Budget Resolutions

Robert Jenrick Excerpts

Wednesday 27th October 2021 Commons Chamber

[Robert Jenrick (Newark) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Wallasey (Dame Angela Eagle). Unlike her, having recently left the Cabinet, I am grateful to the Treasury for all the effort that it has made to keep us informed of what will be in the Budget—I have never approached a Budget knowing quite as much in advance. However, I would still like to speak about a couple of elements that I think are quite significant.

One of those elements is the change in the universal credit taper rate, which will help millions of people throughout the country. It underlines a fundamental Conservative objective, which is to make work pay, and I strongly welcome it. I also think it important that we have announced an increase in the national living wage, which, again, will help us to build that higher-wage, higher-productivity economy that is so fundamental to our economic plan.

I also want to put on the record my praise for the Chancellor, which is contrary to some of the remarks we have heard today. I think that his stewardship of the economy over an extraordinary year and a half is enormously to his credit, and I think that that is reflected in the public confidence that he has built up for himself and for the Government over that period. We are seeing the economy bouncing back better—still scarred, but in a significantly better position than many people would have imagined. We are seeing employment in an immeasurably stronger position than we would have imagined just a few months ago, along with a commensurate surge in tax revenues that contrasts with the gloomy forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility the last time we heard from the Chancellor. I share the view of my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (John Redwood): we have to question how useful the OBR is when its forecasts are so far out, and have to hope that it can raise its game in the future.

Let me make a few brief points. First, I think the Chancellor was right to continue to highlight the cost of living as a major issue. I do not think we should assume that inflation will be fleeting and transitory; I think it could be with us for a long time, which is why it is important that we take action. The action on the universal credit taper rate will help, as will the national living wage, and the changes in fuel duty and other items will be useful as well, but we must prepare ourselves—steel ourselves—for the likelihood that this year and most of next year will be marked by a significant pressure on people on low and medium incomes.

Secondly, I am very concerned about the current level of public spending, and the size of the state. We must be honest with ourselves, and acknowledge that on top of the £400 billion of unplanned outlay that was required to get us through the covid response, we are now seeing the size of the state increase to the largest that it has been in peacetime. The amount of public expenditure today is higher than it was during the financial crisis; it is about the same as it was under Denis Healey in 1976, when he had to go cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund. The size of the state is large, and we have heard from the Chancellor today that it is going to grow even further, beyond 41% of national income. History suggests that that is not a sensible long-term level for public expenditure, because it starts to crowd out the private sector, and makes it hard to build and sustain the free-market, free-enterprise economy that we all want to see.

That leads me to two points. One is that we have to ensure that this public money is well spent. I think particularly of the NHS, which is soon to account for 40% of total current expenditure. That is a significant amount. Many of us, and our constituents, want to see the NHS properly funded, but a heavy burden of responsibility now falls on the Department of Health and Social Care to ensure that the money is well spent and is accompanied by reform. I remember previous settlements, including the one referred to by my right hon. Friend the Member for Maidenhead (Mrs May). Just a couple of years ago, money was given to the NHS without a proper plan for reform and was not well spent, so I hope that this money will be spent differently.

The second point is the difference between funding for day-to-day purposes and funding that will genuinely increase productivity in the economy. At the end of the day, as many Members have already said, it is all about productivity growth. The forecasts that the Chancellor set out earlier today were for one or two years, if we are to believe the OBR, of very significant growth in the economy, and then a return to low levels of growth— 1% or 1.3%—with perhaps a decade of low growth ahead of us.

We have to improve productivity, and in that respect there was much to commend in the Budget and the spending review: significant increases in infrastructure, particularly the sorts of infrastructure, such as roads, railways and broadband, that will genuinely improve productivity and boost the economy, and the work on skills—in particular lifelong learning, which for too long has been a weakness in our country.

[Adam Afriyie (Windsor) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend is making a powerful speech about productivity. Does he share my delight that the Chancellor announced tax relief for investment—certainly in the short term and hopefully in the longer term? Hopefully, that will enable businesses to do the heavy lifting rather than the Government trying to do it for them.

[Robert Jenrick]

I agree entirely with my hon. Friend. At the end of the day, the way we boost productivity is by backing the private sector in the economy. The way we grow the economy is to make the UK a more competitive place to do business. That will mean ensuring that we attract investment from overseas. It will also mean correcting the poor levels of trade that we have seen in recent years, as has been mentioned. That needs to change. It also means ensuring that we as a Government bring forward some of the supply-side reforms that we will have to implement if we are going to make ourselves more innovative and competitive.

[Seema Malhotra (Feltham and Heston) (Lab/Co-op)]

The right hon. Gentleman has had a position at a senior level of Government overseeing local government, and I wonder whether he would like to modify his comments slightly. Of course I understand that the private sector is vital for our growth and productivity, but strong public services and strong local government are also critical for helping to enable a strong local economy. Does he not feel that it is important to build that into the Government’s thinking?

[Robert Jenrick]

Absolutely; I do not demur from that, but we have to find the right balance in our country between public expenditure and ensuring that the private sector can flourish. I worry that we have now reached the moment at which there is not much more that we can spend.

We have to ensure that we grow our way out of this challenge. That was illustrated in some of the Chancellor’s announcements today, including those on research and development relief, the continuation of the investment allowance, the support for skills and also the maths support, about which I would be interested to hear more detail. This is also about ensuring that we have sensible tax arrangements in this country that can incentivise investment and ensure that businesses can prosper. The overall tax burden is at its highest sustained level in peacetime, and I worry that we will not be able to go much further than that.

I want to make one last point briefly before closing, because I appreciate that—

[Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough) (Con)]

Will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Robert Jenrick]

I really should not, because—

[Sir Edward Leigh]

It is very pertinent to him.

[Robert Jenrick]

How can I refuse?

[Sir Edward Leigh]

I want to say a fantastic big thank you to my right hon. Friend personally, because it has just been announced this minute that Gainsborough is getting £10 million of levelling-up funds. I relentlessly lobbied him on this, and I have lobbied his successor, so a big thank you!

[Robert Jenrick]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for ending on such a positive note. I know Gainsborough well—it is my neighbouring constituency—and I am delighted for him and his constituents.

I shall close where I began, which is by saying that there was a huge amount in the Chancellor’s announcements to be applauded. I commend him and the Treasury team and wish them well. The focus now needs to be on growing the economy and making the UK the most competitive place it possibly can be, rather than seeing taxes rise and expenditure increase, risking the private sector not being able to flourish and build that optimistic vision that the Chancellor laid out.