Scotland: Demography and Devolution

Debate between Steven Paterson and Chris Law

Thursday 9th March 2017 Westminster Hall

[Chris Law (Dundee West) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr McCabe, and to follow two wonderful and detailed speeches.

I said in this Chamber only three months ago that

“the Government’s current immigration policy is completely failing Scotland.”—[Official Report, 8 December 2016; Vol. 618, c. 164WH.]

The Scottish Affairs Committee is now leading another debate based on a report that has concluded, yet again, that a different immigration system is needed for Scotland, rather than a one-size-fits-all UK policy. Hon. Members may ask why. Well, our report examined the different population trends in Scotland and why the challenges presented by those trends should be reflected in the UK Government’s policy making. One of the key challenges we found was that over the next 25 years, the average age of the Scottish population will increase dramatically, resulting in far fewer people paying taxes and fewer people being available to work in health and social care to support an ageing population.

The good news is that after years of decline, the population of Scotland is now gradually increasing, mainly due to the decrease in outward migration. However, if a hard Tory Brexit has a negative economic impact on Scotland, it is highly likely that outward migration will increase again. Over the next 25 years, the population of Scotland is predicted to increase by 7%, but London’s population is predicted to increase by more than triple that rate, meaning that the economy of the UK will be even more dominated by the needs of London and the south-east of England.

[Steven Paterson]

It strikes me that we have had debates in the House of Commons recently on boundary changes, during which the Government argued that those changes had to be based upon population. Based on the point that my hon. Friend has just made, does it not signal the failure of the current policy that according to the Government, Scotland’s number of MPs relative to England will be decreased again and again and again, as it has been over the last 20 or 230 years?

[Chris Law]

My hon. Friend makes a valuable point. In fact, if the number of MPs in one area, the north-west of Scotland highlands, is reduced, the area covered by one MP will be larger than Belgium. That is completely unacceptable, particularly in the face of Brexit and the amount of work that will result from it, which is likely to be a burden for all MPs.

Scotland’s recent population increase is partly due to inward migration. However, UK Government policies will undoubtedly have a negative impact on Scotland’s population growth. Those policies include barriers to immigration resulting from Brexit, which I have already mentioned; the scrapping of post-study work visas, which is already causing considerable damage; and the continuing uncertainty about whether EU citizens will be allowed to remain in the UK.

Our Committee’s report also found that population is a key issue in rural areas in Scotland that already have extremely low levels of population density and a pattern of younger people leaving to look for work elsewhere. On a Committee visit to Dumfries quite recently, we heard that in rural areas it is already hard to fill posts in social and health care, and it is predicted that that situation will get worse.

While Scotland’s land reform and rural broadband schemes are intended to boost economic activity in rural areas, which can only be a good thing, achieving that aim will not be possible if there are not enough people living in those areas to develop the economy. Again, the situation will become even worse if our exit from the EU reduces immigration and leads to more young people leaving Scotland to find work elsewhere.

I will give a more detailed example from my own constituency in Dundee. There are many issues in the demography report that have particularly serious implications for my city. To put things into perspective, Dundee has the highest proportion of students in higher education of anywhere in Scotland. The university sector is vital to the economic health of our city. Indeed, a quarter of University of Dundee students come from outside the UK and, as was set out in a report last week, more than 175 jobs in Dundee are fully or partially funded by EU grants. If Brexit leads to a reduction in the number of international students and a loss of EU nationals working in our universities, without doubt that will have a significant negative effect on the economic wellbeing of my city.

As many Members will know, Dundee is currently undergoing a £1 billion regeneration of its waterfront, at the heart of which is the new V&A Museum of Design. Immigration and population growth have the effect of enhancing economic activity and creating jobs. Therefore, any threat to immigration will hinder the positive transformation that Dundee is currently undertaking.

I will focus on one sector for a moment, because Abertay University was the world’s first university to have a degree in designing video games. I chair the all-party group on video games, so I will touch on that sector briefly. My constituency is a cluster for game designers. To give people a flavour of the kind of games that come out of Dundee, one of them—“Grand Theft Auto”—has already broken six Guinness world records. Within the video games industry, talent is the No. 1 priority for businesses, and it is vital that the industry is able to recruit highly skilled international talent without there being immigration barriers to their working here.

A UK-wide survey by the video games industry body UK Interactive Entertainment, which was published just yesterday, showed that more than 98% of respondents—we might as well say 100%, as we are just about there—believe that EU nationals with skills needed in the games industry should have a blanket right to live and work in the UK.

I turn to a sector that is important in my neighbouring constituencies, in particular that of my hon. Friend the Member for Perth and North Perthshire (Pete Wishart). Each year, large numbers of temporary migrants from the EU come to work in the fruit picking industry in the constituency next to mine. If that flow of workers is cut off by Brexit, that will have a hugely negative impact on this vital part of our local economy.

Tay Cities Deal

Debate between Steven Paterson and Chris Law

Wednesday 13th July 2016 Commons Chamber

[Chris Law (Dundee West) (SNP)]

City deals have played a vital role in the economic revival of many urban areas throughout Scotland. Four city deal initiatives have so far been approved, and Dundee and the surrounding areas is the only major city region in Scotland yet to receive one. Draft plans have been submitted and the detail is under way. However, since the EU referendum, the Tay cities deal has been thrown into uncertainty, which is why I have called for this debate.

In August 2014, the Glasgow city region deal was the first Scottish city deal to be delivered, and it will be worth more than £1 billion over the next 20 years. Half of the funding for it was met by the Scottish Government. It has been followed by deals in both Aberdeen and Inverness, and 75% of the funding for the Aberdeen city deal was raised by the Scottish Government.

The 2016 Budget included an announcement that the UK Government would open negotiations with the Scottish Government for a further city deal for Edinburgh and south-east Scotland. Dundee and Perth are, therefore, the last major city regions awaiting approval.

Cities have been invited to see themselves as catalysts for regional development, and to construct proposals that are based not merely within their city boundary, but across their functional economic area, thereby providing a crucial boost to rural economies.

That brings me to my constituency. Dundee has, of course, taken the lead in co-ordinating an outline proposal for a city regional deal based on two cities—Dundee and the fair city of Perth—and the strategic towns of St Andrews in North East Fife and of Arbroath, Montrose and Forfar in Angus are diverse areas all linked by the River Tay. This is probably the largest population area in the UK mainland that is still awaiting a city deal. Our city region encompasses a population of almost 500,000 and represents 10% of Scotland’s population.

[Steven Paterson (Stirling) (SNP)]

My hon. Friend mentioned a number of major cities in Scotland, but he neglected to mention Stirling, which also wants a city deal and faces similar uncertainty as a result of recent events. I hope that he will support Stirling, as well as the fair city of Dundee.

[Chris Law]

Absolutely. I apologise for not mentioning the wonderful city of Stirling. I wholeheartedly agree with my hon. Friend. I would love confirmation that Stirling will also be seriously considered for a future city deal.

The powerful collaboration is made up of four local authorities—the kingdom of Fife, the ancient seat of Angus, the fair city of Perth and Kinross, and Scotland’s sunniest city, Dundee—along with public agencies such as Scottish Enterprise, VisitScotland, Skills Development Scotland, the chambers of commerce, a wide cross-section of private sector businesses and the four universities in the Tay cities area.

The Tay cities economy is diverse, ranging from agriculture, forestry and public administration to high-tech engineering, life sciences research and development, tourism and, last but not least, the creative industries, in which video game production plays a huge part. It is also the headquarters or the major base of several of the leading 100 companies in the FTSE 100, including Scottish Southern Energy, GlaxoSmithKline, Diageo, Aviva and Stagecoach. The region is intersected by main road and rail transport corridors linking northern Scotland with the central belt and the rest of the UK. The Tay cities area, therefore, accounts for almost 7% of Scotland’s total economic output, and has enormous potential for growth.

The Tay cities partnership bid represents a balance between infrastructure, investment and a number of transformational and collaborative initiatives focused on the devolvement of powers and budgets to create new employment opportunities. Connectivity is a central theme in the Tay cities proposal. The Tay cities region is at the heart of Scotland, and is strategically located between the central belt and Aberdeen and Inverness. However, there is an issue of relative remoteness that needs to be addressed by significant investment in key road, rail and air connections with the rest of Scotland, the UK, Europe and beyond.