Ukraine

Lord Whitty Excerpts

Friday 25th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Whitty (Lab)]

My Lords, I have listened to the vast majority of speeches in this debate. I will comment on a few of them, but I pay particular tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, who has perhaps put an element of realism into this debate, even though I do not agree with all his conclusions. We are faced with a much bigger problem than many speakers have acknowledged.

I congratulate my noble friend Lord Spellar and welcome him to this House. I have known him for half a century or more. He and I used to be opposite numbers in rival trade unions for many years. Over the years, we have not agreed on everything, but his experience, his knowledge and particularly his understanding of the industrial side of our life will be a great benefit to this House, and I bid him welcome.

I was slightly surprised that it took quite a long time before the biggest elephant in the room—or possibly elephant out of the room—was mentioned. It fell to the noble Baroness, Lady Fall, who is not in her place, to say that what happens in the war in Ukraine, despite us deploring the terrible suffering of the Ukrainian people and the destruction of the infrastructure and the grain and the obscenity of Putin’s war, will be decided, to a large extent, in a fortnight’s time in Washington—or rather, in polling booths across the United States. If President Trump wins, it changes the situation entirely. He says he is going to try to get peace within 48 hours, and he is going to cut off the current level, as least, of the support America is giving in arms, military support and money to Ukraine. I have to say that, even if Kamala Harris wins, there may well be an increase in support in Congress for the Republican Party, which might well have the same result if it can block expenditure on Ukraine.

That transforms the situation for Europe. If America is not Ukraine’s backer, we are in a situation where it will be even worse than the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, indicates. There will be no peace, but there will be further Russian success. There are ways of offsetting that, and it is of course possible that President Trump will not actually do what he says he is going to do—it has been known—but I think we will have to gauge public opinion as well as political opinion within the United States. They are tiring of this Ukrainian war and, as the noble Lord, Lord Balfe, said, this is also the case in parts of Europe.

One of my great regrets is that, during our membership of the European Union, both parties in Britain by and large resisted the European Union developing its own defence capabilities. I think that now has to be rectified. I am glad to see that my right honourable friends John Healey and David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, have been making approaches to Germany, France and the European Union as a whole to try to pull together a more coherent European-level defence capability. But, as far as Ukraine is concerned, it is probably too late. I commend those efforts and I hope that they increase. I hope that we and the French and Germans, in particular, can give Ukraine additional help in terms of mobilising the defence industries of those three countries, which are very formidable, in support of Ukraine’s efforts. But, in the short term, at least, there will be a shortfall of help to Ukraine, and the Ukrainians, despite their terrible losses and their superhuman efforts to resist the Russian invasion, will be faced with having to make some sort of accommodation with the Russians. It will not be a formal peace. We cannot accept the illegal occupation of any Ukrainian territory in any formal way, but there may well be a ceasefire that will see the Russians still in occupation of parts of what is legally, and ought to be, part of Ukrainian territory. That is a terrible outcome, but I am only being realistic here.

If the Americans belie what has been said before the election and continue to support the Ukrainians, we should continue to support them. If they do not, however, we have to build up within Europe, particularly with the French and Germans, a united approach to stop Ukraine being completely smothered by Russia and to ensure that there is an unsatisfactory and unjust peace, or ceasefire, at least, that stops the suffering and the destruction of Ukrainian society, the killing and maiming of Ukrainian civilians as well as military personnel and the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. If we manage to freeze the situation, it will involve a superhuman effort at European level, which will have to be led by the current Government, because the French and German Governments are lame ducks. Chancellor Scholz and President Macron may not be there in two years’ time and we will have to take the lead. I hope that my colleagues are up for it, because a superhuman effort will be required, not just for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole and, indeed, the free world.