Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993

Debate between Shabana Mahmood and Jacob Rees-Mogg

Wednesday 30th April 2014 Commons Chamber

[Shabana Mahmood]

What we are being asked to do today is approve a document on the basis that it is an accurate reflection of what is happening in the UK economy. I am afraid that the document does not accept the fact that the Government are not on track to meet the challenge that they set themselves, and promised the electorate that they would deliver on at the last election. They suggested that, if the Chancellor’s programme of fiscal consolidation was pursued—which it was—the budget deficit would be eliminated by the end of this Parliament, and the fact that that is not going to happen goes to the heart of the motion.

However, the Government are not just off track in relation to the central promise that they made to the electorate at the beginning of this Parliament about the elimination of the deficit. The national debt is rising, and the Government are set not to meet their target of ensuring that it falls as a share of GDP by 2015-16, although anyone reading the Red Book in isolation would be forgiven for thinking that everything was going exactly according to their original plan.

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

I am enjoying a good deal of the hon. Lady’s speech, but she ignores the crucial point: the Office for National Statistics substantially revised downwards the economic growth in 2008 and 2009, so the origins of this problem lie with the previous socialist Government, who ruined the economy. Blaming it on the marvellous work of this Government is entirely false.

[Shabana Mahmood]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his intervention, but he will not be surprised to learn that I wholly reject the point he makes. Government Members often try to lay the whole cause of the global financial crisis at the door of the previous Labour Government, but it was a global financial crisis that affected countries all over the world; the Labour Government were not responsible for the fall of Lehman Brothers in the United States. That is the first point I would make in response to him. The second point is that this Government have now been in power for four years and they cannot keep trying to get off the hook about their own record. The important point is that they set a target for themselves. Previous Red Books show what was supposed to happen with this programme of fiscal consolidation, but it has not proceeded at the pace the Government set for themselves. That is not spelt out clearly in the Red Book in open language that anybody could understand.

Anyone looking at the Red Book would be forgiven for thinking that these are halcyon days and everything is exactly as it was always planned to be, but that is not a true and accurate reflection of what is happening in the economy. On page 1 of the Red Book, in a section from which the Minister quoted, we see that

“GDP growth has exceeded forecasts”.

It also states that

“the deficit as a share of GDP is forecast to have fallen by a half by 2014-15 compared to 2009-10”.

Again, that implies, “Everything is okay. Move along. There is nothing to see here.”

Yesterday’s growth figures and the 0.8% growth we have seen in the first quarter are welcome, but they do not make up for the previous three years of flatlining in the economy. We have to remember that in quarter 2 of 2010, growth was at 1.2%, and in 2010 after coming into power the Chancellor said that the economy would have grown by 8.4% by now, whereas in fact it has grown by just 3.8%, which is less than half of what he forecast. Again, what has happened is not quite as rosy when compared with what was supposed to happen in terms of the challenge the Chancellor set himself. It is also not as rosy a picture as is painted in the Red Book.

Let me deal with the point about personal allowances raised by the right hon. Member for Chelmsford (Mr Burns). We see a similar flannelling about what is really going on in the economy when we look at the impact of tax and benefit changes on people on lower and middle incomes and, in particular, on the interplay with their living standards. The Red Book tells us that

“a typical basic rate taxpayer will pay £705 less income tax…in cash terms than they would have paid in 2010-11.”

Page 10 of the Red Book tells us that pressures on household budgets “have eased”, but that is simply not the experience of millions of people on lower and middle incomes in our country. I fail to see how that statement can be true at the same time as the OBR tells us that wages will be 5.6% down in 2015 compared with 2010.

Treasury Ministers have failed to admit that latter point; they have been asked a number of times to accept that the OBR has said that wages will be 5.6% down, but no Treasury Minister has ever answered yes or no to that question. I will happily give way to the Financial Secretary if she wants to confirm that that is the case, but she is looking at her papers and I think she is going to do what every other Treasury Minister and colleague of hers has done, which is duck the opportunity to confirm on the Floor of the House and for the benefit of the record that the OBR is right in saying that wages will be 5.6% down in 2015 on the 2010 level.