Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation
Debate between Max Wilkinson and Bernard Jenkin(1 week ago)
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Sir Bernard Jenkin
If the hon. Gentleman is saying, “If only we were not doing this later retirement thing, there would be more jobs for young people,” I have to say that managing the economy in that way is not very successful. It does not work.
On the forecast, the Government set great store by what the IMF says about the UK’s deficit reduction programme. The Red Book states:
“The IMF forecasts that the UK’s deficit reduction this year will be bigger than any other G20 country.”
I am afraid that there are a lot of lemmings rushing over cliffs in that G20 bloc. It is not a good benchmark for success. In any case, the forecast is based on the forecast that the Government have given to the IMF, and the reduction has not been delivered yet. The Government have not started to deliver the debt reduction programme. The OBR says that debt rises from 95.5% of GDP this year to 97.3% in 2028-29. The headroom is just £15 billion in 2029-30, which is £7 billion less than at the last Budget. The OBR says there is only a 56% chance of meeting the rule. As the bond markets digest this Budget, I am not sure they will be quite as sanguine as they have been.
I will end by responding to a point that we heard from the hon. Member for Hornsey and Friern Barnet (Catherine West). She talked about us getting back into the European Union and said that 60% of the economy is dependent upon trade with Europe. That is rubbish. What proportion of GDP do we export to the EU in goods? The single market is about goods. Incidentally, our record on services exports outside the EU is that there has been a dramatic, massive increase.
Sir Bernard Jenkin
No, I will not give away. Only 5.9% of the UK economy is goods exports to the EU. A much larger proportion goes outside the EU. Incidentally, during our period of membership, the proportion of GDP that we exported to the EU was in steady decline from 1992 to 2021. Other factors have led to the decline in our exports with the EU.
Overall—this is the astonishing thing, and I will end on this point—our economy has outgrown France and Germany since 1992. Leaving the EU has not reversed that trend. I wonder whether Government Members do not understand the irony when they say, “We are the fastest-growing economy in the G7.” That has often been the case, because the EU is not a very efficient market and does not add much value to our economy. In fact, we have grown our exports to the rest of the world.
Sir Bernard Jenkin
No, I am not giving way; I have given way twice. [Interruption.] Members may shout me down, but they do not want to hear the facts. The fact is that our economy is now growing faster outside the EU than it would have done, because of two sectors: financial services, and tech and AI. They are not regulated by the EU. Employment in the City of London has doubled since 2016. All the doom-mongers who told us that the City was finished were wrong.
Budget Resolutions
Debate between Max Wilkinson and Bernard Jenkin(11 months, 1 week ago)
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Sir Bernard Jenkin (Harwich and North Essex) (Con)
It gives me a certain pleasure to share some agreement about the need for more resource in defence and resilience with the hon. Member for Warwick and Leamington (Matt Western). For all the Government’s talk of increasing spending on defence, the vast bulk of the promise they have made is after this spending period, and the small increase that has been allowed for in these spending plans is not even sufficient to make up for the problems that the Ministry of Defence has managing its own programmes. There is now a huge row going on there about what it is going to have to cut in order to stay within the spending envelop set by the Treasury. It is not a new problem, but it is a significant one, and it is one that underlines the need for the Ministry of Defence to adapt to a very different climate—a much more warlike and adaptive system for acquiring military kit.
The great theme of this Budget and the last, to which the hon. Member for Warwick and Leamington referred, is growth. I think we need to be realistic that the growth rate was flattened by the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and our productivity rate never recovered from that period. It is a puzzle. It is partly because our economy is more and more service orientated, which is labour intensive, but I think it is also because we have expanded the public sector so dramatically in recent years.
Public sector productivity is way below what it was before covid—it has not recovered. The productivity of the national health service is lamentable. These are issues of leadership, organisation and efficiency. The Government need to look at getting much better value for money for what we are spending, given that this country now has the highest ever peacetime levels of public expenditure.
Max Wilkinson (Cheltenham) (LD)
Will the hon. Member accept that some of the blossoming of the public sector in this country is as a result of Brexit, for which he advocated over very many years?
Sir Bernard Jenkin
I am tempted not to be drawn into the rather silly Brexit debate that seems to go on. It was notable that the Government spoofed towards the idea that they would make Brexit the scapegoat for the economy, but actually very little has come out from them on that. The Liberal Democrats may think, “Oh, if only we had a customs union to deal with the European Union, we would be £90 billion better off,” but that is fantasy economics. Why does the hon. Gentleman think that the Treasury is not saying that? Because it is not true—it is complete rubbish.
The idea that we have lost 4% of GDP as a result of Brexit is based on a very flimsy piece of evidence: a report put together from 13 forecasts made in 2016 and 2017, all before the Brexit deal was completed and we had a free trade agreement. It has never come to pass. In fact, a respected commentator, Wolfgang Münchau, said that we were approximating along growth rates in line with France and Germany before we left the European Union, and that our leaving the European Union was the “economic non-event” of the century. We have been approximating along at about the same growth rates. The very dire forecasts were based on the idea that there was going to be a 25% decline in our trade—that has not happened. There has been a marginal decline in our trade with the EU—[Interruption.]