Pupil Roll Numbers and School Closures: London

Stephen Morgan Excerpts

Wednesday 7th June 2023 Westminster Hall

[Stephen Morgan (Portsmouth South) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Hollobone. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Vauxhall (Florence Eshalomi) on securing this important debate, and thank her for inviting me to a brilliant school in her constituency earlier this week to see at first hand the impact of falling pupil numbers, and the knock-on impacts on other schools and the community at large. As Members have outlined, those impacts are not to be ignored. Schools with long, rich histories are closing. School leaders and staff have to deal with the uncertainty of not knowing whether their job will exist come September. Parents and children have to cope with the uncertainty of their school potentially shutting.

We have had a range of helpful and insightful speeches and interventions today. My hon. Friend the Member for Vauxhall spoke with passion and expertise about issues faced by not only her constituents but schools across London. She rightly spoke about the impact on parents’ choice, the need for schools to co-operate and work in partnership with other schools and the local authority, the impact of people being priced out of London, and why finding solutions to those challenges is vital for children and their life chances.

My hon. Friend the Member for Eltham (Clive Efford) made insightful comments about the challenges faced by schools in his constituency, especially around SEND places. My hon. Friend the Member for Ealing, Southall (Mr Sharma) made similar points, which were hugely helpful. My hon. Friend the Member for Streatham (Bell Ribeiro-Addy) made helpful points about the need for truly affordable social homes in London, and the poverty that many communities in the capital face. My hon. Friend the Member for Brentford and Isleworth (Ruth Cadbury) spoke powerfully about the implications of falling rolls on the workforce, and on recruitment and retention; I thank her for her contribution.

As has been highlighted, falling pupil numbers and school closures affect not just London. They are impacting different parts of the country at an increasing rate. Recent analysis by The Guardian showed that more than 90 English primary schools are to close or are at risk of closure because they are more than two-thirds empty. A quarter of those at-risk schools are in rural villages, and one in six is in a more isolated part of the country. As Members have said, the problem is most pronounced in urban centres; nearly half of at-risk schools are in cities and towns.

While school closures are threatened across the country, it is in London that the problem is most urgent. The total number of primary school pupils in London schools has dropped by over 23,000 since before the pandemic. There are many reasons for that. First, the falling birth rate, in part caused by the rising cost of housing and the cost of bringing up children, is a major factor. Also, some families have left London in recent years, particularly following the pandemic. Research suggests that a further 2.5% of primary school pupils left for private or home education last year. Many attribute that to the growing number of children struggling with their mental health or not getting the support that they deserve. The same could be said for the increasing number of children with SEND whose parents have taken them out of the school system all together.

As my hon. Friend the Member for Vauxhall said, most school funding is per pupil, so when numbers start to fall, a school’s overall funding falls. The Government rightly changed the rules recently so that all schools are eligible for funding to help manage declining pupil numbers. Association of School and College Leaders general secretary Geoff Barton said:

“Some small primary schools are barely financially sustainable as it is and any loss in pupil numbers is virtually impossible to absorb.”

Having spoken to school leaders, I know that the Government’s approach to school admissions is clearly a major factor. Instead of operating a logical system for school place planning, the Government have opted for a wild west approach. Instead of encouraging schools to co-operate, the Government incentivised them to compete. We have heard from Members about how perverse incentives have caused some schools to expand in areas where that is not needed, causing other schools nearby to close. We are talking not only about struggling schools with poor track records, but good schools with long and rich histories closing their doors—schools that are tied to their communities and have a big impact on them. No one seems to be able to do anything about it.

Clearly, some factors are beyond the Government’s control, but a lot of issues could have been avoided. If we are to put children at the heart of the system, we must take a more careful look at what is going on. My hon. Friend the Member for Dulwich and West Norwood (Helen Hayes) told me about the situation of the St Martin-in-the-Field High School for Girls in her constituency. Shortly before last week’s half-term break, staff and pupils were told that their school would close to most year groups from September, and completely from July 2024. That decision came as a terrible shock to the whole school and the wider community, of which the school has been a part for so many years. She pointed to the lack of any role for the local authority in school place planning over the past decade as being part of the problems that have led to St Martin being forced to close. The Government have continued to allow the expansion of some local schools to go unchecked, and local councils have no ability to intervene and stabilise school provision in order to protect schools that are at risk.

With falling birth rates, threats of school closures will increase. The Department for Education expects the number of pupils at state-funded schools to decline by 944,000 over the next decade, but as we have heard, the Government appear to have no long-term vision for dealing with that. Labour has been clear that we want all schools to co-operate with their local authority on admissions and place planning. We want governors’ and parents’ voices to be heard more consistently when it comes to discussion of the direction of local schools. We will not impose top-down structures, but we will demand collaboration and co-operation in the best interests of our children and the local communities that schools serve.

As Members have highlighted, even the threat of school closures can have a big impact on everyone in a school community. For school leaders, that threat can be incredibly stressful. Not only are they worried about their own job, but they feel responsible for their staff’s employment, and face pressure from parents who are rightly concerned about their children being forced to move school. Teachers in schools at risk are more likely to look for jobs elsewhere, which, during a teacher recruitment and retention crisis, can leave the at-risk schools in an even worse position. School closures also force children to leave the teachers and school support staff with whom they have forged relationships, the routine that they have grown comfortable with, and their friends.

The impact of declining pupil numbers on primary schools is already being seen. In the coming years, those reduced numbers will feed into secondary schools in London and across the country. Labour has been clear that we need a system in which schools are encouraged to co-operate for the shared benefit of teachers, parents and children, rather than compete at the expense of those involved. We need a Government who can deliver a long-term strategy to deal with the impact of the issue, not one who hope to kick the can down the road so that they do not have to address it.

Will the Minister outline the steps he is taking to promote the financial sustainability of schools with falling pupil rolls? What steps is he taking to ensure that schools co-operate on the issue, to their shared benefit? Finally, what is his Department doing to plan for the expected decline in pupil numbers and the impact that will have on schools across the country? I look forward to hearing his remarks and his answers to my questions. Once again, I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Vauxhall, and I restate my praise to her for securing this debate.