Finance (No. 3) Bill

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Tuesday 3rd May 2011 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

Let me make a bit more progress, because Members have raised some real concerns and I want to ensure that I respond.

The Government recognise that we need to act as a good custodian of the UK’s natural mineral wealth; at the same time, we need to manage a tax regime that tailors the level of tax to the level of profits available from the UK continental shelf. The UK’s oil and gas reserves are a finite resource that belongs to the nation. Current oil production was not sanctioned on the basis of the high prices from which the industry benefits today. Those unexpectedly high prices and profits have arisen due to geopolitical events in the middle east and north Africa, as we have heard, and the Government must ensure that they secure a fair return for the UK taxpayer, particularly given the impact that oil prices are having on the broader economy outside the oil and gas exploration industry.

[Stewart Hosie]

But the tax rate was 50% before. Although clause 19 has been agreed to, it ought to have been paid for by the windfall that the Government got because of last year’s rise in the barrel price and by the windfall over and above the 2010 forecast that the Government are going to get this year. The problem is that what the Government have done with this tax grab, this 60% hike in the supplementary charge, is likely to damage investment and jobs and weaken economic recovery. It is not necessary to pay for clause 19—the money was already banked.

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[Justine Greening]

The hon. Gentleman is missing the point that because of the high oil price there is continued investment in the North sea. Interestingly, Professor Kemp’s optimistic scenario is $90 a barrel and 70p per therm, but as I just said, the OBR has projected independently that oil prices over the next five years could be more than $100. That is $10 higher than the most optimistic scenario in Professor Kemp’s analysis.

[Stewart Hosie]

It is worth pointing out the Professor Kemp states that his projections are all in real terms, so they increase yearly with general inflation, and he gives three different scenarios for a barrel-of-oil price plus the therm price. In each instance—I will be very accurate here—field investment is reduced by £19.2 billion, by £19.5 billion or by £29.1 billion. Those are 30-year forecasts. For the sake of accuracy and completeness, therefore, I am sure that the Minister will agree that Professor Kemp and Linda Stephen’s work points to reduced investment over all the scenarios investigated.

[Justine Greening]

I just said that we accept that there will be a marginal impact; however, Wood Mackenzie has said that it does not expect that marginal impact to be high. If we look at Professor Kemp’s optimistic scenario of $90, which is less optimistic than what the OBR is projecting, and then use the hurdle rate most commonly used by most companies, we see that in the high-price scenario, total future projects are expected to fall from 1,099 to 1,074—a 2% reduction. We are saying that we recognise that. We therefore believe that the challenge is now for us to work with the industry to ensure that we can mitigate the risk to that 2% of investment.

I turn briefly to the amendments in the names of my right hon. Friend the Member for Gordon and my hon. Friend the Member for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Clearly, the amendments enabled them to make the points they wanted to make, but I think they would accept that the way in which their proposals would operate could mean that the supplementary charge rise started later and lasted potentially for a finite time. It might also have a staged approach. All those things would mean that the funding would not be in place to fund the package we want to introduce for motorists. I stress, however, that as my right hon. Friend the Member for Gordon said at the end of this comments, the way through this is to ensure that we work with the industry. I am pleased with the engagement we have now had with the industry. We have got through our first meeting with industry representatives after the Budget, which was a chance for them to set out their reaction to a tax rise we did not anticipate they would welcome.

The Government amendments demonstrate that we are engaged with the industry and are listening to its concerns. In fact, as a result of that engagement we wanted to address a technical issue that had arisen involving the basis proposed for the apportionment of profits. The Government’s amendments seek to address that. The legislation provides for how profits in an accounting period that straddles the date of the rate increase are to be split, so that the two tax rates can be applied to the appropriate amounts of profits. Government amendment 11 provides that a company may elect for a just and reasonable basis to be used where a time apportionment would give an unjust or unreasonable result.

We have proposed amendment 11 to take account of the concerns of industry. The amendment has an Exchequer cost of £40 million in 2011-12 only. We feel that the change is worth while because it ensures, for example, that the tax change does not affect the tax liability due in respect of transactions that were wholly completed before the Budget and that should not, therefore, have been affected by the rate change. The change follows an approach that the industry has suggested and shows that the Government are willing to change the detail of the delivery of their stated policy aims where evidence of unforeseen effects is presented by the industry. I urge hon. Members to accept the change.

This Government will carry on working with the industry on providing certainty in respect of decommissioning tax relief. Industry and officials will be engaging closely on that important piece of work in the coming months, and as previously mentioned, officials and Ministers are closely engaging with the industry in relation to the marginal field developments. We explicitly said that we would do that in the Budget, and we are now following up on that desire to ensure that investment continues to be unlocked. The concerns of gas producers are also being discussed with them. As I have mentioned, the Government are also seeking the views of oil companies and motoring groups about the level of the trigger price for the supplementary charge, and how the oil price for that purpose is to be determined. That informal consultation will be take place shortly, and we expect to be able to clarify the policy mechanism in the autumn.

We want to ensure that the Exchequer obtains a fair share of the value of our natural resource wealth while ensuring that the tax regime does not impede the development of the basin’s potential. The impacts of the measure are understood, so no further assessment is required, and I urge the Opposition not to press the amendment. It is impossible not to note that they voted—[Interruption.] I was actually referring to amendment 10, which I would have thought Labour Members would recognise, having proposed it—although I suppose that anyone who has voted for a tax cut on fuel duty, even though they have no way of paying for it because they have set out their stall against getting the funding mechanism from the oil companies, might be expected not to have followed the arguments that I have set out.

The amendments proposed by my right hon. Friend the Member for Gordon are well intentioned. Let me reassure him once again that we are listening to representations from the industry and acting to ameliorate unforeseen effects. I therefore urge hon. Members to accept the Government amendments. The clause puts in place a fair fuel stabiliser, ensuring that we can pay for much needed help for motorists up and down the country. The clause also ensures that motorists and businesses suffer less pain from high prices at the petrol pump as a result of higher oil prices that would otherwise simply increase the profits of oil companies.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Tuesday 22nd March 2011 Commons Chamber

[The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Justine Greening)]

The hon. Gentleman will have to wait until tomorrow’s Budget, but he will recognise that in the emergency Budget last year we left beer duty frozen.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Chancellor knows that the long-term solution to the spikes in fuel prices is a stabiliser or a regulator, and hopefully we will hear about that tomorrow. However, is he aware that the price rises in fuel over the past four of five weeks equate to an additional £1,000 a year for running every truck in the country? Does he not agree that that is hugely inflationary and utterly unsustainable?

Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [Lords]

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Tuesday 22nd March 2011 Commons Chamber

[Stewart Hosie]

Amendment 2 calls for the OBR’s reports to be published. The Treasury Committee said:

“The OBR should have discretion in the models it uses in drawing up its forecasts. It is a matter for the organisation itself as to whether it is content to use is the Treasury models, or wishes to make changes. Whatever course the OBR takes, there would be benefits in it being as transparent as possible about the models it uses.”

I assume that that would also include the assumptions that underpin those models. The Government’s response was positive. They said that they would

“provide the OBR with full access to Treasury and other forecasting models, as well as support to scrutinise and develop these models.”

Again, I assume that that means the assumptions that underpin the Treasury models and whatever other modelling it wishes to undertake. The hon. Member for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie) said that the OBR could take those models and assumptions from the Treasury, and he is absolutely right about that.

The OBR currently publishes a number of assumptions. For example, the impact multipliers were included in the June 2010 report, showing the one-for-one impact of capital expenditure cuts. Reports at the time of the Labour Government published assumptions about oil prices, and North sea corporation tax and petroleum revenue tax was used to calculate those yields. Given that several such assumptions are already published, and that the OBR can take all those assumptions, models and changes and create new ones, does it have the discretion to publish what it sees fit? Would it not be better to have a guarantee from the Minister that it will not unnecessarily withhold assumptions where it is important for us all to have transparency? Instead of the Treasury putting the material in the Library, we should ensure that the OBR has the ability to do that, so that we have the information and can come to a proper, reasoned view on whether we believe its figures.

That is a simple question, and I am sure that the answer is yes; I certainly hope so. There is no reason why we should not have that transparency so that we can all guarantee the efficacy of the reports that the OBR produces.

[Justine Greening]

On amendment 2, the Government are committed to increasing transparency in public life. That transparency is essential to good fiscal policy, as the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) said. In fact, the Government already provide the costing methods and assumptions for policy proposals. Those were made available in policy costings documents at the last Budget and spending review, and copies were made available to the House. That is a step change in transparency in fiscal policy making. Specifically in relation to the OBR, the additional transparency referred to in the amendment is already required by the statutory charter for budget responsibility, which says at paragraph 3.9:

“The Budget Report shall provide, at a minimum: an explanation and costing of the impact of all significant fiscal policy measures introduced by the Government since the last Budget and an explanation of the methodology used to cost the fiscal impact of each of those measures”.

In relation to the Bill, I draw the hon. Gentleman’s attention to clause 4(6), which explicitly refers to the OBR’s reports being clear in explaining the factors that it took into account when preparing the report—not only the assumptions that he mentioned but the main risks that it considered to be relevant. So there is a safeguard not only in the charter but in the Bill to ensure that there is transparency about how the official forecasts have been arrived at.

On amendment 6, the OBR is accountable to Parliament in order to enhance Parliament’s ability to hold the Government to account for fiscal policy. The OBR’s forecasts and analysis will be laid directly before the House. The budget responsibility committee will be appointed with the consent of the Treasury Committee, and will be available for scrutiny. There will be separate reporting to Parliament of the OBR’s expenditure, and, as many Members have already discovered, relevant written questions will be answered by the OBR. The OBR is also accountable to the Chancellor, reflecting its role in producing the official forecast, which will form the basis of the Chancellor’s Budget decisions.

Herein lies the challenge to Labour Members. The OBR will provide the Government with timely access to the information necessary to reach policy decisions ahead of fiscal policy events. The Treasury Committee recognised that in its report last year, when it said:

“Involvement In the Budget process necessarily involves close contact between the Treasury and the OBR”.

Close working also means that the OBR has access to all Government information to ensure that its conclusions reflect the most accurate and up-to-date information. It is therefore right that the OBR provides the Government with pre-release access to its forecast in order to ensure the accuracy of both it and the Budget documents, which are published simultaneously.

It is also right that there is transparency in the approach to the sharing of information. The OBR has chosen to follow the well-established pre-release practices put in place by the Office for National Statistics. I can assure the House that this arrangement does not compromise the OBR’s independence. It is an approach that has worked well for the ONS. The OBR has been transparent about when reports have been shared. It confirmed in its November “Economic and fiscal outlook”:

“We have come under no pressure from ministers, advisers or officials to change any of our conclusions.”

The OBR’s access to Government information distinguishes it from other UK forecasting organisations, and ensures that the Chancellor and Parliament are provided with the most up-to-date information regarding the latest UK economy and public finance figures.

I understand the rationale behind amendment 6. However, given the practicalities of the OBR’s accountability to the Chancellor and its role in producing the official forecasts, we feel that it is better for it to act on its own decision to follow the ONS pre-release guidelines. I will resist both amendments.

Fuel Costs

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Monday 7th February 2011 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

In that case, I can tell the hon. Gentleman how he can help. It would be helpful if his party wholeheartedly supported the Government’s proposal to the European Union and the European Commission as we go through the process of securing the derogation. I assure him that we will be more powerful if we adopt a cross-Government, cross-devolved-Administration approach.

[Stewart Hosie]

The Minister is asking the Scottish National party and our friends to support the Government’s efforts in Europe. Will she please tell us whether the Chief Secretary has finally managed to write to the European Commission asking for the derogation?

[Justine Greening]

The hon. Gentleman will be aware that the derogation will come about as the outcome of a process. He seems to be asking me whether we are getting on with that process, and how much progress we have made. I trust that if I explain what the process is, what we have done so far and what will happen next, he will have been given so much information that he will find it necessary to take a more considered approach.

Let me explain the timing involved in the process leading to European Union and Commission clearance. We must begin by undertaking informal talks with the Commission abut the implementation of the scheme. That will give us a better chance of presenting a proposal that it will agree is, as it were, right first time. As Members have pointed out, similar schemes exist in other countries. It is sensible for the Government to engage in a process that includes talking informally to the European Commission about those schemes, and about the ways in which our scheme may resemble or differ from them.

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[Justine Greening]

I think the hon. Gentleman is taking the debate slightly wider than the wording in the motion. However, I will say to him that the measures we are taking are designed to get our economies in his part of the United Kingdom and the rest of it back on their feet. I hope that he welcomes the tax reductions we are bringing forward.

[Stewart Hosie]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Justine Greening]

I will give way one last time, and then I shall make a little progress. I have been generous in taking interventions.

[Stewart Hosie]

The hon. Lady has been very generous indeed. She asks us to welcome the actions that the Government have taken in terms of a deficit consolidation plan. I like and respect her, but I will never welcome a £1.3 billion cut to the Scottish budget this year and a £3.2 billion cut to the Scottish block over the next four years. That is the wrong thing to do in terms of stimulating economic growth and growing our way out of the recession. If we could focus on the fuel duty, that would be particularly helpful, unless of course she wants to devolve the duty to Scotland, in which case I would be absolutely delighted as we could take all the right decisions.

[Justine Greening]

I am sure that the hon. Gentleman will be aware of the Goodison review and that the Scotland Bill is passing through Parliament right now. We are making some changes on tax, and I think he will welcome those measures to strengthen the devolution settlement.[Official Report, 15 February 2011, Vol. 523, c. 3MC.]

I shall now, as I am sure the hon. Gentleman would like me to, address my comments to the measures we have been talking about and what we are considering. Only this Government have been looking at how best to help drivers, including those in Scotland and Wales. We have demonstrated our concerns about these issues both before and since coming into government. Indeed, one of the first things that the coalition Government did was to get the Office for Budget Responsibility to look at how oil prices affect the economy and feed into public finance.

This is a complex issue, and we have to make sure that whatever we do is not only fair but affordable. It would not be right of me to pre-empt the Chancellor or the Budget, but, as we promised in the June Budget, we are considering a range of options. We have already discussed the rural fuel duty rebate. The Government understand the challenges faced by people in rural areas in relation to fuel costs, which those of us in city and urban areas perhaps do not face. I know that those people cannot easily shop around nearby petrol stations to get the best deal in the way that other people can. I understand the arguments about the lack of public transport as an alternative and that the car is often the most realistic mode of transport. That is precisely way we are working towards getting a derogation so that we can get on with putting in place pilots to look at how a rural fuel rebate would work.

Finance (No.2) Bill

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Monday 8th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Stewart Hosie]

On that point, I entirely agree with the Minister. A fundamental part of this is the new capital requirements under Basel III—some 7% higher for at-risk banks. Does she not agree, however, that a review of bank taxation, along with the Bank commission and the new Basel III regulations, would be sensible to ensure that we have the balance in the round between taxation and capitalisation, risk and regulation, and supervision both at the UK level and with respect to this rather complicated European structure?

[Justine Greening]

The hon. Gentleman is right that the bank levy itself needs to be viewed in the context of overall policy. He is right that it is not just about the bank levy; we have to look at it in the light of the broader changes around regulatory reform and the work of the Independent Commission on Banking. I will shortly come on to explain what that means for new clause 3.

We know that we have to tackle the regulatory failures of the past. We also know that it is right that banks make a contribution in respect of the risks they pose to the UK economy, but there is no benefit in taking action that would simply drive banks abroad. As the hon. Member for Islwyn (Chris Evans) pointed out, hundreds of thousands of jobs across the UK depend on Britain being competitive in this industry. For the financial services sector as a whole, as of June 2009, it had 1 million employees. The jobs are not just in London and the south-east, as there are nearly 100,000 people employed within the financial services industry in the north-west, while there are between 69,000 and 70,000 people employed by that industry in the east of England and about 90,000 in Scotland. Although there have been serious failures in the past, we also have to remember that many of the jobs that are part of this overall sector do not bring in high incomes, as the hon. Gentleman pointed out.

Finance Bill

Debate between Stewart Hosie and Justine Greening

Thursday 15th July 2010 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for that intervention. I will set out our overall approach to the issue that he raised. In every individual case, there are specifics. I was not aware of the case of the individual whom he mentioned, and I would be happy to give him a more specific answer if he gives me details. However, in principle, he raises a difficult issue. It is doubtless hard for people who reached their 75th birthday before we got to Budget day when we announced the proposed changes. We had pressed the previous Government to take action earlier, but it was left to us, on coming into government, to start to take the steps that we all agree are important. We do not agree with making retrospective legislation, except in the most egregious cases. As he said, the provision affects only a few hundred people.

The inheritance tax charge of 80% would apply to estates over the inheritance tax threshold of £360,000 a year. On the face of it, I cannot give much comfort to the constituent of the hon. Member for Angus (Mr Weir). We are trying to improve the position of those who reached 75 on or after Budget day, but I have set out the basic principles, and the details of the constituent’s case may or may not fit them. If the hon. Gentleman provides the exact details, I will give him a more exact answer. I hope that I have provided some background and that we can find a way forward to clarify and resolve the specific issue.

[Stewart Hosie]

I thank the Economic Secretary for her response. Clearly, the way forward for people reaching 75 is sensible. The two-year deferral until the consultation is complete is right. It recognises the problem and ensures that no one else falls through the cracks between now and the end of the consultation. I am slightly disappointed that no hope was offered that the consultation could allow a slightly retrospective element to those very few people who have become 75 in the past few years, did not take an annuity and are managing their own funds. I will not press the amendment, but I will have another think about it before we reach Report next week, when I may revert to it. I beg to ask leave to withdraw the amendment.

Amendment, by leave, withdrawn.