Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

Sheila Gilmore Excerpts

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Nicky Morgan]

I am going to make some progress.

As our amendment makes very clear, we are not suggesting that the issues that the shadow Chancellor’s proposals present are insurmountable, but we do believe very firmly that the independence and operation of the OBR is critical. We need to make sure that independence and impartiality is preserved, and as such, Parliament would need time to scrutinise the proposals properly and the OBR still needs time to establish itself fully as an independent fiscal watchdog before being drawn into the political heart of a general election.

Let me turn to the situation that the Government inherited in 2010. First, it is worth reminding the Chamber of exactly why and when the OBR came into existence. Hon. Members will need no reminding of the economic inheritance left to this Government by the Labour party, and on taking office we recognised the need to act quickly in the short term to establish our country’s economic credibility for the long term. The creation of the OBR was vital in that respect.

Back in 2010, our country urgently needed a full and independent assessment of just how bad the problem was because, again and again, the possibility of fiddling figures was tempting, and some would argue that that temptation had been responsible for some of the greatest fiscal policy mistakes of the past 40 years.

[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

One of the slightly odd things about the Minister’s line of argument is that in its initial reports the OBR predicted that growth would be much faster than turned out to be the case, which suggests that the situation then was not quite as dire in the OBR’s view as the Minister is trying to suggest. What happened, surely, was that Government policies then crushed growth.

--- Later in debate ---

[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

Having listened to this debate, there seems to be confusion, or perhaps a conflict of views, on the part of Government Members. The hon. Member for South West Devon (Mr Streeter) was at least consistent in his position, which was not that it is a bad time to do this but that it is a bad idea altogether. Indeed, he did not seem to be all that keen on having an OBR at all. The position of Government Front Benchers, not just today but when this has been raised before, has generally been to say, “Yes, it probably could be quite a good idea and it should be done at some point in the future”—it is always “at some point in the future”. Those two positions do not hold together.

A lot of the reasons that have been given for not doing this now do not stand up to scrutiny. The Minister told us that it is a difficult time of year because it would run into the autumn statement and the Budget. If we are going to continue to have fixed-term Parliaments with May general elections, that will be a problem every single time, not just now. Another argument is that it is too difficult because there is not enough time to recruit people and get something like this off the ground. When the OBR was set up on an interim basis, it got off the ground very quickly. We were told, even at that stage, that we should accept its ability to produce a report, as it did in advance of the emergency Budget in 2010, that was a good and credible piece of work. That happened between May and June. The arguments about there not being enough time to get people in place do not stand up.

Much as I always enjoy the mellifluous tones of the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg), who can get carried away with his own rhetoric, what he said was not correct. He suggested that we would be asking the OBR to look at every single proposal that came up over a period of time and any changes to it. That is not what the motion says. It asks for the auditing of proposals included as part of a general election manifesto. That is not the same as looking at policies that may change because there has been further debate or, as he suggested, through force of circumstance because there are changes out there in the real economy. By the time we are coming to the eve of an election, parties will be producing manifestos with specific proposals. Some of the things that have been debated and proposed by Labour will make it into the manifesto, while perhaps some will not. It is important that those proposals are audited so that there can be some judgment on them.

Despite all the protestations we have heard from the Government Benches about how the OBR must in no way be compromised or brought into the political fray, I have no doubt that as we get closer to the general election campaign, if we are not already in it, we will hear Government spokespeople say, “The OBR says this”, “The OBR says that” or “The OBR has audited our figures.” On that basis the OBR will already have been brought into the political fray, so why not do it properly and have it audit the manifestos of the parties that can form a Government? If Government Members do indeed think that that is a good idea in principle, let us just get on with it.

[Several hon. Members]

rose—

--- Later in debate ---

[Debbie Abrahams]

I am sorry, but I do not have time.

To deny information to the public is absolutely shameful, and that is where the problem lies. Other parties do not want to change; they want the status quo. They want to preside over a country where there is growing inequality. The average person will have £1,600 a year less in their pocket next year compared with 2010, and the average family has lost £974 since 2010 because of the tax and benefit changes, but bank bonuses have soared and the top-to-bottom pay ratio for FTSE 100 companies stands at 300:1. The Government are presiding over such inequalities.

[Sheila Gilmore]

If we propose policies, as the Leader of the Opposition did last week on the provision of training opportunities for young people, it is clearly important for the public to understand that the policies will cost what we say they will cost, and surely this proposal would help.

[Debbie Abrahams]

Absolutely. That is my major argument. I cannot understand any party not wanting to provide information to enable people to make informed decisions.