Northern Ireland Economy

Owen Smith Excerpts

Thursday 1st March 2012 Westminster Hall

[Owen Smith (Pontypridd) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve for the first time under your chairmanship, Mr Scott. I hope that Members here today and, perhaps more importantly, my constituents will forgive me, a Welshman, for speaking on St David’s day in a debate on Northern Ireland. I have seen colleagues speaking in the other Chamber, but I am delighted to be here speaking about Northern Ireland. Perhaps it will be recalled that I worked in Northern Ireland for several years as an adviser to the previous Government in a period when we did not have devolution in place in Northern Ireland, but when we were working towards delivering that.

Today’s debate has in many ways given us an insight into the radical changes that have taken place in Northern Ireland in the few short years between the period when I was working there and today. Of course, changes have taken place over a long period. The excellent, timely and passionate debate that we have had today on the economy of Northern Ireland is precisely the sort of debate we ought to be holding in this place and in the Stormont Assembly. It is not about security, policing or the latest atrocity, but about the things that are the bread and butter of any society in any body politic: the economy. The crucial issues are about how people earn their living, and the standard of living that they are able to enjoy because of that economy.

The Labour party played a tremendous role—I played a small part—and successive Governments have played a role in supporting the people of Northern Ireland to make the decisions that have allowed normalisation, as it is called, and allowed changes to come about. The Opposition will continue to play their part in standing shoulder to shoulder, as it were, with the people and the parties of Northern Ireland to try to further the cause of peace and normalisation, as well as the economic development of Northern Ireland. I know that Government Ministers will also want to do that, alongside—he ought to be right hon.—my hon. Friend the Member for Gedling (Vernon Coaker), who is the shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, and my hon. Friend the Member for Ealing North (Stephen Pound), who is a shadow Minister. They will play their part in trying to take matters forward.

It is a disappointment and a surprise—I feel I must mention it, given that hon. Members from Northern Ireland have mentioned it—that we do not have with us today either the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland or his deputy. That will surprise people in Northern Ireland. Although this is a Treasury debate, it is a Northern Ireland debate, too. It is disappointing that they are not here today. It is a feather in the cap of my hon. Friend the Member for Gedling, the shadow Secretary of State, that he is present. [Interruption.] The Minister may laugh, but in Northern Ireland people will not necessarily be laughing: I think they might be slightly concerned that the Secretary of State did not see fit to have someone here today.

There are many areas in which there is much agreement between the Government and ourselves, not just on policing and security and constitutional developments in Northern Ireland, but on the economy. We agree that there is, for all sorts of understandable and historical reasons, over-dependence on the public sector in Northern Ireland, and that too great a proportion of gross domestic product is spent by and in the public sector. We accept that the economy must be rebalanced over the long period and that we should build a robust, vibrant and wealth-generating private sector in Northern Ireland, as we must do in the rest of the UK. That means both building the indigenous, domestic private sector and attracting foreign direct investment from across the world. However, on some aspects of the economy, there are disagreements on what a Labour Government would do if we were in power and what the current Government are doing.

Let me first address the base line for the economy in Northern Ireland. As we have heard in today’s debate, it is a complex picture—one cannot take a simple snapshot of Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland economy has many great strengths, many of which were highlighted today by hon. Members. The right hon. Member for Belfast North (Mr Dodds), the hon. Member for Belfast East (Naomi Long) and my hon. Friend the Member for Belfast South (Dr McDonnell) all drew attention to the great strengths of the Northern Ireland economy. Northern Ireland attracted the second highest proportion of FDI out of all the regions in the UK.

I do not think anyone mentioned education. In my experience, Northern Ireland has a hugely educated work force, a hugely educated part of society and a young part of society. The transport and broadband infrastructure are crucial advantages. Lastly, the beauty and natural attractions of Northern Ireland—its people and topography—are wholly underexploited. We must do more to exploit the potential of tourism in Northern Ireland.

Of course, there are problems, just as there are in all parts of our economy. Gross value added per capita is lower in Northern Ireland than just about anywhere else in the UK—£15,000 or thereabouts per person versus £20,000 in England. Unemployment is a mixed picture. It is lower in Northern Ireland than in the UK—7.2% versus 8.2%. That is a legacy of the increase in employment in Northern Ireland, especially in retail and construction, which was part of the legacy of the ending of the troubles in the past decade. However, retail and construction are some areas that have suffered most in the economic downturn. Young people have also suffered in that period. My hon. Friend the Member for South Down (Ms Ritchie) highlighted that 18% of young people in Northern Ireland are unemployed, which is a price we should not be paying.

Of the people in work, we heard that around 30% of people working in Northern Ireland are in the public sector, versus 21% in the rest of the UK. We need to address that at some point. There is also a mixed picture for business in Northern Ireland, where indigenous, domestic start-up rates are low. FDI is, as we have heard, high, but its relative value is low, including the innovativeness of that FDI. On another metric—business expenditure on research and development—unfortunately the Province still does not fare well compared with the rest of the UK.

Many economic levers now sit with the Northern Ireland Executive, and that is absolutely right. Many of those levers are being pulled extremely effectively by the Northern Ireland Executive, but Westminster is still key. Under the current settlement, the Government in Westminster, whatever their complexion, still have to make critical decisions. What have the Government done since they took power in May 2010? The rhetoric has been extremely strong, and the volume of words produced about the Northern Ireland economy has been considerable. Notable, of course, is the document that many have referred to today, “Rebalancing the Northern Ireland economy”. The document talks about the need to reduce the deficit fairly while building enterprise.

Only this week, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland returned to the theme and gave an interesting speech at Queen’s university Belfast. He said:

“I’ve said many times that re-balancing the economy here could take up to 25 years. But it has to be our priority…not by taking an axe to the public sector…but by creating the conditions that enable the private sector to grow.”

We would agree with him about that, but we would also suggest that he looks at the facts that pertain to Northern Ireland and what has happened to the economy on his watch. Crucially, as we have heard again today, overall spending in Northern Ireland is being reduced by £4 billion over the spending period. We are seeing a 40% reduction in capital expenditure. Regarding public sector jobs—the ones I presume the Secretary of State did not want to take an axe to—he should read the report by the Office for National Statistics that came out today, which shows that 9,000 public sector jobs have been lost in Northern Ireland since the second quarter of 2010, when his Government came to power. There are now 218,000 public sector jobs in Northern Ireland, compared with 227,000 when the Labour Government left office.

I have a question for the Exchequer Secretary. We now know that 710,000 public sector jobs will be lost on this Government’s watch over the spending review. We do not have regional breakdowns for that figure, but the Irish congress of trade unions suggests that job losses in Northern Ireland could be as much as 26,000. Would the Minister care to offer his view as to how many public sector jobs will be lost in Northern Ireland on his watch? If he cannot answer that, will he go away and look at the issue? It is crucial that we have a clear understanding of the impact of the changes.

Another set of changes that is at the forefront of many people’s minds in Northern Ireland as we approach the Budget and the start of a financial year is welfare cuts. They will affect thousands of families across this country, including in Northern Ireland. I suggest that Ministers look at what the impact will be for ordinary families. The Library suggests that in Northern Ireland 5,000 families with young children, in which the parents are in part-time work, may lose as much as £4,000 a year as a result of the changes to the welfare thresholds. That is a huge amount of money for relatively low-paid families to lose. That is a measure of the impact of the Government’s changes. Those facts do not reconcile terribly well with the statement made in “Rebalancing the Northern Ireland Economy” that the Government want their changes to be fair; they show that the Government are not being fair.

[Mr Laurence Robertson]

The hon. Gentleman will be aware that one of the indicators in Northern Ireland that is not as good as in the rest of the UK is the figure regarding the economically active. Given that the welfare cap will be £26,000, which one would have to earn £35,000 to bring home, is he aware that the median wage in the private sector in Northern Ireland is £20,000? That is a lot less than £35,000. What would be the incentive for people to go out to work if the cap were not to be there?

[Owen Smith]

We need to make work pay—there is no doubt about that—and we need to make work attractive. However, the hon. Gentleman will know that while the unemployment rate may be relatively better than that of the rest of the UK, one of the blacker marks of the Northern Ireland economy is that the economic inactivity rate is worse—27% versus 23%. Such things are neither simple nor straightforward, and they will prove to be difficult. However, we need to ensure that we apply changes fairly and proportionately.

[The Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (Mr David Gauke)]

May I be clear about the two points the hon. Gentleman has raised on public sector employment and welfare cuts? Is he saying that if his party were in power, there would be no reduction in public sector jobs in Northern Ireland and no welfare cuts affecting Northern Ireland?

[Owen Smith]

No, I did not say that for a minute. We have not at any point said that there would not be any cuts. We have said that there would be cuts, although they would be on a different trajectory. I suggest that we would not have seen the same volume of cuts over the same period, because Labour Members do not believe, despite what the Secretary of State said in his remarks to Queen’s university Belfast, that we can grow the private sector and liberate its surpluses by cutting the public sector. That is poor economics and it will not work. We also believe that such an approach has been demonstrated as not working by the facts on the ground. That is why we are borrowing an extra £158 billion in the current spending period: to pay for the failure to get the economy moving. That is the truth.

I hate to tell the Minister, but another area in which the Government are failing in Northern Ireland is in respect of enterprise and getting enterprise moving. When one turns the page in the “Rebalancing the Northern Ireland Economy” document from the section about fairness and enterprise, one comes to what the Government think are the principal measures required to strengthen the private sector and promote fairness in Northern Ireland. First among them is a scheme to help new businesses in countries and regions outside London, the east and the south. It will exempt new businesses from £5,000 of employer national insurance contribution payments. The document says that that will help up to 15,000 businesses in Northern Ireland. I hate to tell the Minister but that scheme has so far helped 461 businesses in Northern Ireland, according to the Government’s own figures. That is just 3% of the target that was originally intended. I put it to him that that is a woeful performance.

Clearly, the Minister needs to consider the targeting of that scheme and whether he needs to revise it. I suggest that the Minister reads the bit elsewhere in the document that talks about the possibility of changing the parameters of that scheme and revising its targeting to expand it to all companies with fewer than 10 employees, as the Labour party suggests, as opposed to concentrating simply on start-ups. If he did that, those businesses might be able to get some of the billions of pounds that are currently languishing in the Treasury not being spent on incentivising enterprise.

Of course, the Minister could consider other tax possibilities. The document is quite insightful in showing us where the Treasury is contemplating different measures for Northern Ireland. One area is in respect of the annual investment allowances. It is very interesting that the document suggests that those annual investment allowances, which are designed to help capital intensive companies, manufacturing and so on, have been cut from £100,000 a year to £25,000 a year across the UK. Those are the sorts of companies one would have thought should be incentivised if one were serious about rebalancing the economy away from financial services towards a productive economy. Apparently, in Northern Ireland, that allowance could go back up to £100,000. That is a very interesting idea and I urge the Minister to think about that, not only in Northern Ireland, but across the UK.

Of course, the corporation tax measure is the big bazooka that we are hearing about the Government rolling out. The document talks about driving down corporation tax in Northern Ireland to bring it in line with the 12.5% in the south, as Members here today have also mentioned. Labour places great faith in the fact that parties in Northern Ireland have expressed some support for that measure, as did some 75% of respondents to the document. During the debate, it has been instructive to hear hon. Members highlight the risks—

[Mr Lee Scott (in the Chair)]

Order. May I politely remind the hon. Gentleman that I would like to give the Minister time to respond to this vital debate?

[Owen Smith]

I thought I had another minute until 25 past.

We, too, would highlight those risks in relation to corporation tax. It is very unclear what the dynamic effects will be on taxation or what the degree of volatility will be around corporation tax. It is a notoriously volatile tax, and Ministers in Northern Ireland and in the Treasury ought to be very mindful of that before opening this particular Pandora’s box.

Such an approach is not a silver bullet or the only club in the Chancellor’s bag. There are other things he could do. He could expand the NICs holiday; he could consider VAT across the board; or he could consider VAT in respect of the construction industry. Those are all familiar measures to the Minister. He knows that they are part of Labour’s five-point plan. If he is to be a wise Treasury Minister, I suggest that he needs to look very hard at them and urge his colleague, the Chancellor, to think about changing course for the good of Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK by adopting some of them in the forthcoming Budget.