Budget Resolutions

Peter Grant Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2024 Commons Chamber

[Rachel Reeves]

My hon. Friend has done the maths and is absolutely right. Taking into account the changes to the tax threshold, the announcements yesterday and in November, and council tax, by the end of the forecast period the average family will be £870 worse off.

As the Resolution Foundation highlighted just this morning, the 8 million tax-paying pensioners will see their taxes increase by an average of £1,000. That is a collective £8 billion tax grab from our nation’s pensioners. As Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said yesterday:

“This remains a parliament of record tax rises.”

That is the legacy of this Conservative Government.

The Tory Government’s pickpocketing has meant higher taxes on working people, leaving them with less money at a time when their daily lives are getting more expensive. Yesterday, the Chancellor said that a person on average earnings is £900 better off, but let us take a look at that claim. He has ignored not only his own stealth tax rises, with the tax thresholds and council tax, but the rising costs of energy bills, food, mortgages and rent. In fact, rather than being better off, as he claimed, household disposable income is set to fall by £200 per person over the course of this Parliament.

[Peter Grant (Glenrothes) (SNP)]

I completely agree that deliberately leaving tax thresholds untouched at a time when pay and prices are increasing is a stealth tax. It is a stealth tax when this Chancellor does it, but it was also a stealth tax when Gordon Brown did it.

[Rachel Reeves]

It is interesting to have an intervention from the SNP, which is increasing taxes on ordinary working people—I would probably just stay on the Bench.

This is the only Parliament on record in which living standards are set to be lower at its end than at its beginning. The Chancellor chose to ignore all those realities, but the truth is that ordinary families cannot ignore them. As people up and down the country know, the definition of being better off is having more money. Under the Tories, people have less. People feel worse off because they are worse off.

Let us look at economic growth. Growth is critical for our success as a nation, for our living standards and for provide sustainable funding for public services, but the Tories have failed there, too. The context of yesterday’s Budget is a Prime Minister who pledged growth but has delivered recession. This economy is now smaller than when the Prime Minister took up office. Instead of bouncing back, the UK’s GDP is bumping along the bottom this year.

In his statement, the Chancellor rightly elevated the true measure of success:

“not just higher GDP, but higher GDP per head.”—[Official Report, 6 March 2024; Vol. 746, c. 837.]

I agree with him that that is the most important yardstick, so how are the Tories doing against that measure? The reality is that GDP per capita is set to shrink, not grow, this year, having shrunk and not grown last year, too. GDP per capita is now expected to be lower at the end of this year than it was at the start of this Parliament. Yesterday, we learned that forecast GDP-per-capita growth has been revised down for four of the next five years—hardly the success that the Chancellor was looking for.

The Chancellor said that it was important not to follow a path that relied on net migration to provide growth and GDP, and I agree. Has the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions seen the chart on page 29 of the Office for Budget Responsibility economic and fiscal outlook, which shows that net migration has been revised up by 350,000 over the next five years? That is the exact opposite of what the Chancellor spoke about.

Our country has gone through a difficult time over these past few years. The origins of many of the crises we have faced are global: pandemic, war, and the energy crisis. Other countries have also experienced those shocks, but each time crisis has hit, Britain has found itself acutely exposed because of the choices of successive Conservative Governments: austerity that choked off investment, then Brexit without a plan, and then the Tories crashed the economy with their kamikaze Budget.

This Tory record of economic failure has held our country back for far too long. If the UK economy had grown at the average of the OECD rate since 2010, when the Conservatives came to office, it would now be £140 billion bigger than it is today. That is equivalent to £5,000 per household every year, and would mean an additional £50 billion in tax revenues to invest in our public services. Growth matters, but the Tories are incapable of delivering it. [Interruption.] The hon. Member for Newcastle-under-Lyme (Aaron Bell) says from a sedentary position that we are doing better than the G7. There are only two G7 countries in recession today: us and Japan. That is the Conservatives’ record, and they should be ashamed of it.

This is the 12th Tory plan for growth in 14 years, and we are still in recession. Twelve plans from five Prime Ministers and seven Chancellors, with none of them succeeding. We are trapped in a Tory doom loop of low growth and high taxes, and it is working people who are paying the price.

[Rachel Reeves]

Those numbers about pensioners who pay tax are from the Resolution Foundation. They were published this morning, so the hon. Gentleman can also look at them, but it is a fact that because the tax thresholds have been frozen, pensioners who pay tax are paying more tax than they were before. That is the legacy of this Government. This is not just about lines on a graph. It is about our high streets, it is about whether businesses grow, and it is about whether we can create secure, well-paid jobs in all parts of the country, with more money in the pockets of working people, because if an economy does not work for working people, it does not work at all.

When the Tories are not pickpocketing the taxpayer, they are pickpocketing Labour policies. Having spent years defending the indefensible, the Tories have belatedly listened to Labour and recognised the importance of closing the non-dom tax loophole. I believe that if people make Britain their home, they should pay their taxes here too. The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the steady state amount of revenue raised by the non-dom policy is £3 billion per year. I first called for that loophole to be closed when it entered the public consciousness two years ago that some people were not paying their fair share of taxes, meaning that we have missed out of £6 billion in tax revenue—money that could have been invested in our public services.

If any further proof were needed that Labour is winning the battle of ideas, it is our time-limited windfall tax on the oil and gas producers. Having originally opposed the creation of such a tax, the Tories were dragged kicking and screaming by Labour to create an energy profits levy. Even after yesterday’s announcement of a one-year extension, the Tories are still leaving gaping loopholes, meaning that many energy giants will still pay less in tax. Meanwhile, the SNP opposes our proper windfall tax while, just three weeks ago, it put up taxes on working people in Scotland—on teachers, nurses, and plumbers.

[Peter Grant]

Will the right hon. Lady give way?

[Rachel Reeves]

I will happily take another intervention, if the hon. Gentleman wants to defend higher taxes on working people. Bring it on!

[Peter Grant]

Does the shadow Chancellor not understand that the SNP’s position is that there should not be a single windfall tax that punishes only north-east Scotland? A windfall tax should be applied to every sector that has profiteered from war, covid and price increases. Does she not understand that the SNP’s income tax policy means that low-paid workers—the people the Labour party is supposed to protect—pay less income tax in Scotland than they would in England, and that nurses and care workers are paid more in Scotland than in England? That is true, is it not?

[Rachel Reeves]

All I would say to the hon. Gentleman is: put that on your leaflet! The fact is that nurses, teachers and plumbers are paying more tax in Scotland. At the same time, the energy giants that are making huge profits from the windfalls of war will pay less tax under the SNP. That is its record, and it should be ashamed of it.

Labour is committed to investing more in our schools and hospitals. That was a priority before the Budget, and it remains a priority, because public services are on their knees after 14 years of Conservative failure. Labour believes in aspiration for all our children, and we will not stand by while the roof falls in on state education under the Tories. History is repeating itself: children are again being taught in portacabins, as they were when I was at school under a Tory Government. When the Tories undervalue our young people, they are squandering their potential and undermining our whole country’s future. That is why the next Labour Government will close the tax loopholes enjoyed by private schools. The money raised from ending their exemption from business rates and VAT will instead go where it is needed—to help the 93% of children in our state schools.

I will always be clear that all the policies in our manifesto will be fully costed and fully funded. Now that the Tories have U-turned on their policy on non-doms, which we welcome, we will do the necessary work to show how our plans will be paid for. We will set that out in an orderly and responsible way. Our public services are in a mess under the Conservatives, but a Labour Government will begin to turn them around, give an immediate injection of cash to our schools and our hospitals, and tackle Tory waste, through a serious plan to grow our economy and provide the sustainable finance that our public services need.

It takes some nerve for the Chancellor to wag his finger at local councils this week, when the Tories and the Prime Minister have squandered billions of pounds of taxpayers’ hard-earned money. Who has used excessive numbers of management consultants in central Government? The Tories. Who signed the cheques and lost an additional £10 billion through dodgy personal protective equipment contracts? The Tories. Who left the vaults open, so that organised criminal gangs could help themselves to £7 billion of public money through covid fraud? The Tories. Who made a costly mess of HS2? The Tories. Who handed £500 million to the Rwanda Government, and has nothing to show for it? The Tories.

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[Peter Grant (Glenrothes) (SNP)]

I thought it was interesting when the topics for these Budget debates were set, because those topics are what the Government want us to believe the Budget is all about. There is no mention of public services, the cost of living or climate change and net zero for any of the three days. We are talking about rewarding work, and I want to talk about rewarding not only those currently in work, but those who will be and have previously been in the workforce, because all three groups have been shamefully failed in this Budget.

For me, rewarding works means paying everybody a living wage—not a minimum wage. The Minister should be listening, but he does not particularly care about this. A wage that is not enough to live on is not a living wage—it is as simple as that. There is nothing in the Budget about banning exploitative zero-hours contacts. There is nothing, obviously, about repealing the shameful anti-strike legislation that the Government are imposing on a great number of public sector workers.

I wondered whether it was just that the topics chosen were not that good, and perhaps the Chancellor said more about those subjects in his speech. I had a look at the speech on the Treasury website—all 7,260-odd words of it. The word “poverty” is mentioned once, but “low pay” and “zero-hours” not at all. Net zero gets a mention, because the Chancellor mentioned his colleague, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, and zero emissions is mentioned once. Climate has not a single mention and Brexit—not surprisingly, as we are not allowed to talk about it any more—has no mention.

By necessity, some of my remarks have to be about what is not in the Budget, as much as what is. This Government are heading to become the worst Government in history for falling living standards. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has told us that it is unlikely that real household incomes will be any higher at the end of this Parliament than they were at the beginning. How can we call it economic growth when people in their real lives, in real houses with real jobs, do not notice any improvement in their standard of living over an entire five years?

Tax as a percentage of GDP will soon be the highest it has ever been. We have seen a £66 billion increase in the tax burden in this Parliament alone, and far too often it is people on lower incomes who pick up the biggest share. As has been mentioned, the six-year freeze on tax thresholds will cost taxpayers an extra £30 billion in stealth tax by 2027-28, even allowing for the impact of the 2p national insurance cut. The UK’s interest payments as a percentage of national income are about to become the highest for 70 years. If someone is an international banker, the rewards from work can be rich indeed, but they are not for someone trying to scrape a living in any kind of normal job.

This Chancellor’s time in office has seen the longest unbroken run of declining living standards since records began. The Government talk about rewarding work, but it is quite the opposite. Income inequalities in the United Kingdom are higher than in any other large European economy. What has the United Kingdom done that they did not, and what has everyone else done that the United Kingdom did not do? Germany, for example, had a covid pandemic, just as we did. Germany is impacted by the war in Ukraine just as much as we are—possibly more so, because it is physically closer to it. Middle-income earners in the United Kingdom are 20% poorer than their equivalents in Germany. I wonder what it could be that affected the economy and living standards in the United Kingdom that has not had the same impact on Germany, France, Italy and other EU member states? We are not allowed to say the B-word, so I will leave the Chancellor to work it out for himself.

As the Child Poverty Action Group has pointed out, child poverty is not inevitable, but a choice. It has said:

“With the right policy changes we can substantially reduce the extent and depth of child poverty across the country.”

Members do not have to take its word for what might happen if policies were changed; they need only look to what has happened in Scotland, despite the fact that the Scottish Government have substantially fewer fiscal, monetary and legislative powers than this place. Scotland now has the “game-changing” Scottish child payment—that is not our word, but that of the Child Poverty Action Group. We have the child winter heating payment, supporting the most vulnerable young people with disabilities to cope with their fuel bills. We have free school meals for everybody in primary 1 to 5 and for eligible children throughout their time in school.

[Michael Shanks]

The hon. Member mentioned the Child Poverty Action Group. After the Scottish Government’s Budget, it said that it was “bitterly” disappointed and that, as it stands, the Budget will at best stall progress, hampering progress towards reducing child poverty. Does the hon. Member think his own Government are reducing child poverty as much as they could be?

[Peter Grant]

I will come on to that in a minute. The Scottish Government are perhaps not reducing child poverty as much as they could, because nobody is ever perfect, but they are doing a blooming sight more than any Government down here ever will. As I said, we have free school meals for everybody in the first five years of primary school and for a great many children right up until they leave school. We have followed the example of our Scandinavian friends by welcoming every newborn baby in Scotland with a baby box containing the essentials for the first six months of their life. That is not just about practical physical help; it is also about the difference it makes to a new mum. It simply says to them, “We think your new baby is somebody special. Your baby is welcome as a new citizen of our country.” We have more than 1,140 hours a year of early learning and childcare for every three-year-old and four-year-old, and all eligible two-year-olds.

[Karin Smyth]

Just to correct an earlier point, when the hon. Member said that the Scottish Government would do more than any Government down here, I helpfully remind him that the last Labour Government lifted hundreds of thousands of children—I think up to 1 million —out of poverty, and we would seek to do that sort of work again. Who is in government here in Westminster does make a difference, does he not agree?

[Peter Grant]

I am not saying that a Government here cannot do it—in fact, I am saying that a Government here can do it. The problem is that the Government, which the hon. Member’s party said we could trust with the welfare system, are not doing that.

We have also introduced free bus travel throughout Scotland for 2 million people, including all young people up to the age of 21. That is important, because it not only significantly helps those people with the cost of their travel, and therefore the cost of living, but it encourages young people not to get into the habit of travelling by car. It encourages them to get into the habit of seeing public transport as a viable option.

In answer to the hon. Member for Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Michael Shanks), independent analysis has indicated that 100,000 children in Scotland will be kept out of child poverty this year because of actions by the Scottish Government. If the UK Government were willing simply to do what has already been done in Scotland, there could be 1 million fewer children living in poverty in the United Kingdom. Child poverty is not inevitable; it is a deliberate political choice. Scotland has chosen to say no to child poverty. The Budget has chosen to allow it to continue and to grow.

As well as the right support for children in low-earning families, the Government could have announced any number of things to help people in work to have better and secure pay. I have already mentioned the living wage, and they could have strengthened protection for workers instead of taking away the right to strike of those working in all sorts of public sector work.

[Steve McCabe (Birmingham, Selly Oak) (Lab)]

On strengthening protection, is it not true that the SNP hired people on zero-hours contracts to deliver literature during the Rutherglen by-election?

[Peter Grant]

I read that in Private Eye—

[Steve McCabe]

It must be true, then.

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[Peter Grant]

It is in Private Eye and therefore it must be true. I do not know if that has been fact-checked. If the hon. Gentleman can provide me with evidence from something other than Private Eye, we will certainly look into it. I should say, incidentally, that the Labour party’s record of industrial relations in its own workforce is nothing to boast about. He might want to have a look in his own house first of all.

Among the other steps that the Government could take—I look forward to a likely incoming Labour Government committing to doing all this—they could outlaw despicable fire and rehire practices and support the Bill proposed by my hon. Friend the Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands). They could ban unpaid work trials, as was attempted by my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow South (Stewart Malcolm McDonald) in his private Member’s Bill. They could give people the right to flexible working, rather than making it feel as if it is not really proper working. They could finally take action, seven years after the Taylor review. They could repeal the anti-strike legislation. Incidentally, the Scottish Government have undertaken not to use any of the anti-strike provisions included in that legislation. I look forward to an incoming Labour Government undertaking not to use them, as a precursor to repealing them altogether.

There are some changes in the Budget that we can mention, although they do not go far enough. Changes to the high-income child benefit charge are certainly welcome, but they do not go far enough to catch up with the downturn in income people have suffered over the years of that freeze. In the same way, the VAT charge threshold for small businesses, which increased by £10,000 a year, is welcome, but that is not enough even to make up for the deterioration in small business income after seven years of that ongoing stealth tax. Of course, we still have child maintenance liability for a non-resident parent based on assumptions about wage levels and cost of living levels that are years out of date. The Government say they do not have time in the legislative programme to bring forward primary legislation to change it. However, last week the House finished three hours early because we had nothing to talk about. Come on—if they were serious about it, they would have done something about it.

I mentioned net zero and climate change earlier, and I welcome the confirmation of up to £120 million more —although the words “up to” worry me—for the green industries growth accelerator, which is, to quote the Chancellor,

“to build supply chains for new technology, ranging from offshore wind to carbon capture and storage.”—[Official Report, 6 March 2024; Vol. 746, c. 844.]

Can we get an assurance that the Government will not make the same mistakes with that as they did with contracts for difference? The former BiFab yard in Methil in my constituency went into administration because although it could have made jackets for offshore wind turbines under contracts for difference, firms chose to import them from halfway around the world. While workers who could have done that work in my constituency were being laid off, we were paying to transport heavy-engineered goods from the other side of the world. Will the Government commit to reviewing the criteria for the GIGA to include the manufacture of those jackets? They make up about 40% of the total cost of a turbine and 40% of the supply chain but are currently excluded from that incentive scheme. If included, that could help to bolster the workforce in my constituency and a number of others across the UK.

I would like the Government to welcome again the contribution that green hydrogen can make to our net zero future. I am very pleased that Methil in my constituency is home to H100, the world’s biggest ever conversion of domestic gas supply to run on clean, renewable green hydrogen. It is the biggest example of that kind of green energy innovation anywhere on the planet. The next stage was even more ambitious: the Government promised to support what they called a hydrogen town pilot to extend the same technology and the same practices into tens of thousands of houses. I would love to see that happening in Methil and the surrounding areas, but I would rather see it happening anywhere than not happening at all.

The Government promised an announcement in March last year; that is now a year overdue. I, and many others with an interest in clean energy technology, are concerned that the Government are simply losing enthusiasm for this world-leading work. We threw away our world-leading position on other green energies during the Thatcher years. We cannot afford to do it again.

Briefly, I point out that if we are talking about rewarding work, we must also extend that to how we reward those who have finished their working careers and now rely on the state pension to get by. In spite of all the rhetoric, we still have one of the meanest state pensions in western Europe. There are still millions of WASPI women—women against state pension inequality —but the Government hope that if they just ignore those women, they will go away. They will not, so the Government had better stop ignoring them. We have seen more than £1 billion illegally underpaid to pensioners—that is utterly scandalous —and woefully inadequate protection from pension scams both for people building up their private pensions and, as some Members will be all too aware, for pension funds such as those of London Capital & Finance, British Steel and United Kingdom Atomic Energy Agency Technology, and dozens of others.

We have a Budget that chooses to leave hundreds of thousands of children in poverty, chooses to allow the scandal of low pay and exploitative work practices to continue, and chooses to continue inflicting stealth taxes that hit low-paid workers hardest. In answer to what the shadow Chancellor said earlier, I do not have a problem with debating a progressive tax regime that has lower taxation for the low paid and higher taxation for those who are better off. When we are talking about high rates of tax and low rates of tax, though, we should remember the entire tax burden and not just be selective about income tax, for example.

Let us look at council tax. I am the proud possessor of two council tax bills, with one for my house in Glenrothes and one that is paid by the taxpayer for the flat I use while I am down here. So I have the flat in London and, fortunately for me, a very nice detached house in Glenrothes. The flat in London already costs more in council tax than the house in Glenrothes, and this year the Labour-controlled council whose area I live in is likely to increase the council tax by 7%, while the council in Fife has accepted the Scottish Government’s funding to allow it to freeze council tax. The council tax on the flat in London will therefore be 15% higher than that on a very nice, spacious detached house in Glenrothes. When we are talking about the different tax burden on people between the two countries, let us consider the entire tax burden, not just the narrowly defined income tax burden. Of course, as I mentioned before, one reason why some people in Scotland pay higher taxes is that they are paid more than their colleagues doing the same jobs south of the border.

The Budget chooses not to support the children of working people. It chooses not to support working people. Then, when people’s working lives are over, it treats them far worse than people of a similar age and similar background are entitled to be treated in almost any other civilised economy. By contrast, the SNP has a vision for a country where every child and every parent is valued and supported, and knows that they are valued and supported; every worker is guaranteed a fair wage; every worker is protected from exploitation; every pensioner is entitled to a pension that is enough to live on without having to fall back on state benefits; and people get the care they need as they grow older and less able to look after themselves, valuing and fairly rewarding not only today’s workers but the next generation of workers and previous generations of workers, all of whom have been let down by this Budget.

I hold out no great enthusiasm that an incoming Labour Government will significantly change the situation. I would like to be proved wrong, but I cannot really see it happening. During the shadow Chancellor’s speech—it may have been an intervention—it was said that if the Tories had any confidence in their record, they should name the date for the general election. Absolutely. Can I suggest that if the incoming Labour Government had any confidence in the record of the Union, they would have no hesitation in naming a date on which to put it to a democratic test? We will wait and see whether the incoming Labour Government are a greater respecter of the will of the people of Scotland than the outgoing Conservative Government.

In his closing remarks, the Chancellor said that

“those with the broadest shoulders should pay their fair share”,

and I absolutely agree. He also said:

“An economy based on sound money does not pass its bills to the next generation.”—[Official Report, 6 March 2024; Vol. 746, c. 839-50.]

Oh, really? I agree with both those statements. For that reason, among others, I cannot support this Budget, and it does not deserve the support of anyone else in this Chamber.

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[Dame Jackie Doyle-Price]

Yes, I agree. With hindsight, that was a big mistake. It was done with the best of intentions. Given that local authorities were in a new set of circumstances, there was a desire to give them freedom to be more relevant and to have fewer constraints, but it has given licence to risky behaviour. We will see further consequences of that in due course.

Clearly, we would all like to be in a much better place with regard to the strength and growth rate of our economy and the state of our public finances, but we need to reflect that the last 15 years have been challenging. We have had three significant shocks that have cumulatively made us poorer than we would like to be—that is just a fact. The 2008 financial crisis had to be managed, and we have had the consequences of the pandemic; one way or another, we locked down our economy for the best part of two years, which has clearly had a massive impact on growth. The billions that we spent on keeping people in their jobs still have to be paid for. There is also Ukraine. Not only do we need to support the people of Ukraine, but we need to address the consequences for energy prices.

Returning to the need for responsible leadership, we should level with the public about what these things mean. The public are not stupid, and they are not deceived by spin and rhetoric. They know that these shocks have consequences. If we do not treat people with the respect that they deserve by levelling with them, they will show us the same lack of respect. They understand that this all needs to be paid for. If we do not face up to that, we will end up compounding the challenges created by those political choices.

I return to the financial crisis. Clearly, there was a need for a massive intervention to prevent the whole banking system collapsing, but we got addicted to quantitative easing. The correction that should have taken place following that financial crisis never happened, because, guess what, we do not want middle-class people who vote to have a reduction in the value of their property. By sticking with that policy, we ended up with interest rates that were artificially low for a very long time, which completely distorted asset class prices. That meant that everyone put all their investments into property, which has contributed to massive inter- generational unfairness, because people cannot now afford to buy a house. Does that not just show the short-termism and the failure to get real, explain things to the public and make long-term financial decisions that will do the most to grow this country? We all bemoan the lack of growth in our economy but if we have generated a system where there is more profit to be made by investing in housing than in business and wealth creation, this is where we end up. We all need to make a determined effort to be more long-term in our decision making and not just pursue the retail benefits of going up a few percentage points in the opinion polls.

We spent billions during lockdown to keep people in their jobs, but, again, that has to be repaid by the taxpayer. People do understand that; they know that nothing can be made for free. We also need to address the wider consequences of what we did in lockdown, because there is a longer-term impact on our nation’s productivity. We were all psychologically damaged by being taken out of social circulation for two years, and we have ended up with work practices that are not always the most efficient. Worst of all, we have an expectation that the state will deal with every problem. Again, we need to get back to having the leadership that says, “We’ve all, collectively, got to fix this problem.” Fighting covid is the equivalent of fighting a war. After the second world war, everyone knew that there was going to be a massive effort to get our country back together again. We have pretended, never more so than on public services, that the situation is easier than it is.

I hear over and over again about underfunding, but what does that mean? If there is not enough money to deliver what people are expecting, we have to be honest about that and cut our cloth; we have to recognise that nothing can be delivered without being paid for, so we must either increase taxes or look at what we are delivering. We all want to get to a position where we are much richer and can pay for a lot more, but concessions will have to be made before we get to that place after the shock we have had to deal with.

We also need to have a much more honest debate about what we should be spending our money on. The situation in Ukraine clearly illustrates the need to spend more on defence. Since 1989, we have taken our eye off the ball, but we now face a more challenging and unstable world. To keep our energy prices low and stable, the best measure is to invest in defence at an increased rate.

The two biggest challenges that face us are perhaps not the focus of mature debate or leadership by this place. First, there is no doubt that the public think we have too much immigration, on which we have become dependent as a source of cheap labour. From 2006, the UK’s openness to immigration from eastern Europe had a very positive effect on growth, but it was “growth” as in the overall quantum. The impact on individual productivity, earnings and GDP per capita was poor, because earnings were depressed. Overall, the resentment towards immigration comes from a lot of those people who found their earnings diminished as a consequence. We think about the “Auf Wiedersehen, Pet” generation of builders and labourers who earned lots of money by going overseas. Post-2006, they found that their earnings were depleted because people here were choosing to employ Lithuanians and Poles, because that was cheaper labour. Naturally, they will have a clear view that immigration has reduced their earnings.

[Peter Grant]

The hon. Lady’s account is completely inaccurate. Often UK employers have employed workers from the European Union because the labour has not been available here. That is why, for example, we now have a crisis in recruitment to social care professions; we have stopped the Europeans coming in and there is nobody in the UK who is able to do the work.

[Dame Jackie Doyle-Price]

On social care, the hon. Gentleman has a fair point, but I do not think that what he says is true as regards HGV drivers, builders, labourers or anyone else in the construction industry. It is true that we have relied on cheap migrant labour to deliver social care, but that is largely because we have not valued social care as a profession. While we have had that abundance of cheap labour in the sector, we have also been able to kick the can down the road about how we fund social care and our later stage of life, so the impact has been not just on earnings but on allowing policymakers to be lazy about grappling with these difficult issues.

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[Michael Shanks]

I forgot she was a sitting Member, Mr Deputy Speaker; I apologise.

The Government are putting off any long-term spending plans to the next Government to avoid facing up to the reality that public services are crumbling. Shamefully, they are not putting aside a penny for the victims of the contaminated blood scandal or the victims of the Post Office scandal.

Minutes after the Chancellor sat down, we had the spectacle of the Under-Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, the hon. Member for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Andrew Bowie) refusing to say whether he would back his own Government’s plan to expand the windfall tax on the oil and gas industry. I am not sure if he is still on resignation watch or whether his chat with the Chancellor has moved him back to a stronger position, but yesterday, the Tories in the Scottish Parliament had a debate denouncing expanding the windfall tax, and the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, the hon. Member for Moray (Douglas Ross) has said he will vote against it. This morning, the Chancellor said it would present a little local difficulty. This is utter chaos, less than a day after he delivered the Budget. With any other Government, at any other time, they would be the laughing stock of the country, but so low have our expectations fallen that it is not even getting the attention it should.

We should welcome the Government’s conversion to Labour’s economic plans, following where Labour has led on the non-dom tax loophole or expanding the windfall tax. Now it is only the SNP that is out on a limb, saying that it does not support increasing a tax on the £1 billion a week profits from oil and gas, while happily putting up taxes for those earning £29,000 a year. In SNP Scotland, teachers, plumbers, police officers and nurses pay more; oil and gas giants do not.

[Peter Grant]

The hon. Member mentions the specific case of nurses. His colleagues were reluctant to acknowledge the fact that nurses in Scotland start off with much higher pay than those in England. I did some checks while others were speaking. A newly qualified ward sister in Scotland on 2023-24 rates, even allowing for slightly higher income tax on part of their earnings, is taking home £31,884 a year. His or her equivalent in England is taking home £30,960. Why does the hon. Gentleman want nurses in Scotland to earn £900 less when moving to England?

[Michael Shanks]

I know I am in a different party to the hon. Member, but I am in the same country, so it concerns me how nurses in Scotland are treated, and they are paying more tax than their colleagues in England. That is the reality of the SNP’s budget.

The truth is that a lack of economic growth across the UK means less for public services, despite the Scottish Government receiving almost £300 million in consequentials, including £237 million from increased spending in the NHS. I hope that the Scottish Government use that to invest directly in public services, and especially in Scotland’s NHS, where statistics this week have shown a damning picture of the SNP’s 17 years in power. The list of in-patients waiting more than 12 weeks has gone up 125 times in a decade. Cancer treatment within 31 days is three times worse than a decade ago. All the while, taxes are going up in Scotland and wage growth is stagnating.

The House of Commons Library has carried out some research that shows that weekly real earnings are lower today than in 2007 when Labour left office in Scotland and the SNP first came to power. The analysis shows that real wages continued to rise until 2010, when the Labour Government left power in the UK, but under the Tories and the SNP, the average Scot earns less in real terms now than they did in 2007. EY this week found that average employment growth in Scotland between 2024 and 2027 is expected to be just 0.8%, lagging beyond all other parts of the UK.

There are some really tough long-term issues in Scotland’s labour market that we must wrestle with. Long-term sickness appears to be a particular factor in economic inactivity in Scotland, accounting for nearly 32% of inactivity compared with 27% across the UK. There are difficult demographic trends, too. These issues are not easily resolved, but they require a Government with a laser focus on the problem, not one from a hopelessly distracted party.

The Secretary of State spoke about levels of employment in the UK. Recent research by the Work Foundation and Lancaster University found that of those in employment, 21% are in extreme job insecurity—workers who experience involuntary part-time work, involuntary temporary forms of work and precarious work—and a further 33% suffer from low or moderate insecurity. In other words, more than half of people currently employed have a degree of insecurity in their work. The UK is becoming a less secure, precarious place for people to work, and part of the cause of low productivity and rising levels of in-work property is that problem. It is a challenge for us to wrestle with, but we must do so.

The Tories are the architects of this economic mess, ably assisted by the growing incompetence of the SNP. Neither can be the solution. Scots will rightly ask themselves after 14 years of the Tories and after 17 years of the SNP whether they feel any better off. The answer will come back: no. They will ask if public services and the NHS are better now in Scotland than they were 17 years ago, and the answer will be no.

The only way out of this doom loop of economic chaos, higher taxes and stagnant living standards is real change, with a Government focused on growing the economy, making work pay and turning the UK into a green energy superpower. That is the change that Scotland needs. That is the change that the UK needs. That is the change that Labour will deliver. We need a general election so that we can get on and do it.

--- Later in debate ---

[Nigel Huddleston]

The hon. Gentleman gave quite a wish list earlier, which, by my calculations, could come out as being quite expensive. I do not know whether he has had conversations with the hon. Member for Leicester West, who is on his Front Bench.

On the hon. Gentleman’s point about non-doms, we will be scrapping the non-dom status, but we will be replacing the system with one that is residency based, including measures that will encourage and incentivise further investment into the UK, because we will be implementing transition measures. I did not hear the Opposition talk about them. Those transition measures are likely to encourage £15 billion of additional investment into the UK. Non-doms at the moment pay about £8.5 billion in taxes. We want to welcome people, but we recognise that those with the broadest shoulders must carry the greatest burden. None the less, we want to be internationally competitive, and the new system that we have proposed will be.

Returning to the childcare measures that I outlined earlier, this commitment would mean over £500 million of additional investment in childcare over the next two years. This will give childcare providers the confidence to invest in expanding at a crucial time, to deliver the free childcare expansion and help bridge the gap between parents’ career demands and their childcare needs.

This approach complements further changes that we are making to the tax system to incentivise parents to increase the hours they work. Yesterday, the Chancellor announced that from 6 April the high-income child benefit charge threshold will be raised to £60,000. In addition, the level at which child benefit is withdrawn completely will increase to £80,000. That was very much welcomed by many Members on the Conservative Benches, including my hon. Friends the Members for Devizes, for The Cotswolds and others. As a result, no one earning under £60,000 will now pay the charge. This will put pounds in parents’ pockets, saving nearly half a million families with children an average of £1,300 a year. According to the OBR, this change will also result in an increase in hours for those already working, which is equivalent to around 10,000 more people entering the workforce full time.

[Peter Grant]

I am grateful to the Minister for giving way. One of the remaining injustices with the high-income child benefit charge is that a single person earning £60,000 will have to pay the charge, but a couple earning £59,000 each will not, because it is assessed on a single earning. Do the Government have plans to amend that anomaly? If so, when can we expect to see that happen?

[Nigel Huddleston]

If the hon. Gentleman had not intervened and given me just one more second, I would have said that, going forward, we will also consult on moving the high-income child benefit charge to a household- based system, to be introduced by April 2026. That point was also raised by my hon. Friend the Member for Christchurch (Sir Christopher Chope), who pointed out the potential opportunities in other areas relating to household income. It is important, because our tax system is based on the principle of individual taxation, and there are many aspects of confidentiality and so on that are important in that as well. The Government will consult shortly on options to enable better targeting of economic support to households in times of crisis.