Infrastructure (Financial Assistance) Bill

Nick Raynsford Excerpts

Monday 17th September 2012 Commons Chamber

[Danny Alexander]

By offering guarantees to a wide range of infrastructure projects that might otherwise be delayed because of lack of access to finance—thereby bringing those projects forward, or in some circumstances accelerating them—the Bill will, I hope, help to ensure that the businesses my hon. Friend is describing can access the quality of infrastructure they need to deliver their growth plans. In that sense, I think the Bill will make a big difference.

[Mr Nick Raynsford (Greenwich and Woolwich) (Lab)]

I have been listening carefully to what the Chief Secretary has been saying. I understand the argument in principle, but he has been short on specific illustrations. He will know that the national infrastructure plan identifies a significant number of schemes. Can he now tell us which schemes that are currently stalled and not proceeding he would anticipate getting the go-ahead as a result of the Bill being passed?

[Danny Alexander]

I have a good deal more detail to get to in my speech, and I shall do so as soon as I have got through the various interventions that have been made. However, I shall not list individual projects before we have agreed guarantees for them, for the very good reason that it would be wrong to set out in this House those projects that could potentially benefit from the Bill, as doing so could either disturb the commercial position of some of the finance that has already been secured or undermine the discussions that we are engaged in to put in place such guarantees.

--- Later in debate ---

[Danny Alexander]

I am going to make some progress; I shall take some more interventions later.

The Government intend to offer assistance in the form of guarantees, although the Bill makes provision for other forms of assistance that we intend to use only where unforeseen urgent provisions are required. We believe that up to £40 billion of investment in infrastructure could be brought forward or accelerated under the UK guarantee scheme, using the powers in the Bill. That will help to deliver core infrastructure that supports growth, to improve the UK’s energy, transport, water, waste and telecommunications, and it includes about £6 billion-worth of public-private partnership projects delivering essential public service infrastructure. We will issue guidelines and scrutinise proposals to ensure that any proposal that receives an infrastructure guarantee is nationally significant, financially credible, good value for the taxpayer, requires a guarantee to get under way and is ready to start within a year.

[Mr Raynsford]

rose—

[Danny Alexander]

I am going to make some progress, as I say, but I will take some more interventions at a later stage.

Since the projects we expect to back will be structured to minimise the potential of losses to the Exchequer, there will be minimal impact on public sector net borrowing as a result, except in the extreme circumstance that a guarantee is called upon or other forms of financial assistance are provided. We intend to levy a commercial charge for the services received by infrastructure providers, ensuring that companies pay a fair price for the benefits they receive, and that the taxpayer receives a fair price for any risk being taken. We also plan to use these powers to support up to £10 billion-worth of investment in housing.

[Mr Raynsford]

rose—

[Danny Alexander]

Now might be a good time to give way to the former Minister for Housing.

[Mr Raynsford]

I am grateful to the Chief Secretary for giving way, although this intervention is not on a housing matter, but relates to his earlier comment about “schemes of national significance”. As he will know, this was part of the original blueprint, yet I searched in vain through the fine print for any definition of “national significance”. Is the absence in the Bill of any such reference to nationally significant schemes a significant omission, or not? If not, how are the Government going to ensure that their objective of supporting schemes of national significance is met?

[Danny Alexander]

It is not an omission from the Bill, which puts in place broad and permanent powers to issue guarantees for infrastructure projects. The Government expect that under the UK guarantee scheme, which will be the first manifestation and use of the Bill’s powers, nationally significant projects will be the sorts of projects able to apply. That means projects listed in the national infrastructure plan or other such projects as may come forward, but the Bill gives a broader authority to the Treasury to issue guarantees in other circumstances. What I am describing is how the Government intend to use the powers in the Bill.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Nick Raynsford (Greenwich and Woolwich) (Lab)]

I draw attention to my interests as declared in the register.

There has been a paradox in this debate. We have heard a series of speeches by Members on both sides of the House setting out a persuasive case for increased infrastructure investment. Many have highlighted particular schemes in their constituencies that are fundamental to the future of their areas. At the same time, however, the Chief Secretary was either unable or unwilling to identify a single project that was likely to benefit from the Bill. Despite all the hyperbole that we have heard from the Government about its benefits, no Member will be able to go home tonight any more confident that the schemes that they desperately want and need for their constituency will go ahead. That is the conundrum in the Bill. It is not a bad Bill, and I and the Opposition will not oppose it, but there is deep scepticism about whether it will deliver all that is expected of it.

There is no question about the need for increased investment in infrastructure. Construction has been hit more severely by the recession than almost any other sector of the economy. Output has been falling quarter on quarter for the past year, and the situation is worsening, not improving. The forecasters in the industry are deeply pessimistic. The Construction Products Association forecasts two more years of decline and states:

“Between now and 2014, total construction is expected to lose £10 billion as public sector construction activity falls away sharply. Although this has been expected for some time following the government’s deficit reduction plan announcements, the hoped for recovery in the private sector, which was expected to offset these falls, has not materialised.”

Experian’s latest forecast, which is significantly more pessimistic than the previous one issued in March, states:

“The prognosis for construction is significantly weaker than in March…Significant recovery is now postponed until 2015”.

The problem is spread widely through all sectors of construction—industrial, commercial, residential, health, education, housing and infrastructure. All are looking very fragile, and almost all are at levels of activity substantially below those seen before the credit crunch.

Ironically, infrastructure was the sector of construction that best withstood the initial impact of the recession. In part, that reflected the fact that investment in infrastructure schemes takes a long time, so schemes that are in place are likely to roll on for some time. Although I shall be critical of the Government in many ways, I pay tribute to them for agreeing to maintain investment in Crossrail because there was doubt about that when they came to office, and it would have been catastrophic if they had pulled the plug on that scheme. Of course, it is now a major part of the ongoing infrastructure investment that brings real benefits. However, the latest Experian report confirms that infrastructure is no longer an engine of growth, and its September forecast is much more pessimistic than the one in March about the future prospects for infrastructure.

Housing is equally badly affected. In the 12 months that ended in June, just 98,000 homes were started, compared with 109,000 in the previous 12 months, which ended in June 2011. That is a 10% fall in the latest year, and the most recent figures imply that the situation is worsening. The second quarter of 2012 showed just 23,500 starts, compared with 29,900 in the second quarter of 2011—a fall of 22%.

It is worth recalling that the Treasury set out the criteria in July for schemes to qualify for backing under the Bill as being: nationally significant; ready to start—“shovel ready” is the informal way of putting it; financially credible; dependent on a guarantee and not otherwise financeable; and good value for the taxpayer. As my hon. Friend the Member for Walthamstow (Stella Creasy) said in her excellent speech, that implies that the schemes are almost perfect, but not quite perfect enough to get funding on their own, which raises a question about why they are otherwise unlikely to succeed. Many commentators have made that point.

Let me consider the first criterion—“nationally significant”. I intervened on the Chief Secretary—I am glad that he is back in his place—to ask whether there was any significance in the fact that the first criterion in the Treasury list is not repeated in the Bill. He assured me that I should not read anything into that. I remain slightly puzzled because, looking at the breadth of the definitions in clause 1(2), I am astonished at what is included. Many schemes that are in no way nationally significant could qualify under those criteria. I am therefore a little surprised that nationally significant schemes, which, I am sure, we all support, are not precisely defined as one of the priorities in the Bill. The lack of clarity on that and on the schemes that are likely to qualify make it hard to believe that the new guarantees will provide a rapid response to the problem of delayed or stalled infrastructure schemes.

In July, Lord Sassoon said that there were £40 billion-worth of projects in the national infrastructure plan that could be eligible for support under the scheme. He expressed the hope that the first guarantees would be granted this autumn. We are now only days from the official start of autumn, and just three months from its official end. Can we feel confident that Lord Sassoon’s expression of hope will be realised? [Interruption.] It is a very flexible autumn.

On housing, I am sceptical about the very ambitious targets for new homes. I think that the Chief Secretary referred to the possibility of up to 70,000 homes being started as a result of guarantees facilitated by the Bill. If we consider what is happening in the private sector, the problem is not supply, but lack of demand because people are nervous about their jobs and the economy, and because of the tight lending criteria that most lenders apply. The idea that simply facilitating additional supply by increasing loans will be a solution is somewhat optimistic. In the social housing sector, there is already a relatively well developed market for housing association bonds. Indeed, the trade magazine, Inside Housing, suggested that

“offering underwritten paper brings in uncertainty when it comes to take-up.”

According to an article in the magazine on 7 September, Legal & General, one of the biggest buyers of social housing bonds, reportedly said that it

“‘may look elsewhere’ if government guarantees drove down the price of housing association bonds.”

Other questions are highlighted in the latest issue of Inside Housing from 14 September:

“The social housing regulator is concerned that some housing associations are mistakenly planning to use the government’s commitment to underwrite borrowing to fund existing development plans or refinance more expensive debt already on their books”,

and the regulator is worried that that may result in schemes being delayed that otherwise would proceed while housing associations look for possible alternative funding sources. All in all, there are serious question marks about the scheme, and the Government’s confidence in unleashing a great quantity of new infrastructure investment seems to be misplaced. Having said that, it is not a bad Bill and the Labour party will not oppose it. We are, however, sceptical about whether it will deliver what it promises.