Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill [Lords]

Stephen Williams Excerpts

Monday 14th February 2011 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Williams (Bristol West) (LD)]

I guess that you, Mr Deputy Speaker, and many hon. Members have a collection of fridge magnets. I have one back home in Bristol that I acquired on a visit last summer to Hughenden manor. Of course, Disraeli, who lived there, is a rich vein of quotes, and perhaps one of his most famous is that there are “lies, damned lies and statistics”, which is what this debate is all about. Statistics are never more controversial than in economics. There was quite a controversy surrounding the last quarterly growth figures—I will make no jokes about snow—but in forecasts and retrospective reporting, there are random factors, and such reports are often revised.

Forecasting, of course, is even more contentious than retrospective reporting on economic events. I am sure that all Chancellors have at least been tempted to inject political factors into what the hon. Member for Wirral South (Alison McGovern) called the “dismal science” of economics. Whether economics is a science at all is debatable, but it is certainly inexact as a social science, and very heavily influenced by politics. In fact, it was traditionally known as “political economy”.

In all Budgets and autumn statements, Chancellors forecast tax yields and outlined the effect of their policies on employment and unemployment. They said who would benefit and described the impact of their policies on the fiscal balance and debt. As a chartered tax consultant and in the last six years as an MP, I watched a decade of Budgets by the former Prime Minister and Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), whose first act as Chancellor was to set up the independence of the Bank of England, to which many hon. Members have referred. The implementation of a Liberal Democrat manifesto commitment 13 years before we got around to joining the Government was welcome, but after 1997, the former Chancellor made up his own rules as he went along on everything other than monetary policy. The golden rule has been mentioned several times, but his best friend, Prudence, has understandably not been mentioned by Opposition Members, because as we all remember, in all his Budgets and forecasts, everything was rosy. The Chancellor always confounded his critics and said, “Everyone else is wrong. Lo and behold—what a surprise! —I have a marvellous thing to announce.” What happened? The 2008 crash happened.

[Alison McGovern]

On that very note, which was the more prudent: putting the country into a situation in which people could not withdraw cash from the banks or recapitalising the banks, as happened?

[Stephen Williams]

I was talking about events prior to the crash, rather than the policy response to the crash itself, which was in any case initially rather timid and slow. My right hon. Friend the Member for Twickenham (Vince Cable) repeatedly urged the Chancellor to nationalise Northern Rock, which was the first symptom of the crisis, but those urges were resisted for quite some time.

[Alec Shelbrooke]

rose—

[Alec Shelbrooke]

Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker. My hon. Friend was trying to make the point that the key word in the name of the Office for Budget Responsibility is “responsibility”.

[Stephen Williams]

I thank my hon. Friend for that intervention.

Predictions and forecasting are at the heart of the Bill. I slightly disagree with my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster (Mr Field), my coalition colleague, who has now gone off to his black-tie dinner, because the crash—if not its scale—was forecast by my right hon. Friend the Member for Twickenham. I remember him being derided and sneered at in the House at the time, including by the hon. Member for Wallasey (Ms Eagle), who today led for the Labour party.

I welcome the setting up of the OBR, and particularly the appointment of Robert Chote from the Institute for Fiscal Studies as its first permanent chair. I am sure that all hon. Members have cited IFS reports in support of our policies at various times, and that we have all been on the receiving end of its critiques, which are not always welcome. Nevertheless, everyone recognises that those reports were arrived at independently, and therefore that they had authenticity and credibility about them. I also welcome the appointment for five-year terms of Mr Chote’s fellow board members and the ongoing Treasury Committee scrutiny, of which my hon. Friend the Member for Macclesfield (David Rutley) spoke. As we heard, the Bill is not a panacea for dealing with economic ills, but I am sure that the OBR will none the less restore credibility to our statistics and give a sound basis for decisions.

The second part of the Bill, which has not been mentioned much, deals with the National Audit Office. As I have mentioned Disraeli, I will mention in balance Gladstone, who set up the NAO. All Members of Parliament will recognise that the reports produced by the NAO are excellent and well informed across the range of policy issues. As the hon. Member for Stretford and Urmston (Kate Green) said, it is the role of the NAO to review the impact of Government policy especially in financial areas, and to examine whether money has been spent efficiently according to the original remit of the policies. Although the NAO formally reports to the Public Accounts Committee, of which I was briefly a member in the last Parliament, its reports and its work are fundamental to the operation of the House of Commons itself.

I welcome the statement made by the board of the NAO and the professional qualifications now held by some of its board members. I remember going to a briefing by the NAO not long after I became a Member of Parliament and being astonished by the lack of financial qualifications of many people in the civil service—I shall avoid looking in their direction—who none the less managed the purse strings of billions of pounds of public money. Professional qualifications should also be rolled out around Departments.

[David Rutley]

As hon. Members have said, one of the opportunities provided by the OBR will be more expertise from people outside the Treasury, who will put their views, thoughts and experience to work on forecasting. Does my hon. Friend agree?

[Stephen Williams]

Indeed, I do agree and the OBR as it develops will be able to draw on the expertise in the Treasury, although its forecasts must be its own, not the Treasury’s. Over time, the OBR will develop its own in-house expertise, although it will hopefully not grow into too large a quango—if we are still allowed to use that word.

The Bill is an important hallmark of coalition Government. It shows that the Government are interested in transparency and evidence-based policy making, as well as in listening, especially to advice. It will certainly provide confidence in our national statistics and economic forecasts, underpinning the Government’s overriding aim of restoring confidence and stability to our national economy and public finances.

--- Later in debate ---

[Sheila Gilmore]

Our views of when it is appropriate to borrow and what the Government should do about the economy are clearly different. Emotive words have been used in this debate, including the term “mountain of debt”. Coalition Members are fond of saying that interest payments on borrowing are wasted. They are also fond of domestic analogies, and we hear a lot about the national credit card being maxed out, but there is another domestic analogy that we might use. When we pay our mortgage payments, we do not say that that is money wasted—it is money being invested for the purpose of acquiring a home.

When I was the convenor of housing for Edinburgh city council, 40p in the pound of tenants’ rents went on debt repayment. Sometimes the local newspaper and council opposition members would say, “This is terrible mismanagement”, but it was not mismanagement—it was an investment in building homes over many years and improving homes with such luxuries as central heating and double glazing.

[Stephen Williams]

The hon. Lady is talking about debt being run up for investment. Of course the previous Government put most of that debt off the balance sheet of the Treasury completely and into private finance initiative schemes. They ran up debts to fund current expenditure on public services, and that is why we ended up in a crisis.

[Sheila Gilmore]

The hon. Gentleman is wrong about that. Up to the point of the recession, most of the borrowing was for investment in schools, homes, roads and transport projects. Yes, there were some PFI schemes, and I was interested to hear the hon. Member for Elmet and Rothwell (Alec Shelbrooke) castigate such schemes, because it is my recollection that PFI was a favourite mechanism of the previous Conservative Government, who introduced it. Many of my colleagues in the Labour party were less than enthusiastic about it even during the years of the Labour Government.

I am trying to make the point that there are different ways of looking at the economy and at what the appropriate policies are. I was interested in a brief debate in the Treasury Committee about whether the OBR should look at other policies: should it look at the policies of an Opposition what might be? Outwith that, why should it just look at the particular ground rules that the Government have set out? Those rules will represent one view, but there might well be other views and policies that could lead to different results. The Government appear to have rejected the view that the OBR should look at anything other than Government policy, on the grounds that that would not make it politically neutral, but we need real transparency and a proper debate in the country about the best way forward.