The Economy

Richard Drax Excerpts

Tuesday 11th December 2012 Commons Chamber

[Richard Drax (South Dorset) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Islington South and Finsbury (Emily Thornberry). I agree with her on one point: everyone should pay tax, but more of that later.

May I pay tribute to those who made their maiden speeches, and welcome them to this place? I remember mine all too clearly; it is a nerve-wracking moment for all of us.

In the eight minutes that I have, I do not want to look back or play the blame game with the Opposition, other than to remind the country of their profligate years, but enough said: we have to look to the future and how we get ourselves out of this mess. Let me go back over some basic principles which, it seems to me—maybe I am getting this horribly wrong—many in the House have forgotten. Baroness Thatcher, a lady for whom I have huge respect and admiration, was brought up, as the House knows, in a grocer’s store. Her economic principles, like most of her principles, were very simple and on the whole they were sound: “You spend what you earn. You borrow too much and you go broke. Eating into capital is the road to ruin.” She believed in a light-touch, low-tax Government.

We had the chance to be radical when we came to power, but regrettably, linked to the Lib Dems as we are, that was never going to be a reality. Taxes, both business and personal, remain at punitive levels. They curtail incentive, reinvestment, aspiration and jobs. Employers’ national insurance contributions are a classic example. I run a business, albeit a small one, and pay nearly 15% for each person I employ. That is madness, and it is certainly not based on Conservative or free-marketeer principles. My advice to those on the Government Front Bench is to scrap employers’ national insurance contributions if they want to see unemployment fall and businesses thrive.

The deficit is down, which I welcome, but borrowing is rising, as we have heard, and state expenditure remains unacceptably high, with savings in real terms at negligible levels. So we print more and more money—it is called quantitative easing—tons of it, in fact, and down the plug it has gone. But at some stage it will spill over into the bath and we will start to spend it. Inflation will rise and interest rates will inevitably have to rise to combat it. At that stage, we will see pain on an unprecedented level in this country.

In the meantime, we pile more and more taxes on the better-off, who already face punitive rates, while those at the bottom are taken out of tax altogether. Why? The hon. Member for Islington South and Finsbury said that everyone should pay their taxes fairly. If we take those on the lower end out of tax altogether, what incentive do they have to put away their rubbish or to contribute to their fire or police service?

[Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East) (Lab)]

The hon. Gentleman’s view of economics seems to miss the fact that when Governments invest, jobs are created, more money comes into the Treasury and less goes out by way of wasteful benefits. What has gone wrong in the last two and half years is that the Government have pulled the plug on investment, which now, rather belatedly, they are trying to put back in a small way. By the way, some people might not be paying income tax, but they are paying council tax towards the very services he has just mentioned.

[Richard Drax]

Unfortunately, the Government have invested; the hon. Lady is absolutely right. Governments, particularly during Labour’s 13 years in office, invested to such an extent that we are now in the mess we currently find ourselves in. It is not for Governments to play economics; it is for business men and women, entrepreneurs, small businesses and retailers to generate our economy. I hear again and again from people on all sides that the broadest shoulders should bear the biggest load and that we are all in it together. We are not, and we never will be, and we fool ourselves and do a disservice to those struggling to make ends meet if we think otherwise. Let us not forget that the better-off, whether businesses or individuals, play a useful role in our economy. Except for a few notable occasions, they pay tax. They create jobs and buy goods, which generates jobs, and in many cases they take their wealth responsibly and give back in countless ways, so let us stop killing the golden goose.

The simple fact is that we must cut state expenditure. The EU is a classic case. Some £51 million a day goes to that unaccountable, Soviet-style bureaucracy, the same EU that mislays €5.2 billion every year, according to the European Court of Auditors. Yet they want more, and we give it to them. We boast about giving 0.7% of our GDP in overseas aid. Do not get me wrong: I am all for charity, but charity should start in this country, particularly now that so many of our constituents are struggling. Let me give an analogy, the farming analogy, as I call it. If a third-world country needs to learn how to farm, we do not send it millions of pounds that go into the pockets of some genocidal maniac; we send a farmer and we teach them how to look after themselves. How many apprentices, nurses, doctors, hospitals and schools could be looked after if we had all the money that is going abroad?

Let us not forget the defence of our country and our armed services, which are being slashed to an unforgivable level. We have a bloated welfare bill; it has been discussed in this place again and again. Then there is the NHS, where all sides bury their heads in the sand. That bill will go on rising and rising to unaffordable levels. There may be—I am sure there is—another way, but no, we do not do that; we ring-fence it instead.

We need a country where the entrepreneur—the business man and woman—can fly free of red tape, punitive tax rates and burdensome regulations from the EU. In South Dorset, I have a young Marine who has set up a company called Ovik Solutions. He makes armoured vehicles based on old Land Rover chassis. Riot-proof and bomb-proof, they are currently serving in Northern Ireland—120 of them. One can see the white vehicles—they are his. The company is going from strength, from employing two people to 15. Ovik will provide British jobs, based on British engineering and ingenuity, in Britain. How ironic that its inspiration, Jaguar Land Rover, is now owned by India and production is moving to China.

What lessons have our Government learned? Here we are, on our knees, and what do we do? We appoint the right hon. Member for Twickenham (Vince Cable) as the Business Secretary. This man is no friend of business; he is a friend of those who say “Tax, and tax, and tax, and tax.” We do not need a man of that ilk in charge of our business.

Another crazy move, brought in by the Opposition when in government, involves our brewing industry. I am of course talking about the beer duty escalator—it is absolutely mad; jobs are going in their scores every year—and it is possible for no other reason than that people like to drink beer. This is a home-grown industry that we are singularly doing an awful lot to destroy.

What must we do? We must deregulate, we must lower taxes, and we must cut state expenditure. Yes, there will be pain—of course there will—but I am convinced that in the longer term, if the private sector is allowed to flourish, as it has done, much to this Government’s credit, with the creation of 1 million new jobs, then we, and it, will create the wealth and the jobs that we need.

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[Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) (Lab)]

I congratulate my hon. Friends the Members for Middlesbrough (Andy McDonald), for Croydon North (Steve Reed) and for Rotherham (Sarah Champion), who gave three excellent speeches and demonstrated the great capabilities and talent coming into the parliamentary Labour party and which we hope to see more of in 2015.

The economy has been weakened by poor decisions by the Chancellor leading to declining growth, so borrowing is higher, which means that the public debt is worse. While public spending totals are similar to those in the March Budget, tax revenue forecasts are far more pessimistic. The Office for Budget Responsibility suggests that by 2015-16 tax receipts will be £662 billion instead of £692 billion. That is a 4% overestimation, as corporation tax, income tax and VAT at 20% have not brought in and will not bring in the tax take expected. That £30 billion shortfall translates into a £30 billion rise in public sector net borrowing.

In every year except 2012-13 borrowing is higher, and the gap grows over time. This year’s figures are flattered by the £3.5 billion sale of the spectrum for 4G, which is yet to occur, and by the £5 billion tax deal with Switzerland. Let us look at the Chancellor’s much lauded

“largest tax evasion settlement in UK history”.

It is anticipated by the Chancellor to bring in more than £5 billion over the next six years, although the OBR described that clearly as “highly uncertain” because of the lack of information about the value of the assets held by UK citizens in Switzerland. Indeed, the Treasury has stated:

“The final stage of the ratification process is expected to be concluded shortly, but there remains a possibility that the Swiss government will have to hold a referendum on the agreement… This is therefore a significant fiscal risk to the forecast.”

The Treasury added:

“The estimated revenue raised by this measure is also highly uncertain as there is little hard information about the value of UK individuals’ financial assets in Switzerland, and how these individuals will respond to the policy.”

Apart from those settlements, by 2015-16 three years of higher borrowing will push up public sector net debt by £67 billion, or 4%. The Chancellor’s own rules state that public debt as a share of national income must fall by 2015-16. To pass that test, the growth in public debt must be lower than growth in cash or nominal GDP.

In March, the OBR massaged its nominal GDP growth forecast up to 5.7% in 2015-16 alone, in order just to exceed the 5.3% rise forecast in public sector net debt. Now the OBR has slashed its GDP growth forecast for that year to 4.6%. No matter how much the Chancellor likes to fudge and fiddle the figures, he cannot massage down the 5.9% hike in debt forecast by the OBR for 2015-16. The chances of his meeting the terms of his own debt rule have taken only two and a half years to be completely destroyed by the growth-strangling policies he now wishes desperately to reverse, as we saw with the U-turn on capital allowances. The Chancellor says he has missed his debt rule by a fraction and that he will retain the 2015-16 debt target, even though it will now be impossible to hit.

The public finances are now difficult to compare with those under previous Budgets because the statistics are affected by large transfers of cash or classification changes. In fact, the Chancellor’s raid on surplus funds sitting in the Bank of England originates from his quantitative easing programme. The OBR says the surpluses are temporary, so although the Chancellor’s cash grab flatters headline public borrowing figures by some £12.3 billion in 2013-14, future Governments will have to repay the Bank of England an estimated £6 billion to £7 billion in 2021-22 for this Chancellor’s record purchasing of our own bonds. Without that cash grab, the Chancellor would have broken not just his fiscal rule—which he clearly has—but his debt target for 2016-17 and his deficit promises.

Here we are, going into 2013, and all the Chancellor can say is that we need another five years to deal with the deficit problem. That is exactly the same statement he made in June 2010—a stagnant sentence for a stagnated economy, stifled by a part-time Chancellor. This is an autumn statement following autumn statements and Budgets for the last two and a half years, all of which have failed to meet any of the stated aims of the Chancellor’s original objective. Two and a half years later, we are still five years away from the total eradication of the deficit. This Government will have accrued more debt in five years than in the entire 13 years of Labour’s rule. Under this Chancellor’s watch, in 2015 the UK will unfortunately hold the worst public sector net deficit in the west, according to OBR and IMF figures.

Was the autumn statement a growth strategy? No. Is this a deficit and debt-reducing strategy? No. Is this a strategy for borrowing? Yes it is, and on the backs of the low and middle-income workers—borrowing for failure, not for investment.

[Richard Drax]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Tom Blenkinsop]

I am sorry, I will not.

Can the Chancellor guarantee that we will borrow at a low interest rate because we will still have a triple A rating? No. The very cornerstone on which this coalition is premised has been utterly flawed. As a result, a recovering economy in May 2010 has been so damaged that we have witnessed a double-dip recession, with the strong likelihood that it will become a triple-dip recession—something that the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills had to admit only this Sunday was a distinct possibility. In essence, the Chancellor is on the brink of exchanging the triple A credit rating he inherited from Labour—and which he prized most of all—for a potential triple dip of his own making.

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[Mr Meacher]

No, I am not going to give way; I have not even started. I am just observing what has happened.

I congratulate my three new hon. Friends the Members for Middlesbrough (Andy McDonald), for Rotherham (Sarah Champion) and for Croydon North (Steve Reed) on what I thought were quite remarkable speeches—confident, informed, quite amusing in places and committed. When I first came to this House—a long time ago—new Members took their listeners on a tour of their constituencies, touching on the buildings, the people and the history, but saying nothing about politics. That was not the protocol. I am glad that that rule has gone. We heard passionate speeches today that were all about politics, including the national health service, child care services and the defence of the unemployed. I think that all three of my new hon. Friends will make a big contribution to this House.

[Richard Drax]

I do not want to touch on the economy, but may I just say that if what the right hon. Gentleman has just described was indeed the case, is it not rather sad that that protocol was not observed?

[Mr Meacher]

I obviously made a mistake in giving way to the hon. Gentleman.

As the Chancellor acknowledged, he had two main objectives in his autumn statement/mini-Budget. One was to generate the growth that has certainly eluded him for the past two and a half years; the other was to rebalance the economy and lay the foundations for genuine, sustainable, long-term growth. He failed miserably on both counts. On the first test, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the Federation of European Employers, the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce and the Federation of Small Businesses have all been telling him that he simply must inject growth into the economy and stop endlessly hacking away at public expenditure. Just how desperately such actions are needed is shown by the fact that the Chancellor’s own forecast in his 2010 Budget that cumulative public sector net borrowing over the next four years would be £322 billion has now been increased to a staggering £539 billion. That is an increase of £217 billion. The key point is that that increase is almost wholly attributable to the failure of the economy to grow. That is the significant point behind this debate.