Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Nicholas Brown Excerpts

Wednesday 19th March 2014 Commons Chamber

[Mr Nicholas Brown (Newcastle upon Tyne East) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie) in this debate. I acknowledge the work that he and his Select Committee do on behalf of us all.

Some of the measures in today’s Budget will be welcome in the north-east of England, including the emphasis on manufacturing, the apprenticeships scheme, and the extension of the capital tax regime in enterprise zones. It would not be fair to say that the new leader of the worker’s party does not understand us; the statement on bingo duty shows that he has got to the very heart of our concerns. In my short contribution, I would like to address a number of the structural questions that form the context of today’s Budget, both nationally and internationally.

Income disparity in the United Kingdom has become starker over the past 25 years, with the growth of a class of people the noble Lord Lamont used to describe as the “internationally mobile”. In 1978-79, the top 1% paid 11% of all income tax, while in 2012-13 they paid 24%. The Chancellor made much of this in his address, saying that it proved that the wealthy were making their contribution. However, it is happening not because the very rich are being taxed more but because the top 1% of today are much richer than they were 30 years ago. They are also much richer relative to the rest of the population. For the rest of the population, real wages growth has steadily declined from 2.9% in the 1970s and ’80s to 1.5% in the 1990s, with a decline of 2.2% so far this decade. Of course, regular below-inflation pay rises in the public sector have a cumulative effect, and that is why such a policy cannot endure indefinitely. I was disappointed to hear what the Chancellor had to say about that today.

It is a fundamental truth that the gap between the richest and the poorest, in income terms, has increased substantially over the past 40 years. In 1979, the gap in weekly earnings between the richest and poorest 5% was £445; today it is £938. The richest 5% have seen weekly earnings increase by £531 since 1979, while the poorest 5% saw an increase of just £38. We are certainly not all in this together.

Our economy is largely a service-based economy. Services account for 79% of our economy and 83% of jobs. However, we should not forget the importance of manufacturing which, while accounting for 15% of the economy and only 8% of jobs, contributes a greater gross value added to the economy than financial services—£136 billion as against £115 billion. Manufacturing also accounts for over half of all our exports and three quarters of all research and development investment. While the UK economy remains at 1.4% below its pre-recession peak, manufacturing is at 10% below its 2008-09 peak. I am therefore not surprised that the Chancellor felt it necessary to pay some attention to that area.

As a country, we have a long-term productivity problem, which contributes to declining real wage growth and squeezes people’s living standards. Productivity fell by 0.3% on the previous quarter, following declines in 2012 and 2013. Despite improvements in the 1990s and the 2000s, the United Kingdom remained 10% behind the other G7 nations. The gap today is more marked, at 21%. The Government will say that they anticipate improvements as employers seek more from their work forces. I say we should be looking at some of the deeper structural problems that lead to poor productivity, such as education, skills development and training for both employees and employers.

For the north-east, these issues are of vital importance. Despite this morning’s welcome fall in unemployment of 2,000 people in the region and 38 in my constituency, we still have the highest unemployment rate of any United Kingdom region—9.5% compared with the national average of 7.2%. During recent months, the region has not seen consistent progress in reducing unemployment and it is still estimated that a further 60,000 private sector jobs are needed to make up for the gap with the other regions.

The shadow banking system, as a system operated through non-bank financial intermediaries and often beyond the scope of national regulations, requires much greater attention and understanding. The Financial Stability Board has estimated that the size of the shadow banking sector was €51 trillion in 2011, up from €21 trillion in 2002. That accounts for up to 30% of the total financial system, which is not properly scrutinised and, in my view, not even properly understood. Add a large amount of leverage into the equation and it is clear that the shadow banking system presents a clear risk to the global financial system. It was razor-thin capitalisation ratios held by financial institutions, created by unsustainable leverage, that contributed to the previous crash. The United Kingdom accounts for 12% of all shadow banking assets held through non-bank financial intermediaries, the third highest following the United States and the euro area.

There is a key question as to whether the state, or even nation states collectively, could once again step in to save financial institutions so soon after taking on the burden from 2008. Many financial institutions’ recorded asset values are close to, or even exceed, that of their host country’s GDP, including France, Belgium, Italy and Germany. The United Kingdom has one of the largest disparities, with the combined asset value of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC at 337% of UK GDP. That is a sobering thought.

Following the effect of the financial crisis, the combination of cuts in corporation tax and a weaker growth in taxable profits are contributing to what appears to be a longer-term decline in corporate revenues. Despite the United Kingdom historically receiving a higher proportion of revenues from corporate taxes than comparable countries, the Institute for Fiscal Studies confirms that the UK is seeing a downward trend in corporate tax revenues, which is likely to continue for the best part of the decade.

Corporate tax receipts will be at their lowest share of revenue by 2017-18—the level they were in the mid-1980s. Financial services receipts have declined from over 25% of corporate tax revenues before the crisis, to 11% in 2011-12. With corporate tax revenues declining and the rate being cut, there is concern over the extent of tax avoidance, evasion and non-payment by large corporations in the UK. Estimates of the losses vary. HMRC puts them at £35 billion, while Tax Research UK puts them at £70 billion. Whichever figure one takes, these are big figures.

There are remedies. The international dimension to these issues and the world trading environment is clear. Our country has an important role to play as part of the transnational attempts to deal with transnational offenders. The House should also play an enhanced role in scrutinising the progress that the Government are making on these great strategic issues. It is much to the credit of the Public Accounts Committee and the Treasury Committee that they have become two of the most influential Committees in the House, but we should look further and do more ourselves as a House.