a three-year experiment of single/double summertime be triggered. Crucially, if the analysis were to conclude that the anticipated benefits were unlikely to be realised, the three-year pilot would not go ahead. Given the very sensible caution outlined in the Bill—I congratulate the hon. Lady on promoting it—it is very difficult to see how any serious objection to it could be maintained, even by those strongly opposed to the scrapping of GMT.

I may be wrong in my support for single/double summertime. The critics of the Lighter Later campaign may be wrong. Even—this is extremely far-fetched, I confess—John Scott MSP might be wrong. But until we properly analyse all the available data, we will never know. Instead, we will have the same old arguments, twice a year, every year, when the clock changes come around in October and March.

I have called for this debate because I think that it is right that the Scotland Office sets out its own policy position. It has considerable influence in the Government and could, I imagine, scupper the hon. Lady’s Bill if it so chose. I intend to be present on 3 December when the Bill has its Second Reading. I hope that the Minister will also be present to support it so that we can draw a line under this debate once and for all.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Mundell]

I certainly accept that the former shadow Tourism Minister is a powerful advocate of the case, but what the Prime Minister said then, and what he says now, is that we welcome an informed debate in all parts of the UK. As my right hon. Friend the Chancellor might say, on this issue we are all in it together or not at all.

[Mr Ellwood]

I am aware that my hon. Friend has been following this issue carefully, but I would ask that his Department show some leadership and a little bit more interest, rather than just saying, “Oh, it’s for the others to make the case.” There is definite interest in the matter, because Scotland and the entire country can benefit. It is time that the Scotland Office considered the matter in detail and carried out an overt study, rather than one that they are not willing to publish, and then supported a three-year experiment. There would be a massive benefit to Britain, including Scotland, and I hope that the Department will embrace that rather than have a laissez-faire attitude.

[David Mundell]

I do not accept that it is a laissez-faire attitude to reflect opinion in Scotland within Government. We should welcome the debate and challenge those people who feel strongly about the matter to go out and win that debate in Scotland. It is quite clear that they have not yet done so. I agree that this has to be a factual debate and that it does not have to be an emotional one. Even if we move to double summertime, it will not mean that the United Kingdom has any more daylight hours.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Mundell]

That will be a matter for the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills during the course of the debate, which is to be held on 3 December. I hope that all those Members with an active interest in this matter will ensure that the debate explores all the issues that cannot be explored in the short time that we have available this evening, and that those people who promote the view will continue to gather the evidence that they believe will support their conviction that the benefits of lighter evenings would outweigh the costs of darker mornings. Judging by his contribution, that is the sort of informed debate that the hon. Member for Glasgow South wants to move to, and we would welcome that in this Parliament and in the Scottish Parliament.

Secondly, a consensus within Scotland will need to be built, to convince the body politic, Civic Scotland and the Scottish public to support them. The hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Cathy Jamieson) might tell me to the contrary, but I was unaware that the Scottish Labour party in the Scottish Parliament supported such a measure and had promoted it by speaking actively in its favour. I might have been wrong in that regard.

The hon. Member for Glasgow South highlighted the important issue of road safety and made some telling points. Thankfully, the UK already has one of the best road safety records in Europe, but the UK and Scottish Governments recognise that we can always do more. The introduction of central European time is not a panacea in that regard. Road safety experts acknowledge that other initiatives could have a greater impact. Indeed, even proponents of change acknowledge that the change may result in more road injuries in Scotland during the morning peak.

[Mr Ellwood]

I have a lot of respect for my hon. Friend personally and professionally, but I question some of his facts, because according to the statistics that I have seen, road deaths fell in Scotland during the 1968 to 1971 experiment. The statistics and analysis suggest that if the experiment were repeated, road deaths would fall again. I do not know where he gets his data from, but he needs to share them with us if we are to have a full and frank debate.

[David Mundell]

I recognise the passion with which my hon. Friend speaks, but his contributions have not necessarily been made from an objective viewpoint in relation to Scotland. The Government want and welcome an informed debate. As has been clearly stated, hon. Members will have the chance to debate this issue on 3 December on Second Reading of the Daylight Saving Bill, which is a private Member’s Bill sponsored by my hon. Friend the Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris). They need no encouragement from me to take that opportunity.