Scottish Separation

Debate between Michael Connarty and William Bain

Tuesday 10th July 2012 Westminster Hall

[Mr Bain]

I will give way to the hon. Gentleman a little later; I want to make progress first.

I commend my hon. Friend the Member for Livingston and other hon. Members who have participated this morning in helping to ensure that the discussion on Scotland’s constitutional and economic future is informative and comprehensive, as we head towards what the Scottish people want—a clear, decisive, legal, single-question referendum on whether to stay within the United Kingdom or leave for good.

There are three points that the debate this morning has crystallised in the minds of hon. Members and those we represent. At a time of economic uncertainty in the eurozone, with economic demand predicted to fall this year and 16 million people out of work, it would be an act of folly to separate fiscal, monetary and financial policy in the way that Scottish National party members have proposed. Both the eurozone and our economies are faced with a classic liquidity trap. Keynes was very clear that fiscal, monetary and financial policy must not work against one another in such circumstances. We in the Opposition have huge concerns about how the Government are avoiding any flexibility on fiscal policy to stimulate demand and kick-start growth at home. It is a failure of policy, not a failure of the state of which we are an integral part.

The overwhelming evidence from respected economic commentators, such as Martin Wolf and John Kay in evidence to the Select Committee on Scottish Affairs, is clear and unambiguous: separation would lead to higher borrowing costs for a separate Scotland. Even under the SNP’s purported split of oil and gas revenues, with 90% being apportioned to a separate Scotland—not the universally accepted position under international law—the national debt inherited by a separate Scotland would be 70% of GDP.

On a per capita split of oil and gas revenues, debt would rise to 80% of GDP by 2014. On the deficit, even using the SNP’s preferred measure, including a geographical split of oil and gas revenues, the average deficit would have been 4% over the past five years. Three leading credit agencies have indicated that Scotland would not inherit the UK’s credit rating on separation, which would increase borrowing costs.

The First Minister says that, with the oil and gas revenues, Scotland would be the sixth richest country in the world, but to achieve that the great centraliser would have to become the great nationaliser, and there is no prospect of even the present First Minister expropriating the assets of overseas oil and gas companies to which he is in such thrall.

[Michael Connarty (Linlithgow and East Falkirk) (Lab)]

Is my hon. Friend aware of what was said at the meeting of the UK oil and gas industry group a few days ago—that it is likely that the gas price, because the US is about to go into surplus in gas and the price is falling, may be set in the North sea area at a much lower level than now, which would undermine the revenues coming from the North sea to any future Government of the UK or Scotland?

[Mr Bain]

Indeed, that is a powerful point. This year’s report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research concluded that Scotland would be a significantly indebted nation on separation, with a substantial trade deficit, no insurance from risk sharing and no further fiscal transfers, which would leave us over-dependent on those very fluctuating oil and gas revenues. The strain would have to be put on borrowing or tax hikes to fund current spending.

As the economist, Brian Ashcroft, pointed out recently, the only tools available to a separate Scotland to manage aggregate demand would be of the limited fiscal variety remaining under the terms of a currency union treaty with the United Kingdom; so if inflation took off, there would have to be tax rises, a fall in public spending, or a combination of the two—hardly a recipe for economic stability or social fairness.

Those campaigning for separation never tell us what the size or role of the state would be in a post-separation world. They are keen to promise voters everything from higher benefits and pensions to lower taxes, but never with any viable fiscal prospectus to underpin such aspirations. Their ambition is to have Irish levels of taxation, but Scandinavian-style public services. That is a cruel deception to sell to the electorate, and that fatal flaw in the argument has contributed to the fall in support for separation in recent months.