Mathematical Sciences: Contribution to Society

Debate between Selaine Saxby and Stephen Timms

Tuesday 15th November 2022 Westminster Hall

[Sir Stephen Timms]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for that intervention, and I do agree with him: maths is a vital enabler of economic growth, and it underpins many technological advancements that contribute so much to UK economic growth. We need to value that.

Deloitte estimates that the mathematical sciences add more than £200 billion a year to the UK economy, that there is a significant salary premium for advanced maths skills, which is calculated to be £8,000 a year, and that the mathematical sciences are of fundamental importance to tackling all our most pressing policy challenges. The hon. Gentleman has just given a good example of that.

The maths that is most familiar to us is about certainty—a x b = c—but maths also provides the tools to quantify uncertainty, underpinning important decisions in medicine and finance, and on the environment. Furthermore, understanding uncertainty is crucial to making decisions on how to deploy limited resources, from allocating hospital beds to dividing up the bandwidth available for telecommunications.

The briefing for the debate provided by the Protect Pure Maths campaign, which I congratulate on its efforts, gives a couple of examples of the use of a mathematical theory called extreme value theory. Unfortunately, my maths course did not include extreme value theory, which has been used in the successful work of Professor Chris Dent and others on energy generation and storage, which has had a big impact on improving energy supply, as well as in the work referred to by the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon), carried out at the University of Lancaster, to build resilience against extreme flood events.

Extreme value theory was not invented for those reasons, but as invariably happens with mathematical theories developed initially because they are beautiful and fascinating, that theory has turned out to have immensely important practical applications. Algebraic geometry is an important set of ideas in pure maths, some of which were in my course, and pure mathematician turned economist Elizabeth Baldwin has applied the theory of algebraic geometry to microeconomics to design an effective auction system for carbon permits. Her work has been used by the Bank of England, and more and more maths is being used in the social sciences and humanities.

Protect Pure Maths is calling for the Government to demonstrate their understanding of the transformative power of maths by launching a strategy for maths to strengthen UK leadership and to equip us to compete in a global economy that is increasingly dominated by big data, complex systems and artificial intelligence. The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries also provided a briefing for the debate, and it points out that mathematics is fundamental to the work of actuaries in insurance and pensions, and in health and care.

In January 2020, there was a warm welcome for the commitment by the then Prime Minister to invest £300 million of additional funding into research in the mathematical sciences. Of that, £124 million has been spent on projects of national importance, including on institutes, small and large research grants, fellowships, doctoral studentships and post-doctoral awards.

Some of that work is concerned with solving current challenges of the kind that I have referred to, but some rightly is to pursue intellectual inquiry of the kind that characterises pure maths, the output of which will almost certainly yield real-world applications in future, although they are not apparent at the moment. More than half the additional investment—£176 million—has not yet been allocated.

The chief executive of UK Research and Innovation has stated:

“We did not receive £300 million specifically labelled ‘mathematical sciences’ despite the announcement.”

The announcement that she referred to was made by the then Prime Minister. We are surely not in the position where a crystal-clear announcement, attracting lots of attention, made by a Conservative Prime Minister, turned out to be untrue. A recent written answer on this from the noble Lord Callanan in the other place suggested that there was doubt about whether the funding would be forthcoming. I hope the Minister will clarify that, and confirm that the funding already announced for hugely valuable mathematical science research will be delivered.

Without that additional £176 million, doctoral studentships, fellowships and research programmes will remain unfunded. University maths departments need clarity about the sustainability of maths funding, in order to give the go-ahead for research and innovation programmes that will last years into the future—programmes that will underpin future technological breakthroughs of great economic importance.

Marcus du Sautoy, Simonyi Professor for the Public Understanding of Science at the University of Oxford, has made the point that

“maths underpins all science and technology”.

So it makes sense, he says,

“to allocate funds to mathematical research, even at a time of tight finances…It would be incredibly unwise to now abandon that pledge.”

We have seen welcome progress with advanced maths education since I was doing the Minister’s job more than 20 years ago. The trend then of falling numbers of A-level applicants and undergraduates was halted and, I think, reversed. Changes introduced by another maths graduate, Charles Clarke, when he was Secretary of State, started the improving trend.

The Protect Pure Maths campaign was initially established in response to some UK universities cutting back their maths provision. Governments might be reluctant to intervene in the decisions of individual universities, but the Government should make clear the strategic importance of maths, and incentivise and support universities to give it priority, particularly beyond Russell Group universities, because maths is becoming an almost exclusively high-tariff degree. There is big growth at many high-tariff university maths courses, with one leading maths department in England increasing its intake from 300 to 600 undergraduates a year, but the courses at low-tariff universities, many of them highly regarded, are shrinking. One of them has gone from 150 to 35 undergraduates a year.

Students from lower-income backgrounds are much less likely to go to university outside their local area. If maths courses become too small to be viable, we will see the emergence of maths deserts, which would reduce access to one of the best degrees in terms of future earnings. We need strong and sustainable maths departments at universities in all parts of the country, and in universities of all kinds.

The other key issue for this Maths Week debate is the low take-up of maths in the UK post GCSE. More 16 to 18-year-olds should be encouraged to take up core maths, which is an invention of this Government that I imagine the Minister had a good deal to do with at the time. The background is that, in 2010, the Nuffield Foundation published a report titled “Is the UK an outlier? An international comparison of upper secondary mathematics education”. It turned out that the answer to that question was yes. Twenty-four countries were surveyed, and the UK had the lowest level of participation in upper secondary maths. Of the 24, England, Wales and Northern Ireland were the only countries with participation of less than 20%.

In June 2011, the then Secretary of State, the right hon. Member for Surrey Heath (Michael Gove), looked forward to a situation in which

“within a decade the vast majority of pupils are studying mathematics right through to the age of 18”.

In 2014, he said that by 2020—two years ago—the vast majority of students would be studying maths in some form after the age of 16. He meant not just A-level maths but the new qualification of level 3 core maths, which teaches the statistical and analytical skills essential to every profession, from law to medicine, and from journalism to manufacturing.

That increase has not happened. Progress in the last eight years has been lamentable—one might even say negligible. The UK remains an outlier. In Germany, Japan and the USA, well over 50% of 17-year-olds are studying maths in some form. In Finland and Ireland, the figure is over 80%. In the UK, it is still below 20%.

[Selaine Saxby (North Devon) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman is giving an exceptional speech. I am delighted to speak out in Maths Week for the subject that I studied and love. Does he agree that one of the challenges for rural schools particularly is that, because of the restrictions of their rural settings, they are unable to have specialist science, technology, engineering and maths sixth forms? I hope the new ministerial team will apply more maths in general to their funding decisions. In rural schools, the funding simply does not add up, and in large education authorities, such as Devon, we do look not at the variance in achievement but only at the average.