West Coast Main Line

Debate between Tim Farron and Rosie Cooper

Monday 17th September 2012 Westminster Hall

[Rosie Cooper]

I did not clearly hear that part of the meeting. Perhaps it happened before I arrived. I was there when the hon. Gentleman said that he called the meeting so that Virgin and FirstGroup could say how they had arrived at their current situation—of one being awarded the contract and the other having started a judicial review. I pointed out that nobody from the Government had bothered to turn up to answer MPs’ questions and that democracy had been short-changed.

I understand that the Government use a computer programme to test the assumptions within the bid, which the Minister will no doubt tell me is a robust approach. My response would be to ask whether this was the same modelling package that was used by the consultants who said that the west coast main line should be carrying an extra £15 million of fares during the period of the Olympics and Paralympics? It was never physically possible to get that volume of passengers within that time frame to deliver £15 million of sales. In the end, the additional revenues amounted to between £1 million and £2 million. Such projections were for a single event over a short period of time and they were way, way off. How much confidence does that instil in us over projections that are supposed to last 15 years?

[Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale) (LD)]

The hon. Lady points out that it is very easy for all of us to be experts after the fact. Does that not demonstrate that the real problem here is that this decision was taken maybe completely appropriately, but it was announced during the summer recess so that Parliament had no chance to discuss or interrogate this issue? Moreover, perhaps one criterion that ought to be added to the process is what the public and the users of the service think about it.

[Rosie Cooper]

The hon. Gentleman raises several of the points that I am about to discuss in more detail, but I absolutely agree with him.

Surely projections about the contract should score highly on the basis of value for money for the taxpayer and the commuter. There is a belief that passenger growth could continue to be 10% per annum. However, such growth figures were achieved at the top of the economy. Even for a non-economist such as me, it does not take a great leap of faith to think that such growth rates are not sustainable in an economy that is in the doldrums and with fears of a double-dip recession not having gone away.