(9 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberI concur. This is not an issue for just one community. However, there is an area of the Province along the border that lends itself greatly to cross-border crime, and republicans are up to their neck in that.
There is a query about whether fuel launderers are tipped off ahead of raids. After the 2013 major cross-border police raid on Thomas “Slab” Murphy as part of Operation Loft, the authorities at the time believed that the IRA chief of staff and his associates had been tipped off just hours before, as salvaged from the embers were the burnt remains of laptops, documents and computer discs. The status quo approach to tackling fuel smuggling and laundering is untenable. When the operators of filling stations are successfully prosecuted—this is not really happening at the moment—for selling illegal, laundered fuel, provision should be made in legislation to ensure that these outlets cannot simply be reopened again after a few weeks, as happens at the moment. The community is sickened by this.
The challenges we face are grave. We must take them head on and the Government ought to take them head on. These fraudsters must be stopped and the criminals must be put behind bars. However, a number of questions must be asked regarding Government proposals that are supposed to tackle this problem. Why are the Government continuing to designate the Dow fuel marker in legislation, when they knew a year ago that it was not fit for purpose? Why do the Government not support their own British science company, when its fuel markers are the only IMS-proven—invitation to make submissions—indelible markers recommended? Why did Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs director, Mike Norgrove, give evidence to the 2012 Northern Ireland Affairs Committee inquiry that he would travel anywhere in the world to find a solution for fuel fraud, when he personally turned down an invitation a year earlier by the same British science company that saved the Brazilian Government billions of US dollars and reduced fuel fraud to less than 1% by 2012? Why would any Government allow billion-pound fraud to continue, when a British science forensic solution already exists? Even more troubling to me, however, is that I am told that a Treasury Minister wrote to the NIAC Chairman asking him to keep the Dow launderability confidential. We must do all within our power to stop illegally traded fuel raking in massive profits for the criminal gangs mentioned today.
Does my hon. Friend agree that, apart from the loss of revenue to the Exchequer and the financing of criminal gangs, immense problems are being caused to the environment as a result of toxic chemicals being poured into water courses?
Concern for the environment was also mentioned by a Minister of the Irish Republic recently. The House should be taking this matter very seriously, because damage is being done and we cannot turn a blind eye. The concern that many of us have is that the Government could do more. I cannot understand why those involved in this activity have not been brought before the courts. That is totally unacceptable. The last time anyone was brought before the courts was 2002, even though there are those who are known to have committed this crime.
(9 years, 10 months ago)
Westminster HallWestminster Hall is an alternative Chamber for MPs to hold debates, named after the adjoining Westminster Hall.
Each debate is chaired by an MP from the Panel of Chairs, rather than the Speaker or Deputy Speaker. A Government Minister will give the final speech, and no votes may be called on the debate topic.
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I am sure my hon. Friend will touch on the matter, but does he accept that part of the problem lies with the procurement rules that we inherit from Europe as part of an attempt to create the single market? They lay down pretty draconian requirements when it comes to bidding for Government contracts. We ought to be looking at how those requirements can be amended and how we can raise thresholds to avoid some of the European regulations on procurement.
I agree, but even within the European regulations, there are things we can do and that the Government should do more of to alleviate some of the problems that my hon. Friend mentions.
In the 2013 autumn statement, the Chancellor included measures designed to benefit small businesses, including the introduction of a £2,000 employment allowance from April 2014, making it cheaper to employ staff aged under 21. That incentive, according to the Government, will benefit up to 1.25 million businesses and result in about 450,000 businesses, or one third of all employers, being taken out of paying national insurance contributions altogether.
After the autumn statement, the Government launched the “Small business: GREAT ambition” scheme in December 2013—a series of measures designed to make it easier for small businesses to expand, including the introduction of broadband vouchers worth up to £3,000 in 22 cities throughout the United Kingdom, which were designed to let more small firms access faster broadband connectivity. It is disappointing to note, however, that Malcolm Corbett, head of the Independent Networks Co-operative Association, has said:
“The scheme has not proved as successful as the Government had hoped”.
I therefore encourage those businesses eligible to avail themselves of the scheme before the March 2015 deadline to do so.
Before my hon. Friend moves on, does he accept that there is considerable merit in the point raised about the green procurement card, especially when it comes to the purchase of fresh food for schools and hospitals, which can be locally sourced? There is an environmental as well as an economic argument for sourcing such goods and services locally.
I am happy to agree with my hon. Friend on that point and am delighted that he has a genuine interest in that environmental issue. I am sure that will be noted carefully.
The old proverb says, “Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him to fish and you feed him for life.” Although Stephen Allott, the Government’s appointed SME champion, argues that the
“big change is that procurement reform under Labour was a nice thing to have, whereas today saving money is central”,
the Government need to realise that people’s livelihoods are at stake. Owners of SMEs have often bravely given up a comfortable lifestyle and made significant investment to start up businesses from scratch. They are not mere pawns on a Government chessboard to be played when election time comes around. Much more needs to be done to upskill SMEs in the public procurement process. If a supplier has not bid before and is not very skilled at completing the tender, although it might be the best supplier, it will not win the contract. That was the point raised by my hon. Friend the Member for Upper Bann (David Simpson) a few moments ago.
Interestingly, Mr Allott has stated that the difficulty in fast-tracking the SME agenda arises because of staff cutbacks in the public sector, and notably cuts to the number of individuals in procurement. Such streamlining has led to greater aggravation. It may on occasion save the taxpayer money, but it does nothing to support SMEs. Mr Allott has gone further, stating that the pressures now borne by remaining procurement staff have led many to
“stick with the suppliers they know rather than spend time researching potential partners or having speculative meetings with untried suppliers”—
so it is not what you know but who you know. That leaves SMEs isolated while large companies continue to court those with influence.
On indirect contracts, how will the Government ensure there is a “David and Goliath” approach to prevent prime contractors from driving down prices and creaming off the best work for themselves, leaving slender pickings for their smaller partners? What will the Government’s SMEs champion be doing to help SMEs to get the best possible deal when working with large companies?
(10 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberI am glad that two things have emerged during this debate—first, that this is not some esoteric discussion among the parties in Northern Ireland who cannot agree on some issues and therefore dance around the various points. As members of both Front-Bench teams and other speakers have accepted, the subject has huge implications for the constituents of all Members of the House. If Northern Ireland becomes, as it is becoming, a back door for serious international crime, that impacts on the streets and the people in the rest of the United Kingdom.
The second theme that I hope has come through in this debate is that despite the enormity of the issues at stake, the objections, as described by my right hon. Friend the Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds), are vacuous. I want to deal with some of the objections raised today by the hon. Member for South Down (Ms Ritchie) and the reasons why the SDLP has blocked the proposals.
Many people in Northern Ireland and in the House will find it rather odd that, because of the inability of the NCA to operate fully in Northern Ireland, people who abuse children are getting away with it, people who are laundering money are getting away with it, people who are smuggling drugs are getting away with it, people who are engaged in the smuggling of fuel and so on are getting away with it and building up vast empires. People who are engaged in all these activities are able to keep their ill-gotten gains because of the absence of the NCA.
What is the objection? The SDLP claims that it wants to make sure that the Patten principles are adhered to, it wants to ensure that the accountability mechanisms are all in place, and it wants clarification that there is no clash in the code of ethics. Meanwhile the criminals, who do not give a stuff about Patten principles and all the rest of it, are walking off free. That is the importance of what we are debating here today. Let us look at what is being asked for.
As has been pointed out, we want to make sure that the ineffectiveness of SOCA, which has been described, is not repeated in the National Crime Agency. Of course, there is already a mechanism for doing that. The Chairman of the Home Affairs Committee has pointed out that there is far more accountability in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the United Kingdom. If there is concern about the effectiveness of the NCA, let us remember that it must bring its plan for the year to the Policing Board; it cannot just say, “This is our plan.” The NCA can then be questioned about the implementation of the plan. Not only that, and just in case the National Crime Agency decides, “Well, Northern Ireland is only small beer and we are not too worried about it,” it is required to show how its plan marries up with the Policing Board’s plan for policing in Northern Ireland.
So if the SDLP is concerned about how to ensure that the National Crime Agency will be relevant and effective in Northern Ireland, there is the accountability mechanism. The fact that the NCA has to go along to the Policing Board, which comprises members of the SDLP, my party and all the other parties in Northern Ireland, as well as independents, means that there is every opportunity to make sure that the plan it is putting forward will be effective in Northern Ireland. The NCA will certainly not be effective if it cannot even operate in Northern Ireland. In the absence of full implementation of the Patten principles, whatever that means, that seems to be the alternative that the SDLP is suggesting,
(10 years, 4 months ago)
Commons ChamberI, too, welcome this Bill. Although it does not extend to Northern Ireland, I believe it is an important part of the framework for protecting individuals across the United Kingdom. I will have something to say about the Bill’s application to Northern Ireland in a few moments.
More than 200 years ago, slavery was accepted as part of the norm across the world. Christians in this country believed that it was wrong because all people were equal in the eyes of God. They found a champion in this House, which voted to abolish slavery. The power of the Royal Navy was used to stop international traders who continued to traffick people from Africa to America.
That manifestation of slavery was dealt with by this House. Where there are weak people and strong groups with no moral scruples, however, the exploitation of individuals will continue. More than 200 years later, we see that slavery is still being manifested in many ways. If this debate does anything, it will awaken many people to something that they perhaps did not know was occurring in the United Kingdom—slavery on our doorsteps.
I remember when the issue of slavery was raised in the Northern Ireland Assembly by my colleague, Lord Morrow, who found that people had been brought to the provincial town of Dungannon in his constituency, having been trafficked from other countries, used as prostitutes, beaten and held in captivity. I am sure that many people in Dungannon did not have a clue that was going on. Lord Morrow presented the evidence to the Northern Ireland Assembly, and is currently taking through a private Member’s Bill to deal with that particular issue.
I believe that the Government were sincere in their attempt to legislate, even with only one year of this Parliament left. As other Members have pointed out, a whole range of people have put great pressure on the Government to deal with this issue. I particularly welcome the Government’s recognition that those who are caught up in the slave trade need protection, and that if a case goes to a court of law people need to be sure that they can give evidence without intimidation. The court system and its advocates must help and guide people who might be strangers to our country through the process. We need tougher sentencing and advocates need to raise awareness of the problem with public authorities. I welcome all those aspects of what has been said needs to be done.
Like other Members, I make criticisms of the Bill not because of a sense of churlishness, but because of a sense that if we are to have legislation, and if there is a genuine desire for that legislation, we should ensure that it is effective. I hope that my comments will not be seen as being totally negative, or as being an attack on the Government because I do not believe that they are trying to do their best.
After the House has passed legislation, is it not vital that the courts step up to the mark and take the matter seriously as well? The sentences that are given often do not fit the crime.
I am pleased that the Bill enables sentences to be extended to life, which will give the courts an opportunity to deal properly with the criminals who are involved in the trade of slavery.
As a number of Members have pointed out, the Bill contains a notable omission. The best thing to do is to prevent slavery from happening in the first place. The hon. Member for Sheffield Central (Paul Blomfield) gave us a lot of information. How likely is it that companies that are using slave labour in the United Kingdom will be caught as a result of fewer inspections? I believe he said that there would be one inspection every 250 years, and that there was a chance of employers being convicted once in a million years. That is hardly going to focus the minds of those who use slave labour on the fact that the authorities are going to get them.
I know that one argument will be about the expense of inspections. As the hon. Member for Norwich North (Chloe Smith) pointed out, we know that certain areas and certain industries in the United Kingdom are more prone to using slave labour than others. If there are to be inspections, why can they not target likely employers? Some of them may have a record; there may be local knowledge. If such people are harassed, there may at least be a chance that they will desist from using the slave labour that they are currently exploiting.
It has rightly been said that the offences that have been specified are really just a gathering together of existing pieces of legislation. The fact is—and there may be a number of reasons for this—that the number of convictions has been very low. Even when people have been identified as engaging in the slave trade and using slaves, the percentage who are taken to court and are convicted is below a third. A small number of people are taken to court, and there is a small percentage of convictions. Moreover, given the complexity of the legislation, those cases often take a long time. A case in Northamptonshire involved 200 police officers; 13 arrests were made, and, three years down the line, there were two convictions.
As the hon. Member for Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Michael Connarty) pointed out, it is not that the Government do not benefit from good legal advice. I am not a barrister, but I know that legal advice has been sought on how the offence could be made simpler, more understandable and easier to prosecute. However, none of it has been included in the Bill. If we are to have effective legislation, let us not just gather together elements of legislation that have not been seen to be working so far; let us look at offences and define them in the Bill. Of course the Government may argue that consolidating the legislation and all the support that will be made available will increase the conviction rate, but if the legal opinion is that the plethora of laws at present causes complications, this is the time to change that.
The protection of children has been well highlighted. From her vast experience, the hon. Member for Wigan (Lisa Nandy) made it clear that we need separate definitions and separate measures to deal with the exploitation of children. I cannot understand—the Minister did not make it clear—why a definition of children would cause complications and perhaps lead to even fewer convictions. If the reason is to do with establishing the age, there is an easy way to deal with that. If there is some concern about establishing the age, put the individuals in the general legislation. Where it is clear that we are dealing with children, let us have separate legislation and a separate definition of children.
The next issue I want to raise is in relation to other parts of the UK. The Joint Committee pointed out that, although private Members’ legislation does mirror the Bill, it does not totally mirror it. One easy option would be to ask the Northern Ireland Assembly to pass a legislative consent motion, so that the legislation would apply in Northern Ireland. The alternative is to take separate legislation through the Assembly, but given the length of time it takes to get some legislation through the Assembly, the legislation might be passed not in this Session of Parliament or the next, but the one after that. That gap causes great concern in one particular area: the seizure of assets and their use to recompense victims.
If assets are kept in Northern Ireland or Scotland, will it be possible to pull those assets in when someone is convicted of using slave labour in England and Wales, or will it be much more difficult? In Northern Ireland, we have an added complication. I know that the hon. Member for Foyle (Mark Durkan) tried to dismiss the point I made earlier but it was also highlighted by the Joint Committee. The National Crime Agency is not able to operate fully in Northern Ireland because that is being blocked by the Social Democratic and Labour party and by Sinn Fein. That in turn creates a difficulty in dealing with the trafficking gangs, who may see places such as Northern Ireland as a haven from which they can operate.
(11 years ago)
Commons ChamberEven with a commitment to opening up all the files, would not most of them show only what the security forces did, because there are not the files on what the terrorists did? Indeed, many of them, including the current Sinn Fein president, deny ever having been involved in terrorism.
I accept that many of the atrocities carried out by members of the IRA are not in the files, but there are files on McGuinness and Adams, and it is about time they were brought out, if we are to have this openness we talk about.
The apologies, too, are selective. We have had apologies in the House, but they have been selective. Where was the Government’s apology to the people of Teebane? People might say, “Well, the Government didn’t let it happen”, but yes they did. Successive Governments of this United Kingdom allowed the Provisional IRA to carry out its atrocities. They could have stopped it on many occasions, but what did they do? They wined and dined its members and took them into the places of power, instead of bringing them to justice. If we are to have apologies, therefore, I do not want selective apologies; I want apologies to the families of La Mon, Teebane, Castlederg. I represented that constituency when those people were killed, and I would take Members to visit a little graveyard outside the town of Castlederg— 30 mph speed limit—because proportionally more members of the security forces lie there than in any other part of this United Kingdom. But who really cares? They were just members of the RUC and UDR along the border. They were just ordinary families.
(11 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberI agree wholeheartedly about the importance of those pathways. It is vital that every effort be made to ensure that persons at a vulnerable moment in their lives—this is what the hon. Lady was talking about—receive the best possible support. I will develop that point later.
Does my hon. Friend agree that, as well as prison leavers being vulnerable to suicidal tendencies, one of the groups at most risk are young males involved in the drug culture, and is it not odd, therefore, that some people are still campaigning to legalise drug use?
That is very true, and I agree wholeheartedly with my hon. Friend’s comments. Again, I will seek to develop that point later.
The figures I gave a moment ago represent a welcome reduction on the highest-ever recorded figure of 313 suicides in Northern Ireland in 2010. Nevertheless, Northern Ireland continues to experience higher rates of suicide among adolescents and young adults, particularly young men, than any other part of the UK.
Deliberate self-harm is also a significant problem, with a growing number of cases being seen in hospital accident and emergency departments. Statistics from the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety suggest that almost 500 patients presented at the hospital emergency department in Belfast with deliberate self-harm between April and June 2012. Many more incidents never come to the attention of health services at all. In 2011, the highest rate of registered suicides was recorded in the parliamentary constituencies of Belfast West and Belfast North. In my constituency, 18 lives were lost to suicide, 16 of them males.
(11 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberI rise to oppose the legislation presented by Her Majesty’s Government involving the redefinition of marriage. I know that many people inside and outside the House have desired a slanging match across and around the Chamber, but I feel that the issue we are discussing merits an honourable and considered debate. There are long-lasting implications for the nation, which will be felt when many Members of the House of Commons are no longer here.
I trust that the Bill’s supporters appreciate that those who oppose it do so because of genuinely held beliefs and convictions, many of which were taught to them at their mother’s knee. Most people, even to this day, regard the United Kingdom as a Christian country. To some that is an embarrassment, while others thank God that our nation still has some gospel light and enjoys freedom of thought and speech. Each day, hon. Members gather in this Chamber to hear the Scriptures read and prayer offered to God, humbly asking for God’s blessing upon our Queen, her Government and our deliberations. We as leaders among our people still acknowledge God’s sovereign throne, the authority of His revered word and our need for wisdom far greater than our own. Sadly, after doing so today, we are turning from the teachings of that same book, and placing our wisdom and knowledge above divine wisdom.
It is true to say that to mention Scriptures in debate in this Chamber often brings scorn, laughter, mockery, isolation and intolerance, but Scripture reminds us that God said it was not good that man should be alone, so he brought Eve unto Adam. For thousands of years, in almost all cultures, marriage has been defined to be a lifelong union between a man and a woman. Marriage is an institution given by God for the good of all mankind in every age and has been the bedrock institution of family and society, but today our Government intend to sweep away a definition that has served our nation well for centuries and to impose new standards and values on the whole of society, irrespective of religious beliefs or personal convictions. Surely religious liberty and freedom of conscience are not to be cast aside on a whim, simply because political parties perceive that by doing so they will get some electoral advantage?
Recently we have witnessed people throughout the United Kingdom experiencing persecution for freely expressing support for traditional marriage. We had a debate in this House last week in which the hon. Member for Gainsborough (Mr Leigh) mentioned Adrian Smith and Lillian Ladele, and we should not forget Arthur McGeorge, Dr Angela McCaskill, Dr Bill Beales, and Peter and Hazel Bull. Many of those people faced or endured suspension from their job, dramatic loss of earnings, demotion, disciplinary action and court hearings simply because they dared to express their belief in traditional marriage. Redefining marriage will have serious consequences, far beyond those intended by the Bill.
Does my hon. Friend agree that thousands of teachers across this country could find themselves on the wrong side of the law in so far as the legislation requires them to teach the nature of marriage? If the nature of marriage is changed in this Bill, those who refuse to teach that new nature could find themselves on the wrong side of the law.
I thank my hon. Friend for that timely intervention. In recent times, I have witnessed intolerance against Christianity. While people do not dare to speak against other religious figures, the precious name of the Lord Jesus is often tramped into the gutter. Many regularly look at our nation and wonder what is happening to it. I say to a Member who spoke earlier that the Lord Jesus Christ, whom I love and worship, was not an illegitimate child, but was and is the son of the living God.
When the Minister came to the Dispatch Box to introduce her Bill, she was asked about the rights of teachers who fail to endorse same-sex marriages in the classroom; she was asked whether they could be dismissed. Do parents have the legal right to withdraw their children from lessons that endorse the Government’s new-found definition of marriage across the curriculum? What is the position for charities that promote traditional marriage values? What protection can they expect?
(13 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberI absolutely agree. I have consistently supported that, and back home have received some criticism for doing so, as people ask, “Are you therefore saying we should have a nuclear power station in Northern Ireland?” If it produces cheap electricity and deals with some of the problems people in my constituency face, of course I am happy to support that—although whether there are sufficient economies of scale in the Northern Ireland market to support a nuclear power station is another matter.
I agree with the hon. Gentleman about the short-sightedness of previous Governments, and I welcome the Secretary of State’s U-turn. Although he tried to cover that up today, he has clearly performed a U-turn on this issue. When he was in opposition he opposed nuclear energy, but now that he is in government he supports it, although he adds about 100 caveats to that support—the conversion process may take a little longer than we expected.
Reference has been made to the possibility of huge shale gas finds in Lancashire. The relative costs of electricity generation are as follows: 2.2p per kW for gas-fired electricity as against 7.2p per kW for offshore wind farms. Offshore wind is therefore three and a half times more expensive.
We say that we want 30% of our electricity to be generated by offshore wind by 2030, but that has implications for consumers across the United Kingdom. Regardless of our views on climate change, there ought to be some honesty in this debate. I do not know what the impact on global temperatures might be if we were to decarbonise our economy and reduce our CO2 emissions, which account for 2% of the world’s CO2 emissions, by 10% or 20% by 2020, but there will be a price to be paid by each of our constituents, and we ought to make that clear.
Does my hon. Friend agree that the increase in fuel prices will lead to many of our elderly and disabled people, who need heating most of all, not being able to afford it?
Now that I have had my say on this particular part of the motion, I want to discuss some of the ways we can deal with the situation. We need to consider three periods. There are things we can do in the short term. Hon. Members have asked why pressure is not being put on the big energy companies to ensure that some of the windfall profits—I do not care what we call them, but we are talking about the increased profits—are redistributed in the form of lower prices. I understand that these companies have to make profits. If we want investment in the infrastructure for the future, there is no point saying that we want to strip profits from the companies that are going to have to make that investment. The question is whether those profits are excessive and whether, at this particular time, some of those profits should be going back to consumers. That could be in the form of price reductions, greater transparency about what is available or any of the suggestions that have been made, but the issue must be dealt with.
The second issue to address is that of winter fuel payments, which was raised by my right hon. Friend the Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds). Those payments have been reduced and it is not good enough for the Government to say, “We’re following the same policy as the party that used to be the party of government.” As I pointed out, part of this problem has been caused by Government policy and so it is essential that we find some way to help the most vulnerable. Of course it is going to cost money but this issue needs to be addressed.
In the medium term, we must examine how we help people to reduce their energy bills. That could be through what we in Northern Ireland call the warm homes scheme, but what the rest of the United Kingdom calls the Warm Front scheme. The warm homes scheme was introduced by my right hon. Friend and it has gone from strength to strength. It has taken a lot of households out of fuel poverty, although I take the point made by the hon. Member for Glasgow North West (John Robertson), which is that it does not matter how much is spent on some homes as there will not be a significant reduction in the energy people use so fuel poverty will remain. The warm homes scheme in Northern Ireland has not just been a way of dealing with the social problem of fuel poverty; it is labour-intensive and so has been a useful scheme in creating local employment—it has a high local multiplier effect—at a time when we are looking for opportunities.
In the longer term, we have to be realistic about green policies. I welcome the Chancellor’s remarks that we should not be pursuing policies on decarbonising the economy if they place our economy at a disadvantage compared with others across the world. While the European Union is preaching about reducing carbon emissions, the German Government have a much more realistic view. They are actually investing in 20 coal-fired power stations and in nuclear, because they want to find ways of producing cheap energy. In the long term we have to look at our investment priorities and whether we are following the correct policy. If, in the long term, we wish to invest in that way, we need to consider how we are going to deal with the consequences.
(13 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberI hope I am not quoting the Chancellor wrongly, but I think he talked about nine years in the future before those changes have an impact, so again we have to ask, “What is the impact going to be?”
Does my hon. Friend agree that the Chancellor missed a vital opportunity for the Northern Ireland economy today? Does my hon. Friend think it right that a £7.5 billion loan from the British Exchequer to the Government of the Irish Republic should be used to enable that Government to abolish air passenger duty, which in turn gives them an unprecedented competitive edge on flights, bearing in mind that it impacts on my constituency and the international airport in it?
I am a bit miffed, because I wanted to use that point later in my speech, so I will have to scribble it out. When we look at some of the issues, whether they are the delays, the amount of money being put in, the offsetting of increases in taxation when some tax cuts have been made, the regulations or the consultation that has still to take place with Europe to see whether we can reduce red tape, we have to ask whether the predictions for future growth based on the supply-side measures in the Budget are as fragile as the autumn predictions that were wiped out by a fall of snow. If that is how fragile the predictions are, then I have concerns.
There is another side to the coin, because not only do we have to increase the productive potential of the economy, but people must be willing to purchase the goods that can be produced, and aggregate demand can be made up of several different factors. The Government have already ruled out one for very good reasons, and I accept that the deficit has to be reduced. I may have some issues about how quickly it is being reduced, but the one thing we do know is that Government spending is not going to take up the slack that already exists in the economy.
Consumer spending is not going to take up the slack, either, because the Chancellor made it quite clear that he would not make any tax giveaways. Indeed, if one looks at what he said about the indexation of direct taxes, one finds that he has now built automatic increases into the tax system for the next four years. There will not be discretion on a year-to-year basis; inflationary increases are now built into the tax system.
That leaves investment demand and exports, and it seems that the Chancellor is emphasising the role of exports. Given that over the past year and a half the exchange rate has fallen by 20%, our export growth is still one of the weakest among the OECD countries. Investment might improve competitiveness, but the only direct measure that the Chancellor has produced today is the export credit guarantee. I have quickly looked through the Red Book to see how much the guarantee involves, and I cannot get a figure, but that is the only measure to increase the one component of aggregate demand on which the Chancellor is relying to improve growth in the economy.
If we look at the supply-side measures and the lack of demand-side measures, we have to ask, “Can we really be confident that this is a Budget for growth?” The conclusion that I come to—not because I want to take a pot-shot at the Government, but because I want to get in behind the figures to see whether the hope being held out is genuine—is that I am left with some concerns.